New York Session – February 14, 2012 4:09 PM

The USD outperformed as risk sentiment retreated on disappointing progress out of Athens and weaker than expected growth in U.S. retail sales. EU finance ministers were set to meet tomorrow but the meeting was cancelled and will be replaced with a conference call as Juncker said that Greece and the Troika needs to carry out further technical work. Reports have indicated that Greece has not yet provided the required political assurances to implement austerity measures as opposition leader Samaras has refused to sign the commitment. The pressure is on Greece to meet the demands of the EU to obtain necessary funding as German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that Europe is better prepared for a Greek default. The euro is weaker as the clock ticks for Greece with EUR/USD briefly dipping below the 1.31 figure to session lows of around 1.3080. The pair is back above the 21-day SMA and currently trading around 1.3110. Full text »

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Asia Session – February 14, 2012 1:20 AM

Investor
sentiment took a hit early in the session after Moody’s adjusted its ratings of
9 European sovereigns. Whilst we suspect these ratings adjustments didn’t come
as a surprise to the market they added to negative sentiment stemming from
Greece, creating a toxic mix for risk assets in Asia.

Full text »

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New York Session – February 13, 2012 4:05 PM

Sentiment is modestly higher and the buck was mostly softer against the major currencies on hopes for a Greek debt deal. The buck is weakest against the high beta currencies NZD and AUD and is relatively flat against the EUR, JPY, CHF and SEK. Markets are cautiously optimistic after Greek parliament approved austerity measures required as the nation seeks to secure a €130B bailout. Several hurdles remain including implementation risks as well as ongoing PSI negotiations. Furthermore, a Greek cabinet reshuffle is expected after Greek ministers resigned in protest. In addition to protests within the government, the Greek public took to the streets setting buildings on fire in Athens as unrest builds while the government struggles to obtain additional aid. The euro traded with a softer tone, declining against the USD throughout NY trading with EUR/USD dipping below the 1.32 figure after S&P downgraded 15 Spanish banks. Full text »

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Лондонская Сессия – February 13, 2012 9:59 AM

Когда
протестанты вышли на улицы Афин, законодатели одобрили меры саморегулирования
необходимые для получения 130 млрд. евро по программе поддержки, которые явКогда
протестанты вышли на улицы Афин, законодатели одобрили меры саморегулирования
необходимые для получения 130 млрд. евро по программе поддержки, которые
являются единственной преградой между Грецией и дефолтом.

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Asia Session – February 10, 2012 1:47 AM

The RBA cut
its growth and inflation forecasts for 2012 as uncertainty surrounding economic
conditions offshore flow into the domestic economy. On Tuesday, the bank
decided to keep interest rates at 4.25%, surprising a market that was looking
for a 0.25% cut, however this recent report is more dovish than expected which
means economists might get there cut next month.

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New York Session – February 9, 2012 4:18 PM

Sentiment was moderately higher after Greek leaders agreed on an austerity package ahead of a meeting between EU finance ministers. The dollar is mostly weaker against the majors with the exception of the JPY, AUD, and NZD as stocks and Treasury yields advance. Key central banks made policy announcements this morning with the Bank of England maintain rates at 0.50% and expanding its asset purchase target by 50B£ to 325B£ as expected while the European Central Bank kept rates on hold at 1.00% as expected. Full text »

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Asia Session – February 9, 2012 1:45 AM

Mid-way
through the session Chinese CPI data printed much higher than expected, leading
to concerns that Beijing won’t move to loosen policy. The official CPI print
was +4.5%y/y, with food prices leading the drive with a 10.5%y/y gain. At the
same time, data showed that producer prices increased 0.7%y/y, which represents
a deceleration from December figure of 1.7%.

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New York Session – February 8, 2012 4:13 PM

The buck traded slightly firmer today but remains vulnerable to event risk ahead of key central bank meetings tomorrow and as details emerge regarding a Greek debt and austerity deal. The USD is also showing technical signs of weakness as the Dollar Index trades below the 100-day sma. It was a relatively quiet day in the FX markets as prices consolidated ahead of tomorrow’s BoE and ECB meetings. There was little economic data released out of North America with the only data of note being weekly U.S. MBA mortgage applications which rose 7.5% (prior -2.9%) and Canada’s January housing starts which declined slightly to 197.9k from the prior 199.9k. The Loonie is weaker with USD/CAD retesting the 200-day SMA as resistance. Full text »

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Asia Session – February 8, 2012 1:19 AM

It was a fairly quiet day on the FX front, but a slew of
earnings announcements kept equity investors on their toes. Before the open,
BHP surprised the market by announcing a drop in first-half profits of 5.5%,
causing the stock to slide around 0.6%. In Japan, Toyota shares were lifted
after the company upgraded its fiscal-year earnings outlook.

Full text »

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New York Session – February 7, 2012 4:17 PM

The buck reversed earlier gains after Bernanke downplayed recent labor data and the euro rose amid hopes that Greek debt and austerity negotiations are in the final stages. With no top tier economic data released out of the U.S., it was headlines once again that drove price action. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the Senate Budget Committee and cautioned that the current unemployment rate “no doubt understates the weakness of the labor market”, noting the reduction in the labor force due to those that are discouraged. The dovish comments boosted market sentiment as it was interpreted that further accommodation is still under consideration (See more in our Fundamental Update: The Beveridge Curve and Bernanke’s comments). The prospect of QE3 put pressure on the US dollar with the greenback declining against all of the G10 currencies except for the yen. Full text »

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