Forex Alerts
June 8, 2006 by Trader Rich
I'm posting Felix's alert because I like his overview of possible news trades. Here is his what he has to say about today and tomorrow's news trades.
A little review before going to the reports tomorrow. The
industrial production out of UK came out terrible, so it was a
beautiful trade. The pound went down 40 pips before recovering to
where it was before the report. It was a nice slow and steady move.
The expected number was 0.3%, and it came out -0.6%. Manufacturing
Production was also lower. Then on the E-12 interest rate statement, I
took a serious beating… :) I think I just wasn't staying on top of
all the news too well. Few things piled up which sent the EUR flying
down. First, last night during the London Open, the big Iraqi
terrorist Al Zarqawi was killed by the U.S., which was good for the
dollar, and sent the EUR flying down. Then apparently the E-12 was
talking about raising the rate by either a quarter point or half a
point. So when they raised it by only a quarter point it was in a way
the worse of the two. And then Trichet was speaking about how the high
EUR prices is affecting European businesses in a bad way, and expressed
hesitancy in future hikes, which sent the EUR flying down even more.
Now, I did what I said I'd do, and I am holding a pretty large long EUR
position, and because apparently I got the wrong times for Trichet's
speech, thanks to the mistake on forexfactory.com
(should've checked a few more sources, which at the end is obviously my
mistake), I didn't close it before the speech. So right now, I am
holding it with around -130 pips loss. The trade balances tomorrow out
of Germany, UK, and U.S. will be the decisive factors in whether I'll
be able to come out of this okay, or just reverse it. The funny thing
of it all is that none of the 3 traders that I trust very much did what
I did. Tom Yeomans from freedomforex.comkingforexsignals.com
actually shorted the pound after the rate hike, and made almost 100
pips profit. Carlos from cashmonsterz also went long on the dollar and
made a whopping 3%+ return for his managed accounts in 1 day. I was
the only loser in the bunch, with less experience than all of them, but
thought I knew better, and obviously paid the price :) Oh
well…that's life, you live and learn. Not the end of the world,
might still even be able to turn around this negative situation with
the U.S. trade balance tomorrow, and still come out OK for the week :)
We'll see… One thing for sure, is I definitely won't be trading any
more interest rate hikes, without looking at the whole picture A LOT
more carefully…and keeping my awareness at the highest… In any
case I'll keep my EUR long until tomorrow's Germany trade balance, and
we'll be playing it be ear then, going from trade balance to trade
balance, starting with Germany, then UK, then U.S. The perfect
situation for me would be good German trade balance, then good UK trade
balance, then bad U.S. one. If that doesn't happen, I'll close the
position in a heart beat, and will reverse it.
didn't trade this, because he doesn't trade interest rate hikes. Rob Grespinet from
industrial production out of UK came out terrible, so it was a
beautiful trade. The pound went down 40 pips before recovering to
where it was before the report. It was a nice slow and steady move.
The expected number was 0.3%, and it came out -0.6%. Manufacturing
Production was also lower. Then on the E-12 interest rate statement, I
took a serious beating… :) I think I just wasn't staying on top of
all the news too well. Few things piled up which sent the EUR flying
down. First, last night during the London Open, the big Iraqi
terrorist Al Zarqawi was killed by the U.S., which was good for the
dollar, and sent the EUR flying down. Then apparently the E-12 was
talking about raising the rate by either a quarter point or half a
point. So when they raised it by only a quarter point it was in a way
the worse of the two. And then Trichet was speaking about how the high
EUR prices is affecting European businesses in a bad way, and expressed
hesitancy in future hikes, which sent the EUR flying down even more.
Now, I did what I said I'd do, and I am holding a pretty large long EUR
position, and because apparently I got the wrong times for Trichet's
speech, thanks to the mistake on forexfactory.com
(should've checked a few more sources, which at the end is obviously my
mistake), I didn't close it before the speech. So right now, I am
holding it with around -130 pips loss. The trade balances tomorrow out
of Germany, UK, and U.S. will be the decisive factors in whether I'll
be able to come out of this okay, or just reverse it. The funny thing
of it all is that none of the 3 traders that I trust very much did what
I did. Tom Yeomans from freedomforex.comkingforexsignals.com
actually shorted the pound after the rate hike, and made almost 100
pips profit. Carlos from cashmonsterz also went long on the dollar and
made a whopping 3%+ return for his managed accounts in 1 day. I was
the only loser in the bunch, with less experience than all of them, but
thought I knew better, and obviously paid the price :) Oh
well…that's life, you live and learn. Not the end of the world,
might still even be able to turn around this negative situation with
the U.S. trade balance tomorrow, and still come out OK for the week :)
We'll see… One thing for sure, is I definitely won't be trading any
more interest rate hikes, without looking at the whole picture A LOT
more carefully…and keeping my awareness at the highest… In any
case I'll keep my EUR long until tomorrow's Germany trade balance, and
we'll be playing it be ear then, going from trade balance to trade
balance, starting with Germany, then UK, then U.S. The perfect
situation for me would be good German trade balance, then good UK trade
balance, then bad U.S. one. If that doesn't happen, I'll close the
position in a heart beat, and will reverse it.
