TIC Report and my CAD position
May 15, 2006 by Trader Rich
TIC data was released at 9 this morning and it was less than
forecasted. Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were
$69.8 billion. The forecast was for 80.2B. I thought that
this would have been bearish for the dollar but the dollar took off
after the release. I scratch my head sometimes and wonder why
what I thought would happen didn't. Either way, I don't care
which direction the price goes because I was waiting for a channel
break either up or down.
The dollar did well overnight and my
long USD/CAD position was up about 70 pips during European session
trading. Ahead of the NY session and the TIC report release,
some of the dollar gains were given back this morning. I had
moved up my stop this morning to 1.1143. I entered at
1.098. The USD/CAD actually hit the .250 fibonacci at 1.1175 and
then bounced off. This is where having multiple lots would have
helped. I was watching 3 fibonacci levels:
.250 = 1.1175 .382=1.1280 .500=1.1374
If
I had entered with 3 lots, I would have placed a stop order at the .250
for the 1st lot and held on to the other 2. This is all in
hindsight but something I thought about when entering this
position. Either way, when the prices started consolidating a bit
this morning, I was stopped out at 1.1143 for a profit of 45
pips. Should I have held on to the position longer? I don't
know. I didn't want to give back all the gains if the dollar
started to get pounded again. I figure I can go long again on a
break above the
.250 fib.
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good trade, Rich! I enjoyed your video journal explaining the reasons for your trade, and I confess that I didn’t agree with your conclusions - I expected it to fall some more first - but I’m glad for you that you nailed it exactly!