New York Session – October 28, 2009 4:59 PM
October 28, 2009
The risk unwind continued in NY trading as economic data out the US again suggested the recovery will be anemic at best. US equities slipped another two percent in the fourth consecutive decline and have now unwound nearly -5% of gains since last Thursday’s close. Full text »
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Global Economy Shows Signs of Recovery
October 28, 2009
Things picking up in other parts of the world
Despite the fact that the U.S. economic recovery seems to have stalled (prompting a gain by the greenback in currency trading), there are signs that elsewhere in the world things are intensifying.
Indeed, Asia is showing signs that the economic recovery is picking up. Australia saw an unexpectedly high increase in its inflation, and is expected to raise interest rates again in November. China is reporting that it will see substantial economic growth this year.
So, even though consumer confidence data is dropping in the U.S., and there are some concerns about today’s durable goods orders, it appears that elsewhere in the world, the global economic recovery is underway.
Will Asia be able to pull the rest of us up?
See Also
- Looking for Currency Trading Trends
Forex trading on the currency market
EUR/USD Could Tumble to 1.4700 on Economic Data
October 28, 2009
U.S. dollar could gain the upper hand in forex trading
Right now the U.S. dollar is making headway in forex trading on the currency market as things get a little jittery for investors. Concerns about the economic recovery were raised with yesterday’s surprisingly unpleasant consumer confidence numbers.
As a result, forex traders are turning to the safety of the dollar and easing away from the risk trade. As things are going, it is possible that the EUR/USD currency pair could fall. GFT’s Boris Schlossberg explains the situation in FX360:
Yesterday’s shocker of US consumer confidence number continues to weigh on the currency market with many participants now questioning the strength of the economic rebound. That’s why today’s US Durable Goods report could prove pivotal to this week’s direction of trade. The market anticipates a jump to 0.6% in the core number from -0.3% the month prior. However, if the data once again misses and prints flat or negative on the month risk aversion flows are likely to accelerate with EUR/USD
possibly drifting towards 1.4700 by the end of North American session.
If more unpleasant economic data makes an appearance, the inadequate economic recovery will be fully exposed and the risk trade could suffer a serious blow.
See Also
- Information for Forex Traders
Forex trading on the currency market
Asia Session – October 28, 2009 1:13 AM
October 28, 2009
The Dollar once again was able to hold on to gains made overnight while the yen soared with a return of risk aversion sweeping through the market. The dollar posted a new high of 1.4770 versus the Euro earlier in NY, and was able to remain in that ballpark through the better part of Asian trade. EUR/USD entered the session near 1.4790, and barely poked over the 1.4820 level for a Asian high in a day short on action. Full text »
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New York Session – October 27, 2009 5:47 PM
October 27, 2009
Risk appetite came off the boil in NY trading and the US dollar was promptly better bid. US economic data provided the catalyst as October consumer confidence disappointed in a big way. The headline index sank to 47.7 from 53.4 and given that the market was looking for an increase, the surprise was palpable.
Full text »
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Euro Forex Trading Forecast
October 27, 2009
The euro could head lower in currency trading
Yesterday, the U.S. dollar knocked the risk trade off course. Earlier today, though, things turned a bit and the risk trade came back as the European stock market moved higher. Things could change again, though, prompting another dollar rally, depending on what happens today with economic data.
Indeed, all eyes are on consumer confidence data in the U.S., waiting to see whether or not the expected increase in confidence pans out. GFT’s Boris Schlossberg looks at the possible effects of the data on the euro forex trading forecast in FX360:
With EZ calendar barren today, save for third tier data, attention will turn to the North American session where the most important release of the day will be the Consumer confidence numbers due at 14:00 GMT. The market anticipates a slight rise to 53.7 from 53.1 the month prior, but given the miss in U of Michigan numbers and the stall in the rate of improvement of weekly jobless claims, the possibility of downward surprise remains strong. A miss on the data could spur further risk aversion in equities and pull the EUR/USD
down to a test of 1.4800 as correction in the recovery trade looks likely to continue.
Clearly, a lot is riding on economic data today, and it will be interesting to see how things play out going forward in forex trading.
See Also
- Economic Data and teh Forex Trading Forecast
Currency trading on the FX market
Will the Dollar Rally Return in Forex Trading?
October 27, 2009
Currency trading with the greenback
Yesterday, the U.S. dollar rallied in forex trading as major stock indices dropped and risk aversion set in. In currency trading, the greenback still retains some of its safe haven cachet. As equities plunged, investors turned to the U.S. dollar for safety.
Today, though, in early currency trading on the FX market, the story is a bit different. The dollar rally has petered out in forex trading, and the greenback is lower across the board. This state of affairs may not remain for long, though. Economic data today is expected to influence the stock market, and a drop could send the dollar higher again.
GFT’s Kathy Lien takes a look in FX360 at what could help the dollar rally return, and give it some legs:
If currencies continue to take their cue from equities, then a larger than expected drop in confidence could drive equities lower and the dollar higher in the process as traders unwind some of their recovery trades. Another thing to keep in mind is that the Fed has committed to ending treasury purchases by October 31st. This could lift yields which would help the U.S. dollar.
See Also
- Looking for Trends in Forex Trading
Currency trading on the FX market
London Session – October 27, 2009 7:07 AM
October 27, 2009
A wave of USD buying at the London open unwound the better tone in EUR/USD that had emerged during Asian hours. A break below the EUR/GBP0.9100 opened the floodgates for EUR supply and this no doubt kept the pressure on EUR/USD, though the latter has since recovered from the morning’s lows. Sterling continues to find support on talk that the abysmal Q3 GDP report will be revised higher. European stocks have managed to shrug off their weak start and this provided the later support for EUR/USD. While the movements in stock market remain a key determinant of direction for the USD, the proximity of the next FOMC and G-20 Finance ministers meeting is likely to ensure the USD finds support over the next couple of weeks. Full text »
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Asia Session – October 27, 2009 1:42 AM
October 27, 2009
After dynamic moves earlier in New York where the dollar was catapulted off of recent lows, trading in Asia was orderly and range bound as the dollar mostly retained those earlier gains.
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New York Session – October 26, 2009 5:00 PM
October 26, 2009
Technicals dominated in NY trading as economic news was scarce. The strong negative correlation between risky assets and the US dollar remained solid and the buck benefited from a large unwind in risk appetite. US equities closed down -1.2% after another attempt of 1100 on the S&P failed miserably. EUR/USD followed stocks closely and the break below 1.50 elicited some major fireworks. The pair never looked back on its way to a low near the 1.4850/45 zone. The parabolic move looks a touch overdone in the short-term and we would not be surprised to see a rebound overnight. Full text »
