Trading Profit Today / ECB Interest Rate Decision

November 30, 2005

I gained nothing and lost nothing today.  It really is tough to trade at my full-time job.  I’m hoping that if I can successfully trade with my existing funds, I’ll quit my job and work for myself.  I have a lot of fun trading and would love to do it full time.

I had EUR/USD positions that I opened and closed within minutes because of my inexperience.  I forgot that the ECB Interest Rate Decision is in the early morning and the currency pair may be volatile. 

The ECB are expected to raise rates to 2.25.  This may have meant gains for the euro against the USD but with the bullish US reports this week, traders sentiment for the potential of more than 2 rate increases by the Fed has increased.

Bloomberg: Dollar May Strengthen on Speculation Report to Show Improving U.S. Growth

November 30, 2005

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) — The dollar may gain on speculation a
government report today will show manufacturing expanded in
November, suggesting growth in the world’s largest economy is
strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

Higher U.S. rates than in Europe and Japan have helped the
[Read more]

Bloomberg: Dollar May Strengthen on Speculation Report to Show Improving U.S. Growth

November 30, 2005

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) — The dollar may gain on speculation a
government report today will show manufacturing expanded in
November, suggesting growth in the world’s largest economy is
strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

Higher U.S. rates than in Europe and Japan have helped the
[Read more]

Bloomberg: Dollar Posts its First Three-Month Gain Versus the Euro, Yen Since 2002

November 30, 2005

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — The dollar posted its first three-
month gain against the euro and yen in almost four years as the
U.S. economy expands faster than Europe and Japan and the Federal
Reserve keeps raising interest rates.

The U.S. currency is also poised for the first annual
[Read more]

DailyFX: Forex: Dollar On A Rollercoaster

November 30, 2005

A wild ride for the dollar after yesterday’s solid gains boosted theUSDCHF currency pair to slightly below 1.3200.  Since hitting theintraday high of 1.3176, the currency pair has slid to just above1.3120, then bounced higher again to currently trade at 1.3145. Indecision seems to be the overall theme today in light of upbeateconomic data in the world’s largest economy.  According to theCommerce Department, U.S. gross domestic product remained healthy,climbing 4.3 percent on an annualized basis.  This continues theupward trend that we have been seeing this past year as estimates beganat 3.3 percent in the first quarter.  It also suggests that growthremains underpinned as the effects of hurricane devastation in the Gulfregion dissipates.  Additionally, consumer spending was on the upand up, rising 4.2 percent as consumers deal with the effects of higherfuel costs and is reflective of earlier upticks in recent confidencedata.  Coupled with higher than expected Chicago manufacturingdata, positive speculation remains on further increases in interestrates when the Federal Reserve next meets.  However, withinflation seemingly contained, the continuance of such rates look toremain questionable.
Complete Story

DailyFX: Currency Focus: Loonie Action Confined In Light Of Growth

November 30, 2005

Speculation earlier on led to incremental weakness in the USDCADcurrency pair as the major was contained in a roughly 50 piprange.  Lending to Canadian dollar bullishness, gross domesticproduct for the world’s eighth largest economy expanded more thanestimated for the quarter.  Expanding at a3.2 percent rate in theprevious period, third quarter growth rose 3.6 percent.  This nowtopples earlier government estimates of 2.4 percent and causeseconomists to anticipate further rate hikes to contain inflation. According to Canada’s broadest measure of price increases, prices rose1.9 percent in the quarter with energy spikes contributing to thefigure.  Meanwhile, overall inflation is steady at 2.6 percent,above the Bank of Canada’s benchmark median.  This now paves theway for definitive tightening policy as Governor David Dodge looks tocurb inflationary pressures earlier rather than later, effectivelynarrowing the interest rate differential between the U.S. and its majortrading partner.  Ultimately, this will weigh heavily on theunderlying currency pair as questions remain abound over the durationof the current U.S. tightening policy.  Subsequently, interestshould be light until Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report isreleased.
Complete Story

Yuan Sets High Against Dollar

November 30, 2005

With pressure from the U.S. on the Chinese, the Yuan set a high against the Dollar yesterday.  This may just be a veiled gesture to the U.S.  If it really meant anything, shouldn’t the Yen and other Asian currencies been boosted?

Yuan Sets High Against Dollar

 

Financial Times: Rising pound takes centre stage

November 30, 2005

Sterling was the big winner in the currency market on Wednesday, despite a lack of newsflow to justify the move. Instead the finger was firmly pointed at merger and acquisition-related flows.
Complete Story

Trading Forex Today

November 30, 2005

I have 2 open positions today that can be viewed at My Trade History.

The first was a short of GBP/USD 1.7310.  With the 3 hour charts showing an uptrend, I was looking for a swing off of the 38.2% fibonacci at 1.7330.  Currently it looks to be holding resistance there.  If the bounce doesn’t occur, I’ll stop of the position at the 1.7348, a couple of pips above today’s high.

The second trade was a short of USD/JPY at 119.53.  I was trading the bounce off the recent downtrend line.  Mainly the 4 hour chart shows divergence in the high price peaks  and momentum high peaks. 

Both are stuck in neutral territory right now (albeit a bit down)

momemtum price divergence

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Back to work

November 30, 2005

I took off yesterday so I had the day to dedicate to currency trading.  Today I’m back to my full-time job with limited time to trade.  In addition, my Intellichart desktop doesn’t work through the proxy here so I can only use the limited web browser intellicharts which don’t give me many things that the desktop version does.

I’ve been looking for a charting package and nothing seems to beat the Intellichart Desktop for the price of $100 USD a month.  I inquired about esignal but it is a little above my budget.  The free charting varieties don’t quite cut it. 

If anyone has any suggestions on charting platforms, it would be appreciated.   

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