Top Market Moving Indicators

Like many Mondays, tomorrow probably won't be moved by the very latest economic release because there really aren't with 1 exception. At 9 a.m. tomorrow, the TIC report is released.  This report measures demand for US assets and could be yet another nail in the dollar but I'll be watching just to see if this is a report that would move the market in the future.  See Kathy Lien's study that puts TIC report at market mover #9 for first 20 minutes after release and #3 for the entire day.

I'm going to be releasing my Economic Release PDF again this week with comments.  It looks like Wednesday (US CPI) and Thursday (Bernanke Speaks) are possible US session movers and there are a couple of other important non-US releases like the BOJ Interest Rate Statement on Friday (1 am EST.)

In much of my reading, I stumble upon useful bits of information.  There was a study by Kathy Lien, an FXCM strategist, of the top market-moving economic indicators for the Dollar during the first 20 minutes following a release and for the rest of the day.  These are ranked from highest average pip range and are only for the EUR/USD.  Considering other pairs like the GBP/USD react more to these economic releases, the average pip range would be much higher.

First 20 minutes

1. Unemployment (nonfarm payrolls) 124 p
2. Interest rates(FOMC) 74 p
3. Trade balance 64 p
4. CPI 44 p
5. Retail sales 43 p
6. GDP 43 p
7. Current account 43 p
8. Durable Goods 39 p
9. TIC data 33 p

Daily

1. Unemployment 193 p
2. Interest rates (FOMC) 140 p
3. TIC data 132 p
4. Trade balance 129 p
5. Current account 127 p
6. Durable goods 126 p
7. Retail sales 125 p
8. CPI 123 p
9. GDP 110 p

It is interesting to note how the importance of economic reports actually changes over time.  For instance, here is FX Dealer importance of Economic Data as of 1997 and as of 1992.

As of 1997 

1. Unemployment
2. Interest rates
3. Inflation
4. Trade balance
5. GDP          

As of 1992

1. Trade balance
2. Interest rates
3. Unemployment
4. Inflation
5. GDP 

Popularity: 3%