My 2 Live Trades Last Week Lost
April 15, 2007 by Trader Rich
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BX_hgW76Obs]
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4 Responses to “My 2 Live Trades Last Week Lost”
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Why don’t you try longer term swing trading? the risk/reward most be better than trading against the trend on the GBP/USD!
Any market, be it real estate market or forex market, is all about transferring money from the masses to a few lucky ones in the long run. In most real property speculation cases, the masses make money ,a lot of money, but the money stays as paper profit and evaporate before they realize their paper profit into real hard cash. In most forex speculation cases, the masses barely survive a few years thanks to lack of knowledge of the market and the deadly leverage. But both types of speculators all serve their useful purposes in investment food chain contributing their hard earned money to the market in exchange for a dream.
For any prospective traders, hope this is not in anyway a discouragement. Trading is a hard mind game and not everyone is suitable to be engaged in such a hard game. Most have neither frame of mind nor mental fortitude to survive in this hard game. Mastering TAs or numbers or options business are at best a first tentative step into the right direction with no guarantee to any success. Training a right frame of mind is the most difficult but absolutely necessary part for success and most are simply not ready to go through that hard stage of the learning process because it is a very painful process. Trading is essentially about pain-taking-process in the end although most do not realize it. The process of overcoming fear, greed and mastering tranquility of mind in this hard school of speculation. Fwiw.
Every trader should find his/her method/system which suits his/her own situation and personality. And that system/method must be the one that has proven to be able to make some money through trials. So, if Tom, the medium-term trader, revealed his money making method of last three decades, it may not have the same effect for Dick and Harry, the day traders, and vice versa. Agree that most fail for lack of system/method and/or lack of discipline to follow through.
Trading success is all about making as much as one can when one is right and losing as little as possible when one is wrong. That is the essence of this business. So, any theory or system which looks after the above is a good one.
System is a weapon of a soldier in this market. You must have one as soon as possible. Otherwise, it will be like fighting well-armed Forex robbers with a handbag. Best one is a self-made one because you can never feel comfy in borrowed shoes although borrowing good ideas from others is a good idea. Good luck.
One cannot make a dime unless follow the herd or trend most of the time. It is just that one has to be cautious when overbought/oversold region is approaching and know how to turn at inflection point for the opposite trend. Following herd needs average intelligence and courage but identifying inflection points and taking a necessary action needs not only intelligence but also a lot of courage. Again, fortune favors the brave.
Money management is where most traders go wrong in almost all cases leaving only a few as the winner at the end of the day. Money management and discipline of mind is what makes or brakes a trader at the end of the day, not the elementary entry and exit method.
Forex/Currency Trading: It is a sentiment game w/ a crowd mentality where even the best players w/ the best forecasts are tricked out of good positions by the magic of price action.
Why day trade once you get a good seat and the market is going your way. It is always more profitable to ride even the short wave for 2-10 days by adding up. In general, you must day trade only when you are losing. To find a buy entry seat for short-term trades, you can study the “accumulation and distribution patterns and 20 MA” in 8, 4 hourlies or 30 min “Line Charts” (or Candle Charts), together with MACD “overbought and oversold indicators” with its Patterns. If you study them for awhile you will understand when it the best entry point. The remainder is for money management and discipline and of course, experience. Good trades�
On technical side of the trading, the first thing to do is to find out the trend in one�s trading time frame and the proper trading strategy for that trend. Some ride positions for months, while some ride positions for less than an hour or a day and their views of the trend obviously differ. For a trader who is running a position for months, a daily fluctuation may be just a meaningless noise while for a daytrader or an hour trader, a daily fluctuation could be a monstrous tsunami. Having a precise definition and a technique of identifying a trend and the turn of a trend in a trader�s time frame, and adopting the right strategies for that trend is the first elementary step in a hard school of trading. Imho.
I keep my technical side on any pair as simple as possible largely relying on other�s moves to see how I can take advantage of the situation. So for me the strategy is to “range trade”. Please always give stop order per your risk profile when you open any new position. Medium-term reversals can be confirmed only in monthly, weekly and daily charts. Chart reading is not to predict the tops or bottoms of any move, but to confirm the change of trend as soon as they are made and adopt right strategies in that new trend. Good trades.
Each cycle is different from the last one and that is the beauty of the market. It is extremely important to look at the big picture from the distance rather than studying the minute and hourly charts with a microscope. And repeat the whole show again and again �til it shows the sign of turning in daily or weekly chart. And flip. Good trades to you.
I use very primitive charting methods. Please read 8 hour charts of EUR/GBP with 20 and 40 MA, and read round figures and breakout (from consolidations, then you will realize the method cannot be more primitive than that, but still deadly effective). Buy on dips towards the support and add up on breakout of that consolidation treating the two as one trade with same stop loss and “keep them” as long as the market moves in your way. Good trades.
As a rule of thumb, 20 MAs in 8 hour, day, week and month are useful for its directional tendency and as a resistance and support point. Not sure how much it is useful in daytrading though.
Please have a look at Eur/Usd and Usd/Jpy weekly 10 RSI and Aud/Usd monthly 10 RSI “patterns”, not levels. Then you will find out primitive things work better when coupled with even simpler MAs. And RSI is useful “only in these weekly and monthly time scale” as far as I can see. You can ignore RSI in short-term scales as the inventor of RSI, Wilder, told us long ago.
just do safe trading in GBP/USD. I lost only three times since oct 2006