Bearish Flag Pattern or Not?

The question is: Was the chart pattern below a bearish flag pattern?

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Though I stated during the week that I thought it was getting a little long for a flag pattern, I was under the impression it was. 

Well I was right about the "getting a little long" part and what I'm about to tell you explains a possible reason (1 of many) why the price didn't continue downward after the big move down in April.

According to Bulkowski, here is the modus operandi of the flag pattern.

  1. Price action is bounded by 2 parallel lines.  The price will go against the prevailing trend. In the above chart, the trend was down and the flag pattern is in an upward direction.   This is a flag pattern!
  2. Flag patterns form after a steep, quick price trend.  In this case, the flag pattern did form after a steep downward price trend.  This is a flag pattern!
  3. Three-week maximum.  Bulkowski states that "flags are short, from a few days to 3 weeks."  The above chart met the criteria until the beginning of June when the pattern continued after 3 weeks.  It's actually pretty amazing how the price made it down to the bottom trend line at exactly 3 weeks but failed to penetrate essentially negating this chart formation as a flag pattern.  This ISN'T a flag pattern anymore!

All along I thought this was a pretty nice bearish flag formation but it's a good thing that I now know differently. 

Bulkowski has a very good reason for why the price broke through the upper trend line today.  He states, "sometimes an excessively long formation suggests an impending failure or a weak price move after the breakout."  The above chart shows an excessively long flag formation and also the impending failure to break down. 

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Comments

3 Responses to “Bearish Flag Pattern or Not?”

  1. Craig on November 20th, 2006 10:55 pm

    This is the sort of crap that would drive me wild with Pitchforks. It’s easy to draw lines after somthing has happened.

  2. Another Brian on January 16th, 2008 5:32 pm

    Isn’t a flag formed from a steeper decline, almost like an actual pole? It would look different in another time frame too. What do you think? I would say that number 2 is false since the decline doesnt much resemble a flag pole.

  3. Rich on January 16th, 2008 8:18 pm

    Damn, don’t know what happened to this pic. The link to the larger pic doesn’t work. Have to look into this.

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