Rob Booker Analysis Today

This information is already stale but good for those of you who want exposure to Rob Booker’s style. 

GBP/USD 1 Hour Chart 

Friday, the pair broke below the redline, and created a really nice short trade.  Here’s what I would consider now: a short trade on a break below the low of Friday, with a target of EITHER of the blue lines shown below.  The lowest blue line is the more aggressive target.  One way to handle this is to initiate the position immediately on a break below Friday’s low, then move the stop loss to break even when the pair hits the FIRST blue line below.  Then use the lowest blue line as the profit target.

 

 

 

Popularity: 3%

Don’t Move Your Stops

Here is a quick lesson from Sam Shenker about moving stops which I’m sure we have all been guilty of.

As a trader one of the lessons I learned the hard way is to never move my stops against the position. One of the most common mistakes made by the novice traders is to move the stop against the position once the trade start going against him or her. As the trade keeps going against the trader and once again approaches the stop, what do most of traders do, they move the stop again, thus increasing an unrealized loss, but unrealized loss is still a loss and a real one at that. In order to become successful, a trader must learn that the initial stop most of the time is a correct stop, because if the stop is triggered it usually means that the trader is on the wrong side of the market and by moving the stop he or she only increases the loss. The reason why traders move stops is hope that the market turns around and goes in the direction of the trade, but hope has no place in the market, protective stops do. Remember:  NEVER MOVE THE STOP AGAINST THE POSITION, BECAUSE BY MOVING STOPS AGAINST YOUR POSITION YOU ONLY INCREASE THE SIZE OF YOUR LOSS.

Popularity: 4%

Dollar Strength and EUR/USD Channel

I’ve been trading the EUR/USD since yesterday evening and caught the breakdown below 1.1855.  The USD has not been able to push below 1.1827 though and until then the price may remain in a 60 pip channel.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m up a little more than $400 to start the week in realized gains but as of now am only in a short EUR/USD position that I entered on a pullback last night.   There haven’t been any major developments since the Asian trading session set most currency pairs in motion except for the USD/CAD which has broken down nearly 75 pips from yesterday evening.  I was actually long on a USD/CAD position yesterday and decided to get out after hearing that some favorable economic reports were expected from Canada this morning.  This demonstrates some good behavior on my part with an exit of the position with a $100 loss.  I didn’t see the pair doing what I would have expected from my technical analysis and wasn’t aware of the economic reports coming out of Canada when I entered the position.  What good would it have been to stay in the position?

Popularity: 3%

Candlestick Studies for Next Week

I’m attaching a graphic of 8 currency pairs and their corresponding weekly candlestick patterns provided by Metastock software.  Going into next week, we see:

EUR/USD: Engulfing Bear
AUD/USD: Doji Star
EUR/JPY:  Engulfing Bear

 

 

 

 

Popularity: 4%

Playing the Odds with a Bearish Engulfing

The graphic below is the weekly EUR/USD chart with corresponding candlestick patterns.  As you can see, going into next weeks trading, we are following an engulfing bear.  Care to play the odds that this week will see more bearish action? Since 1999, here are the pip profit/loss if going short for the week following an engulfing bear:

 +51, +266, +21, +124, -58, +132, +38, +8, +11, +46, -10, +136

Out of 12 weeks, only 2 of the weeks were losing and they were small losses of 58 pips and 10 pips.  The average profit was 83.3 pips over the other 10 weeks. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We could very well see another bearish week if we played the odds.  I know I will be.

Popularity: 4%

A Forex Trader Speaks His Mind

I’m posting an email I received from a fellow participant of Raghee Horner’s webinars today.  He has been utilizing Raghee’s methods for the last year and goes into the successes and failures he has had with them.  Keep in mind that he is a beaten down trader who started out with $30,000 and now has $3000 left.  I don’t necessarily agree with everything he says.  I don’t think because 1 person is unsuccessful at something that no one else has a shot.  One of his final sentences is "Do not think you’re going to realize your dreams by day trading."  I don’t believe this and won’t believe this.  I feel like his story will be beneficial:

I would say her setups happen quite a bit if you scan all the pairs. I am not good at position trading or sitting on trades, so I found it really hard to utilize the large time frames. I like to be in and out, a day trader. Her system is like any system, it gives you a method for entries and exits. Each entry has 50% chance of moving in your direction and her method gives you a slight edge or helps you gain a higher probability of being on the winning side. No trading system is consistently profitable, your either on the winning side or your not. The key is to get in when your system tells you to, act on your systems signals, utilize stops or get out as soon as the trade tells you it’s not going in your direction.

