Bearish Flag Pattern or Not?
by Trader Rich
The question is: Was the chart pattern below a bearish flag pattern?
Though I stated during the week that I thought it was getting a little long for a flag pattern, I was under the impression it was.
Well I was right about the "getting a little long" part and what I'm about to tell you explains a possible reason (1 of many) why the price didn't continue downward after the big move down in April.
According to Bulkowski, here is the modus operandi of the flag pattern.
- Price action is bounded by 2 parallel lines. The price will go against the prevailing trend. In the above chart, the trend was down and the flag pattern is in an upward direction. This is a flag pattern!
- Flag patterns form after a steep, quick price trend. In this case, the flag pattern did form after a steep downward price trend. This is a flag pattern!
- Three-week maximum. Bulkowski states that "flags are short, from a few days to 3 weeks." The above chart met the criteria until the beginning of June when the pattern continued after 3 weeks. It's actually pretty amazing how the price made it down to the bottom trend line at exactly 3 weeks but failed to penetrate essentially negating this chart formation as a flag pattern. This ISN'T a flag pattern anymore!
All along I thought this was a pretty nice bearish flag formation but it's a good thing that I now know differently.
Bulkowski has a very good reason for why the price broke through the upper trend line today. He states, "sometimes an excessively long formation suggests an impending failure or a weak price move after the breakout." The above chart shows an excessively long flag formation and also the impending failure to break down.
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This is the sort of crap that would drive me wild with Pitchforks. It’s easy to draw lines after somthing has happened.
Isn’t a flag formed from a steeper decline, almost like an actual pole? It would look different in another time frame too. What do you think? I would say that number 2 is false since the decline doesnt much resemble a flag pole.
Damn, don’t know what happened to this pic. The link to the larger pic doesn’t work. Have to look into this.