Possible EUR/CHF Setup
January 10, 2007 by Trader Rich
I want to give everyone a little taste of the alerts I get from Lien/Schlossberg. I've never used a signal service before and many of you may have not either. It's quite evident here that they use a mixture of fundamental and technical analysis in their trading. Also, from my own observations, the GBP/USD has been abnormally calm over the last two days. I'm watching closely and looking for a big move soon. In addition to a trade signal to go short on the USD/CAD, here is a setup they are watching:
A setup that
we are watching is EUR/CHF - a pair that
has been bid to stratospheric highs on carry trade flows. Most traders have bet that the ECB will be
raising rates at a faster pace than the SNB creating an ever widening interest
rate differential between the two. However, there may be signs that the
typically conservative SNB does not want to see the Swiss franc so weak against
the Euro, for fear of creating inflation to Switzerland. Yesterday several
analysts predicted that the SNB will become more aggressive and may raise rates
twice rather than once in the 1st half of 2007 in order to stabilize
the relationship between the Euro and the Swissie. Meanwhile, tomorrow we have the ECB press
conference. Almost everyone in the
market expects President Trichet to obliquely confirm that a rate hike is
coming in February. However, if he hems and haws and hesitates, the Euro may
suffer as a result and EUR/CHF in turn may finally take a tumble from its lofty
heights.
Technically,
if 1.6110 gives, there is no major support until 1.6050 in EUR/CHF.
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