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Popularity: 4%

Yen Swing Trade Analysis

TRADE

Date: Friday, February 24th

Entry: Short USD/JPY at 117.05

Reason for trade/setup: With a downward trend in motion, I was looking for a swing trade to short the USD/JPY.  I was waiting for price to retrace back up where a minor Asian session breakdown occurred several hours prior at 117.10.  The DMI indicator was used as confirmation that the existing trend was still in place.

Initial Stop:  117.19; the high of previous bar

Initial Target:  116.40

RESULT 

Exit: 116.76

Reason for Exit:  End of day

Profit/loss:  +29 pips/ +$745.10 (3 lots)

Trade executed according to plan? yes

Outcome: This trade entry went exactly according to plan so much so that it surprised me.  The price didn’t reach my limit and that didn’t surprise me. 

Thoughts:  The market doesn’t generate trades like this everyday and this setup would only apply to trending markets.

 

 

 

 

 

Popularity: 5%

Read more Raghee Posts

Raghee webinar visitors!  Read my previous posts regarding Raghee especially the posts regarding her  EZ2Trade software where if you buy it directly from Divergence Software costs extremely less than $195 a month.

Raghee Horner Previous Posts

Popularity: 3%

Raghee Horner Tricks of the Trade

Raghee’s first webinar today just ended and if you have been to her previous webinars didn’t offer anything new.  As I have always said about Raghee, I definately admire her simplicity.  She relies on "The Wave" (34 EMA of high, low, close), fibonacci retracements, and trendlines.  These are all great indicators to rely on.

There were some users in the webinar that were bashing her methods which I think is uncalled for.  Not only do I admire her simplicity but also her dedication and consistency.  She has developed her own style of trading and in addition to wanting to make a couple of more bucks for herself is offering her time to teach others.  That should be worth something.  If anything, these webinars are quite motivational and that alone will carry me to her webinar at 4:00 EST.

Popularity: 3%

12 Weeks Trading Forex

With 12 weeks of trading forex in the books, I currently have a balance of $17,346.74.  I started with exactly $10,000 12 weeks ago with the goal of quitting my job to trade full-time by October 1st of this year.  That would leave me with 218 days left.  After about 3 months of trading, I cannot make a determination if this is a realistic date or just plain crazy.  As I’ve stated before, I live in the New York city area where the cost of living is higher than most cities in the United States.  I realistically need to make at least $100,000 a year to support my lifestyle.  This includes food, a roof over my head, transportation, and a retirement plan not to mention student loans.  In 12 weeks, I’ve profited $7,346.74 which averages to $31835.87 for a year.  That is not going to cut it nor is it guaranteed that I will consistently make money each month.  If I look at my performance in 4 week increments, things tend to look a bit better.

Weeks 1-4   +1101
Weeks 5-8   +1779
Weeks 9-12  +4467 

This week I started out down similar to last week.  I rallyed back to end the week down only $300. This is the second straight week where I had to bite and scratch to get closer to the black.  I made some stupid impulsive trades but generally had a decent week sticking to my plan. 

I’ve come to the conclusion that I’m a lot more effective when I place an order that doesn’t fill at the current market price.  Instead of going to the price, I let the price come to me.  Last night, I placed an order to sell the USD/JPY at 117.05 when the price was trading at 116.70.  Eventually my order was filled and I ended the week making about $800 on this trade.  When you let price come to you, trading becomes a lot less impulsive.  There is no question that I’ve made a lot more money in my sleep than when I’m awake.  You can’t overtrade, change your strategy, or act impulsively when your fast asleep in the middle of the night. 

I haven’t had time to put all of my Trade Analysis down on "paper" yet but I will get to it this weekend.  Don’t forget that there are 2 Raghee Horner webinars this weekend.  They are free and I’m sure space is still available.  I went to her last 2 webinars and found them motivational and beneficial.  I hope to hear some of you there tomorrow.

Popularity: 2%

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