New York Session – October 27, 2010 4:35 PM

October 27, 2010

The dollar continued to firm as traders reduced short positions ahead of next week’s Fed meeting on speculation over the extent and amount of potential quantitative easing. US economic data was better than expected although a closer look into the numbers left investors uninspired. Durable goods orders for September surprised to the upside coming in much stronger than the expected +2.0%. The headline was released at +3.3% up from the prior month’s -1.0%. This was largely due to increases in aircraft orders. Durables ex transportation printed -0.8% (cons. +0.5% prior +1.9%) and nondefense capital goods orders ex air fell to -0.6% from the previous +4.8%. US new home sales also beat expectations with 307K purchases in September (cons. 300K). While this reading was up from the previous month’s 288K it was still near the record low levels of 282K seen in May. The RBNZ interest rate announcement was just released at the close where they rates unchanged at 3.00% Full text »

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Can the U.S. Dollar Maintain its Edge?

October 27, 2010

Greenback higher in currency trading

The U.S. dollar is moving higher in forex trading today, gaining against the majors. Indeed, the greenback is showing strength in currency trading on the FX market as traders re-evaluate what they think the Fed will announce next week.

Many believe that the Fed’s quantitative easing will not be as dramatic as originally expected. As a result, the U.S. dollar seems to have been oversold. Additionally, there are some thoughts that worries over the deficit are overblown.

For now, the forex trading forecast for the U.S. dollar is a positive one. Greenback is higher in currency trading against the euro, yen, sterling and Aussie, and it does not show many signs of flagging in the immediate future.

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Sterling Gets Help from GDP Reading

October 27, 2010

U.K. pound gains in forex trading

Sterling has been doing reasonably well in the crosses today, gaining some strength on the good news out of Britain. Indeed, the U.K. pound saw some gains in forex trading on the currency market, following its GDP announcement.

Third quarter GDP beat expectations, and yesterday’s news about the U.K. deficit is still helping somewhat. These positive developments indicate that perhaps the Bank of England will not need to increase economic stimulus after all.

Also moving higher today is the U.S. dollar.

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London Session – October 27, 2010 6:29 AM

October 27, 2010

Investors re-assess the situation Full text »

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Asia Session – October 27, 2010 1:46 AM

October 27, 2010

The Dollar made a rare move higher today in Asia as reports leaked that the upcoming QEII expected from the US Federal Reserve next week may not be as drastic as expected. Rumors are that the Fed will likely initiate a program of Treasury buying to the tune of a few hundred billion dollars over the course of a few months. This estimate produces a much better scenario for the dollar than estimates of asset purchases that would mirror QEI’s $1.75 Billion of purchases back in March of 2009. With the markets short the dollar, drastic moves could be in store next Wednesday when the plan is likely revealed. Full text »

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New York Session – October 26, 2010 4:09 PM

October 26, 2010

The U.S. dollar firmed on elevated inflation expectations ahead of next week’s Fed meeting and amid better than expected economic data. This morning saw the released of the S&P/Case Shiller Homer Price Index which was 148.59 for August, down slightly from the prior month’s 148.91. The composite 20 city YoY change was a disappointing +1.70% (cons. +2.10% prev. +3.18%) which was the lowest YoY change since February of this year. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for October increased to 50.2 from the prior 48.6, beating the consensus forecast of 49.9. The outlook remained somewhat disheartening as the labor component (jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get) and income expectations dropped to the lowest levels this year.   The October Richmond Fed manufacturing index surprised to the upside with a print of +5 (cons. +1, prev. -2) and the August HPI MoM also beat expectations with an advance of +0.4% (cons. -0.2%, prev. -0.7%). The greenback strengthened against the euro as EUR/USD fell to current levels around 1.3850 from session highs of around 1.3980. USD/JPY rallied above 81.50 from session lows around 80.60 as U.S. Treasury yields rose.  Full text »

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Dollar Doldrums

October 26, 2010

Tracking the dollar’s declines, with Boris Schlossberg, GFT.

U.K. Deficit Decreases, Thanks to Spending Cuts

October 26, 2010

Sterling heads higher against the U.S. dollar

The U.S. dollar is gaining against most major currencies today as confidence in global economic recovery slips a bit. However, the one major currency that is gaining against the U.S. dollar is the sterling.

U.K. Deficit Retreats

David Cameron’s government promised to cut spending and lower the deficit, and it appears that just such a scenario is under way. The U.K. deficit is being reduced, and that is providing forex traders with a currency to be confident in.

While deficits in the U.S. and euro zone grow, Britain is showing that it is possible to cut back. The move now means that the risk of a credit rating downgrade has been significantly reduced, and that Britain is likely to maintain its sterling rating.

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U.S. Dollar Gains in Currency Trading

October 26, 2010

Greenback higher against most currencies in forex trading

The U.S. dollar is gaining in currency trading on the FX market today. Indeed, the dollar is higher, thanks to a bout of risk aversion setting in amongst forex traders. Even with the troubles in the U.S., the dollar is still considered the safest, most stable currency.

Greenback is higher in forex trading against the euro, yen and Aussie. The only major currency that is rising against the dollar right now is the U.K. pound.

Indeed, good news out of Britain, concerning a reduced deficit, has forex traders eager to buy sterling. As a result, the U.K. pound is moving higher against the U.S. dollar in forex trading — which is still likely to be bogged down by increasing government debt and quantitative easing.

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London Session – October 26, 2010 6:34 AM

October 26, 2010

UK confounds expectations Full text »

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