Buy the Rumor, Sell The News购买的传闻,卖新闻
August 24, 2006 by 2006年8月24号的 Trader Rich交易商富
WHY DID WE SEE THE EURO/STERLING/YEN decline against the USD?我们为什么欧元/英镑/日元下跌对美元?
Here were the consensus figures and actual figures of the economic news reports this morning:这里是一致的数字和实际数字的经济新闻报道今天上午:
Durable Orders 耐用品订单
Consensus : -.8% Actual : -2.4% 共识: -. 8 % , 实际 : -2.4 %
Initial Claims 首次申请
Consensus : 315K Actual : 313K 共识: 315K 实际 : 313K
New Home Sales 新屋销售
Consensus : 1105K Actual : 1072K 共识: 1105K 实际 : 1072K
Looks bad for the USD, right?很糟糕的美元,对不对? Wrong.错误的。
Here are some reasons stated by members of the Oanda forums:这里有一些原因的成员Oanda论坛:
- The bad numbers were expected therefore it was already priced into the market糟糕的数字,预计因此,它的价格已经进入市场
- Fear恐怖
- Big longs have to take a profit and doing so during the news is a great time due to increased volatility大多头必须考虑利润,并在这样做的新闻是一个伟大的时间由于不稳定性增加
- No reason没有理由
- The "big guys" don't trade on impulse. They need more complicated approvals, conference calls, board meetings, red tape, etc. “大家伙”不贸易的冲动。他们需要更复杂的审批,电话会议,董事会会议,繁文缛节等
- It's August. Expect the unexpected. Wild moves in the summer that just don't make sense are commonplace for this time of the year这是8月。期待的意外。野生举动在夏季,仅仅是没有意义司空见惯的每年的这个时候
Other points:其他要点:
- A lower EUR/USD is needed to play the news tomorrow and now we have it.较低的欧元/美元是需要发挥新闻明天我们现在已经它。
- The prior day gives a pretty good indicator of the rumor前一天给出了相当不错的指标谣言
So I don't know what is true or not but the simple fact that there ARE so many reasons for something that is expected not happening really puts the markets in perspective.因此,我不知道什么是真正的或没有,但一个简单的事实,有很多原因的东西,预计不会发生真正把市场的观点。
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