Buy the Rumor, Sell The News购买的传闻,卖新闻

August 24, 2006 by 2006年8月24号的 Trader Rich交易商富

WHY DID WE SEE THE EURO/STERLING/YEN decline against the USD?我们为什么欧元/英镑/日元下跌对美元?

Here were the consensus figures and actual figures of the economic news reports this morning:这里是一致的数字和实际数字的经济新闻报道今天上午:

Durable Orders 耐用品订单

Consensus : -.8% Actual : -2.4% 共识: -. 8 % , 实际 : -2.4 %

Initial Claims 首次申请

Consensus : 315K Actual : 313K 共识: 315K 实际 : 313K

New Home Sales 新屋销售

Consensus : 1105K Actual : 1072K 共识: 1105K 实际 : 1072K

Looks bad for the USD, right?很糟糕的美元,对不对? Wrong.错误的。

Here are some reasons stated by members of the Oanda forums:这里有一些原因的成员Oanda论坛:

  1. The bad numbers were expected therefore it was already priced into the market糟糕的数字,预计因此,它的价格已经进入市场
  2. Fear恐怖
  3. Big longs have to take a profit and doing so during the news is a great time due to increased volatility大多头必须考虑利润,并在这样做的新闻是一个伟大的时间由于不稳定性增加
  4. No reason没有理由
  5. The "big guys" don't trade on impulse.  They need more complicated approvals, conference calls, board meetings, red tape, etc. “大家伙”不贸易的冲动。他们需要更复杂的审批,电话会议,董事会会议,繁文缛节等
  6. It's August.  Expect the unexpected.  Wild moves in the summer that just don't make sense are commonplace for this time of the year这是8月。期待的意外。野生举动在夏季,仅仅是没有意义司空见惯的每年的这个时候

Other points:其他要点:

  • A lower EUR/USD is needed to play the news tomorrow and now we have it.较低的欧元/美元是需要发挥新闻明天我们现在已经它。
  • The prior day gives a pretty good indicator of the rumor前一天给出了相当不错的指标谣言

So I don't know what is true or not but the simple fact that there ARE so many reasons for something that is expected not happening really puts the markets in perspective.因此,我不知道什么是真正的或没有,但一个简单的事实,有很多原因的东西,预计不会发生真正把市场的观点。

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