Negative Expectancy

I'm now carrying a negative expectancy of -0.05 which I think means that for every dollar I risk, I'll lose 5 cents.  If this isn't correct, let me know.  I do feel like I overtraded last week and was a bit too persistent on a couple of trades at the end of last week.  Either way, I don't feel too bad about my trading as I still try to get back into sync with the forex market.  I had a good trade going early this week when I rode the GBP/USD long over 130 pips.  I took a little profit out and let the rest continue.  I set the stop to breakeven and it was hit during the European session this morning.  I did get some profit but unfortunately didn't realize anything else on the rest of the position.  Breakeven stops are a bit frustrating when their hit but if I didn't set it, I'd probably would have been stopped out at about -100 pips.  In hindsight, it may have been wiser to take a profit earlier with the expectation of some range bound activity.

Markets Recap:

  • DOW down -76.08 to 13231.01 (-0.57%)
  • GOLD up 1.10 to 815.8 (+0.14)
  • OIL down -0.10 to 93.99 (-0.11%)
  • US Dollar index closes up at 75.814

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Comments

One Response to “Negative Expectancy”

  1. John Forman on November 15th, 2007 11:07 am

    If you’ve calculated your expectency in terms of dollars, and have your figures all normalized to account for difference in trades sizes (if any) then you are correct in your interpretation. If you just averaged your points made/lost, you might wrong.

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