Confusion Setting In
October 23, 2006 by Trader Rich
I'm not going to lie to anyone here… the rollercoaster ride continues with me. I'm so utterly confused and really don't know what to do at this point. First I had a trading system, then I did furthur backtesting on this system and lost confidence in it due to the results. Then I didn't have a trading system. Then I decided to stick with the system. I had a trading system again. Then I decided to explore other systems and while doing so lost confidence in my initial system again. Now I'm a man without any system….
So what am I going to do to fix this? I'm still leaning toward going back to the H-system especially after missing the nice big profit it would have given me today. The results would have been good last week too if I had traded it. The only good thing I see from all of this is that the confusion has not led me to stupid losses making me realize that my discipline over the last couple of months has been good. I haven't done anything that would have jeopardized the balance of my account and I haven't impulsively entered a trade just for the sake of doing so. The disappointing thing about all of this is that just feels like square one again.
Popularity: 1%
Loading ...
Keep trading the H system, you know it works. While you are doing this forward test your other system ideas (MT4 is good for this). Systems will come and go as the market changes, sometimes this becomes overwhelming so what I find is I need a system for my systems. e.g.
1. Trade the best you currently have
2. Forward test new ideas on test accounts
3. If new system is better, replace old system
I agree with Craig.
In order for a method or strategy to work & return a positive expectancy, it must suit not only current market conditions, but more importantly, the psychological suitability of the operator?
it’s pointless possessing a market tool which captures good, lengthy trend moves if it fails to sit correctly with your personality.
sometimes the market throws up confusing & contrary signals (even to those with a durable & steadfast strategy) - & occasionally it’s the other way round
that’s life! it’s part & parcel of trading.
doesn’t necessarily mean your plan isn’t working or it’s impotent, it just means it’s not suitable for “current conditions”.
so, you miss a few home runs?! big deal…..take a break & go do something else for a week…….
often the most successful strats are based around a couple repetitive set-ups off a particular timeframe…..if they don’t appear for a week or two, then you can’t trade them….but when they next rear their ugly head - bam!
rather than go hunting for a completely new method, try tweaking what you have & maybe see if it affords you more opportunities as price reacts to other scenario’s??……..just a suggestion.
I agree with Craig’s advice to keep prospecting for new trading strategies - however, rather than replacing your old system with a new one that works better, you might consider combining them. My current trading system is a hybrid of just about every strategy I’ve come across. Ideally this approach lets you improve your trading odds and still benefit from all the work you put into earlier strategies. Just test them like crazy so you have confidence to support your discipline!
Adam, http://www.forexforays.com
Rich …
So the wooden building blocks you’ve been stacking up have toppled over and the castle you were building is now strewn all across the floor. Gotta tell you, Rich, it happens to all of us—and it won’t be the last time it happens!
I am suspicious that such setbacks happen more often to traders than to people who clock in and out at the same boring job everyday … but, then, it’s the clocking in and clocking out life that you want to avoid … right?
If that’s the case, and if you’re going to be true to yourself, then confusion and frustration is the price you pay for choosing the path you’re on. The fact is, suffering is inherent in life (per GautamaBuddha). And, the reality that your building blocks are little more than a scattered mess is just one of life’s lessons. Your job as a trader is to suck it up and keep on keepin’on! Winners never quit and quitters never win and all that …
Here’s a relevant question for you to think about … why do so many lottery winners end up broke?
Before I attempt an answer, here’s another question for you … do you think people who play the weekly lottery suffer through the same emotions you’re feeling every time they check the paper and come face-to-face with the fact that they didn’t win … again?
My sense is … they don’t. They’re certainly disappointed, but not confused, and not on the same emotional rollercoaster of highs and lows. The reason they don’t feel the same depth of emotion is because, other than the cost of the ticket, they have no investment in the game.
You, on the other hand, as is the case with all professional traders, have an investment that is a great deal more than monetary. What you and other traders have is an investment in a private, personal search that energizes you and infuses your existence with meaning. A trader can say, “I trade, therefore, I am.†Not so for lottery players. For traders, it’s a profession. The game for lottery players is simply a casual roll of the dice. The price you pay is higher and the pain of loss and ‘confusion’ is more deeply felt.
So back to the original question: why do so many lottery winners end up broke?
The answer, I think, has to do with the fact that they haven’t made the same investment that you’re making. Winning, in the trading game, has meaning that extends far beyond the amount in your trading account. Lottery winners, on the other hand, don’t have that emotional dimension and, therefore, have little respect for what they’ve won. “It’s only money,†is exactly the problem.
I’ve learned more from my failures than from my successes and I can only guess the same will be true for you. Success, all too often, has within it the seeds of failure. Better to learn what you can from your current state of confusion … and then, move on!