Yen Swing Trade Analysis

TRADE

Date: Friday, February 24th

Entry: Short USD/JPY at 117.05

Reason for trade/setup: With a downward trend in motion, I was looking for a swing trade to short the USD/JPY.  I was waiting for price to retrace back up where a minor Asian session breakdown occurred several hours prior at 117.10.  The DMI indicator was used as confirmation that the existing trend was still in place.

Initial Stop:  117.19; the high of previous bar

Initial Target:  116.40

RESULT 

Exit: 116.76

Reason for Exit:  End of day

Profit/loss:  +29 pips/ +$745.10 (3 lots)

Trade executed according to plan? yes

Outcome: This trade entry went exactly according to plan so much so that it surprised me.  The price didn’t reach my limit and that didn’t surprise me. 

Thoughts:  The market doesn’t generate trades like this everyday and this setup would only apply to trending markets.

Forex swing trade 

 

 

 

 

My performance per Currency Pair

I decided to take a look at all of my trades since day one and find out which currency pair has been most profitable for me.  The results were interesting:

USD/JPY: +3720
EUR/JPY: +2400
GBP/JPY: +1370
USD/CAD: +890
NZD/USD: +470
USD/CHF: +420

EUR/GBP: -70
AUD/USD: -130
GBP/USD: -$410
CHF/JPY: -650
EUR/USD:
-$1430

History says to stay away from the EUR/USD pair.  I had a feeling that the USD/JPY was my best friend.

USD/JPY 2006-02-21

UPDATE!!!  The pair has dropped another 70 pips since I exited.  That is why I am far from reaching my goal.

TRADE

Date: Tuesday, February 21st

Entry: Short USD/JPY at 118.78.

Reason for trade/setup: This trade was mostly based on the fact that resistance was up above at 119.00.  Furthur confirmation was obtained from the crossover of the Stochastic (9(3),3) from overbought territory. 

Initial Stop:  119.06, which was 6 pips above the high of the entry day.

Initial Target:  118.00 which is the top of the Ichimoku Kumo or cloud.

RESULT 

Exit: 118.35

Reason for Exit:  Profit taking.  I needed to get back on track this week.  I couldn’t leave $1000 on the table

Profit/loss:  43 pips / $1070

Trade executed according to plan? no; early exit

Outcome: After trade entry, the pair played with the 119.00 resistance level for the entire U.S. trading session before finally finding more sellers than buyers at the Asian open.  The pair then stalled at 118.40 during lunchtime in Japan on Tuesday evening.  The pair retraced almost back to the 119.00 mark on Wednesday during the European session before heading back down.  There is solid resistance at 119.00.  I exited the trade before my target.  The main reason was for my need to get back some of my losses from the week.  I didn’t want to leave $1000 on the table.

Yen Dollar Trade 

 

 

USD/CHF 2006-02-21

TRADE

Date: Tuesday, February 21st

Entry: Short USD/CHF at 1.3082

Reason for trade/setup: Using the 240-minute chart, there was the presence of a downward trend line above.  In addition, a momentum indicator that I created and am currently testing indicated a short opportunity.  Furthur confirmation was obtained from the 3-period, 5-period Price oscillator using EMA and the continued downward movement of the 8-period, 21-period Price oscillator.  Stochastic crossover and a decreasing rate of change since early February provided double-secret confirmation.

Initial Stop:  1.3121, the high of the entry day.

Initial Target:  1.3050 then 1.2950 which are horizontal support lines.

RESULT 

Exit: 1.3121

Reason for Exit:  Stop Loss triggered

Profit/loss:  -38 pips

Trade executed according to plan? yes

Outcome: After trade entry, the pair had remained close with the downward trend line.  Volatility was non-existent during Asian session.  The USD was bullish going into the European session and the pair went as high as 1.3153 stopping me out of the position between 3 am and 7 am.  This trade never moved in my favor by more than a couple of pips.

Thoughts:  All the indicators in the world can’t predict the future.  I seemed to have multiple confirmation, felt great about the trade, yet it didn’t turn out well.  I feel good about executing the trade though because I didn’t go against my plan.  I saw a possible setup and pulled the trigger.  If I could do it all over again I would make the trade again but may have waited for an increase in volatility.  In addition, I probably set my profit targets too high considering the lack of price action this week.