H-system backtesting
October 13, 2006 by Trader Rich
I've put together a basic backtesting script that doesn't take any fancy exits or stop loss adjustments into account but nevertheless, the results are interesting.
From January 2005 until yesterday, if I entered a 1 lot position here are the results for different limits and stop losses:
30 pip stop and 30 pip limit: 2820 pip profit
25 pip stop and 30 pip limit: 2705 pip profit
20 pip stop and 30 pip limit: 2210 pip profit
30 pip stop and 25 pip limit: 2580 pip profit
30 pip stop and 20 pip limit: 2290 pip profit
30 pip stop and 35 pip limit: 2395 pip profit
30 pip stop and 40 pip limit: 2580 pip profit
30 pip stop and 45 pip limit: 2130 pip profit
30 pip stop and 60 pip limit: 1860 pip profit
So the most profitable is the 30 pip stop and 30 pip limit but this is a 1:1 risk/reward. The least profitable is when setting the stop and limit to have a 1:2 risk/reward. The 1:2 backtest is still profitable so which one is the smartest to use? I'm not sure. Should you choose a trading system with a superior risk/reward over one without even though it has tested as less profitable? Once again, I don't know. I'll have to add some more advanced logic to the script to emulate my H-system rules.
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Wow I was just thinking about this on my way home from work today. But i didn’t have enough data to actually work it out the way you did. I always thought it was smart to place your stop 1/2 as many pips as your limit. My thinking was that you would only have to win 1 out of 3 trades to break even. But then I also thought that you are twice as likely to hit your stop than your limit. Thanks for the insight!