My #1 Recommendation

November 30, 2006 by Trader Rich 

The longer I trade, the more I'm convinced that if you concentrate on trading only one Forex currency pair, you'll be more successful.  What has convinced me of this?

I concentrate most of my time looking at GBP/USD charts because my system only trades this Forex currency pair.  I do look at other currency pair charts but not as frequently.  I'm convinced that each pair has their own personality.  If you concentrate your efforts on learning its "personality" above all others, you will feel much more comfortable with the price movement associated with this currency pair.  I visited the currency personality subject several times in the past and SFO Magazine attributed the followed characteristics to the GBP/USD:

  1. Reaction to US and UK fundamental data
  2. Price action has a one-way tendency during larger moves
  3. More proactive risk management
  4. Watch short-term false breaks of chart levels
  5. Focus on charts > 240-minutes
  6. For those positioned with a move, trailing stops with Parabolic SAR are well suited
  7. Longer-period oscillators can be used to highlight potential reversals or divergent price action
  8. Momentum signals should be confirmed by break of trendlines, Fibonacci retracements, or parabolic levels
  9. Frequently exceed 61.8 retrace, only to stall at 76.4 level.
  10. Williams %R is well suited with overbought/oversold bands adjusted to -10/-90

You can find the 2 posts where I talk about this below:

Currency Personalities Revisited

Personality Characteristics of the GBP/USD

As you get to know something or someone more, things that you never saw before will be revealed.

I'm not saying that I hold the secrets of the GBP/USD.  I think right now it's more of a comfort thing than anything else.  Over the last 3 months though, if I throw out all other trades that didn't include the GBP/USD, I would have rid myself of 200 pips of losses.  Therefore it would have been more profitable for me to just trade the GBP/USD and no other currency pairs.

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Comments

One Response to “My #1 Recommendation”

  1. Caravaggio on November 30th, 2006 7:22 pm

    I too spend almost all of my time with GBP/USD. Here are a few points on cable’s personality from a fundamental perspective:

    Unlike with say the yen, moves in the pound seem to make logical sense from a fundamental perspective. GBP/USD has a high correlation with EUR/USD (in absolute terms and in daily returns), and in pip terms, when there is no UK news on the horizon, cable can sometimes be viewed as an amplified version of ‘EUR/USD’.

    When UK news is released, the impact on GBP/USD nearly always makes ’sense’ : short-term interest differentials are vital to sterling. This at least gives the feeling that I am not just trading a randomly generated line, although that may well be the case.

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