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Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the euro and
yen as a report showing stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer
confidence reinforced speculation the Federal Reserve will keep
raising interest rates.
The U.S. currency advanced even as the Commerce Department
said the trade deficit widened to a record in September.
The
dollar has climbed about 13 percent against the euro and the yen
this year as the Fed lifted its benchmark rate seven times while
the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan kept rates on hold.
``The market is viewing this as an opportunity'' to buy
dollars, said Todd Elmer, a currency strategist in New York at
Citigroup Inc., the world's biggest bank. ``The interest-rate
spread is widening in favor of the U.S. dollar.''
Against the euro, the dollar strengthened for a sixth
straight day to $1.1729 from $1.1765 yesterday as of 1:15 p.m.
in New York, according to electronic foreign-exchange dealing
system EBS. It weakened to $1.1798 immediately after the trade
report was released. The dollar climbed to 118.06 yen, from
117.52, approaching its highest level since August 2003.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment
rose to 79.9 this month from 74.2 in October, a 13-year low. The
reading was expected to be 76.5, according to a median forecast
of 56 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The trade deficit, the amount by which imports exceed
exports, expanded to $66.1 billion in September from a revised
$59.3 billion the month before. Economists expected a shortfall
of $61.5 billion, based on the median of 66 estimates in a
Bloomberg survey. Deficit estimates ranged from $58 billion to
$65.5 billion.
`Appetite' for Dollars
``Under normal circumstances with this kind of figure, you
would expect to see significant dollar weakening,'' said Jens
Nordvig, a global markets economist in New York at Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. ``The fact that you're not seeing that seems to
indicate that people have quite a bit of appetite to take on
long dollar positions.''
Goldman Sachs, the world's third-largest securities firm,
forecasts the dollar will drop to $1.30 against the single
currency in 12 months, in part because of the widening trade
deficit. Deutsche Bank AG, the biggest currency trader, predicts
the dollar will drop to $1.25 per euro by March, as does
Citigroup.
Some traders also sold the yen after Hiroshi Watanabe,
Japan's top currency official, told reporters in Tokyo today
that the current exchange value of Japan's currency isn't too
weak and the Ministry of Finance is watching to see if it
reflects fundamentals,.
``We don't see the current level of the yen, about 117 to
the dollar, as particularly weak,'' Watanabe said. ``It's not at
a level that requires us to take action.''
Trade Deficit
A wider U.S. trade gap means more dollars need to be
converted to other currencies to pay for imports and may raise
concern about the current account, the broadest measure of
trade. The U.S. currency fell for three years through December
amid record trade and fiscal deficits combined with the lowest
interest rates in four decades.
``If interest rates continue to rise, inflows of foreign
investment should continue to stay positive,'' which offsets the
trade deficit and helps the dollar, said Matthew Lifson, chief
currency trader at PNC Capital Markets in Pittsburgh.
`Every Six Weeks'
St. Louis Fed President William Poole yesterday signaled
the U.S. central bank will keep raising rates. Inflation risks
are still ``skewed toward the high side,'' Poole told reporters
following a speech yesterday at Lindenwood University in St.
Charles, Missouri.
``The interest-rate story is why the dollar has been so
strong in the last couple months,'' said Brian Rose, a currency
strategist in New York at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. ``Investors
want to buy the dollar because the interest rate goes up every
six weeks.''
The Fed on Nov. 1 raised its target for overnight loans
between banks by a quarter-percentage point to 4 percent, its
12th increase since June 2004.
The U.S. central bank will lift the rate beyond the first
quarter next year, to a peak of 4.75 percent by June, according
to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists, published
yesterday. The forecast is a quarter-percentage point more than
projected last month.
The extra yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes over
similar-maturity German debt was 1.09 percentage points. The gap
has averaged 0.46 percentage point over the past two years. Ten-
year Treasuries yield 3.07 percentage points more than
equivalent Japanese bonds.
`Strong Vigilance'
The euro weakened even as a government report today showed
that France's economy expanded 0.7 percent in the three months
through September from the previous quarter, the fastest pace in
more than a year.
ECB Chief Economist Otmar Issing said yesterday the bank
could act ``at any time,'' and a rate increase wouldn't hurt
growth in the euro region. Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet
said Nov. 7 that ``interest rates can move any time.''
The ECB said in its monthly bulletin that ``strong
vigilance'' is needed as higher energy costs and an economic
revival increase the risk of faster inflation. The bank has kept
its main rate on hold at 2 percent for more than two years.
The argument for the ECB raising rates is ``pretty weak''
because of the challenges facing Europe, said Jim O'Neill, chief
economist at Goldman Sachs in London. O'Neill also said yen
weakness is ``one of the big mysteries of the year.'' He
predicted that in 12 months the yen may rise to near 100 per
dollar and to ``its old historical highs of 80'' in a few years.
The dollar's gains today came as concern eased that demand
from overseas investors, who own about half of all U.S.
government debt, is declining.
Indirect bidders, the class of investors that includes
foreign central banks, bought 55.6 percent of the $13 billion in
10-year Treasury notes sold by the government today, up from
22.1 percent in September. Yesterday, indirect bidders bought
21.1 percent of the $13 billion in five-year Treasury notes sold
-- less than half the 45.8 percent last month.
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