Monday, May 1st

I've been watching the charts since about 4 a.m. this morning.  Specifically I've been watching the 15 minute JPY, GBP, and EUR.  The Yen had a breakdown in Asian session trading so I missed that and felt that the pair was over valued once we got to the European/US opens.

The 3 pairs started getting a little action at around 8:45 a.m. EST and were able to close right at the upper channel line.  With the E-12 holiday today, I'm a little hesitant in taking a trade with the thought that volatility may dry up.  

I'm basically channel trading today and using regression channel with a standard Close trendline in between.  I'm looking into the possibility of trading when a middle trendline is breached.  Right now I'm only trading if an upper or lower trendline is breached.  

It's 8:55 and all the pairs are trying to push furthur up with the Yen already up over a 100 pips.  I'm waiting to see if the EURO can close above its upper channel.  The GBP closed above its upper channel the previous candle and it up about 50 pips. 

It's almost 9 and I have to decide if I want to take a long EUR trade.  If I do, I'm following the rules. 

I went long at 1.2671 with a 30 pip stop at 1.2641.  I'm looking to get at least 30 pips from this trade.   

I placed a limit of 30 pips on this trade and it has been as high as +12 pips.  I've had issues in the past with closing a trade out at the first sign of a profit.  I will not do this today.  Good traders let their profits run when on the right side of the market and take their losses quick on the wrong side.

Looking at the Yen and GBP, they are leading the way here with the EURO lagging a bit.  If I would have traded both of these when they closed above the upper channel with a 30 pip limits, I would already have been in and out of these trades with a profit.  What if?   

The GBP is up big right now.  Too bad I didn't jump on this.  I have to learn not to NOT trade because of a feeling I have.  I don't know the next thing that is going to happen in the market, nobody does. 

Reasons why I didn't take a trade in the GBP.

Notice it is blank.  It was perfectly fine to take a trade in the GBP, EURO, and Yen today.  If I followed the my trading rules, I could have taken a trade in all 3.  Instead I decided to sit and wait since the EURO was lagging a bit.  Maybe it is lagging because of the E-12 holiday.  It looks like I picked the wrong pair to trade. As of 9:51, I'm down 6 pips on this trade.  It ran up as much as 15 or so pips (not enough for me to move my stop up to breakeven)

Looks like there is some profit taking going on here in all 3 pairs.  Let's see if the profit taking takes out my stop.  

Bam, I just got slapped.  I was stopped out.  30 pips.   I was stopped out by a long lower wick that hit the 30 EMA and the pair doesn't appear to be closing below my stop.  Tough luck.

Mistakes I made today:

None really.  I decided to take a trade in 1 pair and not all 3 but this is really a matter of preference.   It burns me because I'm on such a losing streak.  I cannot be disappointed though because I followed the rules.

What I would have done different:

Next time, take the trade in all 3 or realize that EURO didn't follow suit with the other 2 pairs because of the holiday (I don't know if that is the reason but it sure seems like it)

Additional thoughts:

I'm trading 15 minute charts and it is always the right thing to do to wait for the candle to close.  I did this but the candle that I traded right after was a pretty big candle because it opened right below the upper channel line.  This was is totally discretionary. 

I'm done today.  See you tomorrow. 

One other note, it is really important to set stops.  I would never have thought the EUR/USD would drop to where it is now.  After it hit my stop, I would have expected some consolidation at that level or maybe for it to continue upward.  I guess you never know. 

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