didn't trade this, because he doesn't trade interest rate hikes. Rob Grespinet from
Okay, so here is what I am going to possibly trade tomorrow, Friday, June 9th, 2006
1. 6/9/06 4:30 am New York Time. We have UK Trade Balance,
coming out at -5.8 Billion. A more negative number should have a short
bias on GBP/USD, and a less negative number should have a long bias on
GBP/USD.
coming out at -5.8 Billion. A more negative number should have a short
bias on GBP/USD, and a less negative number should have a long bias on
GBP/USD.
2. 6/9/06 7:00 am New York Time. We have Canadian Employment
figures coming out. Unemployment rate is expected at 6.4% and net
change in employment is at 20K. If the unemployment rate is lower and
change in employment is higher, this should have a short bias on
USD/CAD. If it's the opposite, then it should have a long bias on
USD/CAD. If the numbers are conflicting then it's a no trade.
figures coming out. Unemployment rate is expected at 6.4% and net
change in employment is at 20K. If the unemployment rate is lower and
change in employment is higher, this should have a short bias on
USD/CAD. If it's the opposite, then it should have a long bias on
USD/CAD. If the numbers are conflicting then it's a no trade.
3. 6/9/06 8:30 am New York Time. We have US Trade Balance coming
out. Expected at -65B. Higher negative number is bad for the dollar,
so should have a long bias on EUR/USD. Lower negative number is good
for the dollar, so should have a short bias on EUR/USD.
out. Expected at -65B. Higher negative number is bad for the dollar,
so should have a long bias on EUR/USD. Lower negative number is good
for the dollar, so should have a short bias on EUR/USD.
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He has a 130 pip loss with god knows how many contracts. That doesn’t seem to be a mature trade for scalping over the news. Why would you want to trust his trade calls? I have heard that he is a very good marketer, but is he a good trader? He is only 23 or 24 yrs old. I don’t have anything against his age but Buyer Beware !!
You’re right he did have a bad day, but that happens (I appreciate that he’s honest about his trades). Overall he’s not giving signals but a synopsis of what he’s looking for in a news trade and he follows up every trade with what happened.
Overall for a free service it’s a nice tool and it doesn’t hurt to see what someone else is thinking as long as you’re still making your own decisions.
That’s all we need is another marketer. Can you trust anyone in this business except yourself?
15 February 2007
Fed Chairman is upbeat about the economy.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in his testimony to the US Congress that there were improvements in inflation and in the housing market. His assessment of the economy was upbeat, suggesting the central bank will leave interest rates at the current level in the near-term.
Bernanke said the current level of interest rates in “likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing of core inflationâ€. In his economic report, he added, “the US economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace this year and next, with growth strengthening somewhat as the drag from housing diminishes.â€
Wall Street liked the remarks and investors drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new records. The Dow Jones rose 87.01 points, or 0.69 percent, to an all-time high of 12,741.86 points at close after earlier setting a new intraday record at 12,759.40 points.
The S&P 500 index climbed 11.04 points, or 0.76 percent, to 1,455.30 points while the Nasdaq composite index jumped 28.50 points, or 1.16 percent, to 2,488.38 points.
Oil was down $1.06, or 1.8 percent, at $58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the US Energy Department reported a lower-than-expected decline in supplies of distillates. For the week ended February 9, stocks of distillates, which comprise heating oil and diesel, declined by 3.02 million barrels against an expected drop of 4 million barrels. Prices in the oil market were depressed also by the National Weather Service forecast yesterday for above normal temperatures in the US Northeast for the fourth week of February.
Brent crude oil closed down $1.35, or 2.3 percent, to $57.43 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
In currencies trading, the dollar slid to a six-week low against the euro. The greenback was at $1.3135 per euro at 11.50 a.m. in Tokyo, from $1.3130 per euro late Wednesday in New York. The US currency also bought 120.08 yen in Tokyo, from 120.79 yen in New York.