Are There Anymore Yen Sellers Out There?

I still keep the "Forex Volume Report" or as it is formally called, "The Commitment of Traders Report" up-to-date.  The report is released once a week by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  If you want to view the breakdown of the data or links to resources on how to take advantage of the report, visit http://www.forexproject.com/Forex_Volume/. 

I've heard differing opinions on whether the COT report is actually useful except in instances where there is data that suggests that there is extreme positioning in a currency.   Currently there is extreme short positioning in the Japanese Yen as evidenced by the graph:

 

 

 

 

You can see that the number of short positions (in red) are at an extreme level, a level higher than at anytime during the past year.  You have to wonder if there are anymore Yen sellers out there or enough to push the USD/JPY higher.   You can also see that the long positions (blue) are slowly increasing.  

Popularity: 1%

Week 5 Forex Performance

I took a 3 day break from doing anything forex related over the Memorial Day Weekend.  Sometimes 3 days isn't even enough time off from this craziness.

My Week 5 performance basically wiped out most of my gains from week 3 and week 4.  I had 6 profitable trades, 6 unprofitable trades, and 1 scratch.  I lost a total of 69 pips or $619.40.  Eventually having a poor risk/reward will come back to bite you.   

What am I going to change this week? Not much.  I am going to try to let my profits run this week.  I don't have much more to say right now about this.  I just don't.

The newest Commitment of Traders report from Friday is processes and can be found at http://www.forexproject.com/Forex_Volume/

We have some economic announcement's this week that could be nice market movers, the FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday and the always interesting Nonfarm Employment change on Friday.

 

Popularity: 4%

May 2 CFTC Report

I've been reading more about the Commitment of Traders Report and how knowing not only non-commercial positions but commercial as well can assist in longer term trades.  For those of you that don't know what the Commitment of Traders report is, let me tell you.

Some of this information was provided with assistance from Alexander Elder's book, "Entries and Exits"

First, the report is really the only way for private traders to get an idea of the volume for each currency pair.  Each week (Wednesday), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases the number of open positions, short positions and long positions in a given commodity.  These positions are given for 3 groups of traders, hedgers, big traders, and small traders.   "Savvy COT analysts compare current positions to historical norms and look for situations where hedgers, or the smart money (big traders) and small traders… are dead set against each other.  If one group is heavily short while the other is heavily long, which one would you like to join?  If you find that in a certain market the smart money is overwhelmingly on one side, while the small spec are mobbing the other, it is time to use technical analysis to look for entries on the side of the hedgers."

Currently, I only provide non-commercial positions or small traders.  You can read more about how to use just this information by going to http://www.forexproject.com/forex_volume

In the upcoming weeks, I am going to start providing data and graphs for all 3 groups of traders.  I just have to put my programming hat on and find the time to do it. 

Popularity: 3%

Forex Volume April 18th Report

The latest Commitments of Traders Report was released today.

Name	Open Int	Long Pos	Short Pos
Crude Oil	495795	183102	116353
CAD	40999	23225	16307
CHF	43779	10744	32912
GBP	49814	27302	22208
JPY	118999	38749	79890
USD Indx	18272	11223	4994
EUR	86016	70019	14677
NZD	6072	5272	800
AUD	30108	20597	9436

Crude Oil - ↑ Very Bullish

CAD - ↑ Very Bullish

CHF - ↓ Very Bearish

GBP - ↑ Bullish

JPY - ↓ Very Bearish

USD Index - ↑ Very Bullish

EUR - ↑Very Bullish

NZD - ↑Very Bullish

AUD - ↑Very Bullish 

Popularity: 6%

Forex Volume April 4th Report

The new Commitment of Traders report was released today and as always can be viewed at any time by going to http://www.forexproject.com/forex_volume

The positions continue to pile up on the side of the EURO.  This week there were +11,000 more long positions.  

Name	Open Int	Long Pos	Short Pos	Open Int Change	Long Pos Change	Short Pos Change	L/S Ratio
Crude Oil	459662	149602	119577	28262	14444	-8363	55.58
CAD	29797	12081	16227	-5994	-1193	-4858	42.68
CHF	52952	7412	45540	-4222	1592	-5615	14.00
GBP	38714	14015	24699	7174	1524	5924	36.20
JPY	94296	30603	63319	9065	3374	5678	32.58
USD Indx	17729	11227	4483	-1329	-2466	1120	71.46
EUR	83981	67859	15467	11310	11523	-58	81.44
NZD	5616	3002	2614	57	-227	284	53.45
AUD	49110	21629	27479	-1266	3107	-4375	44.04

Popularity: 1%

Newest Forex Volume Report Released

Open interest dropped across the board this week except in the Australian dollar.

Canadian Dollar
Big swing from NET LONG to NET SHORT

Swiss Franc
Very Bearish.  50,327 Short positions vs. 3,462 Long positions

British Pound
18,418 Short positions, 13,183 Long positions 

Japanese Yen
Decrease of 17,632 short positions.  Still Bearish 

USD Index 
Decrease of 7,196 long positions.  Still bullish with 11,114 Long positions and 4,491 Short positions 

Euro 
EURO remains Bullish with another decrease this week in Short positions (-10,149) 

New Zealand Dollar
Less Bullish than last week with decrease of 688 long positions and increase of 178 short positions 

Australian Dollar
Bearish.  Increase of 15,455 Short positions on increasing open interest. 

Crude Oil 
Less open interest than last week with an almost equal balance of long (128,840) to short (135,177) positions. 

Popularity: 4%

March 7 Commitment of Traders Report Released

As always, visit http://www.forexproject.com/Forex_Volume to view "Forex Volume"

CAD - No significant changes, VERY BULLISH
CHF - 22,373 less short positions, VERY BEARISH
GBP - Increase of 4,081 short positions, BEARISH
JPY - Increase of 14,161 short positions, BEARISH
EUR - Increase of 3,519 short positions, MIXED to slightly BULLISH
NZD - no significant changes, BULLISH
AUD - increase of 4,899 short positions, MIXED

Popularity: 4%

CFTC report for February 28th Released

As always, the "Forex Volume" reports can be viewed at http://www.forexproject.com/Forex_Volume/

Summary:

1.  CAD increase of 8,221 long positions (Sentiment:  Very Bullish)
2.  CHF increase of 23,807 short positions (Sentiment: Extremely Bearish)
3.  GBP decrease of 11,359 short positions (Sentiment: Bearish)
4.  JPY decrease of 33,735 short positions, increase of 14,628 long (Sentiment: Bearish)
5.  USD Index had no major changes (Sentiment: Extremely Bullish)
6.  EUR increase of 8,785 long positions (Sentiment: Bullish)
7.  NZD had no major changes (Sentiment: Bullish)
8.  AUD decrease of 3,474 long positions (Sentiment: Neutral)

Popularity: 3%

Latest Commitment of Traders Report 2006-02-14

The new Commitment of Traders report was released today. 

CAD: No major changes; Strong Long Sentiment

CHF: Open interest increases by 12,264; long position decrease -2,172; short position increase 14,486; Sentiment remains strongly short

GBP: 3,000 less long positions, 7,129 more short positions; Sentiment remains strongly short

JPY: More open interest than any currency with 110,209 open interest, with a decrease of 5,000 short positions; Sentiment remains strongly short

EUR: 3,294 more short positions; 1,055 less long positions; Sentiment remains a bit in favor of long positions

NZD: Only 5,351 open interest with 4,622 long, 611 short; Sentiment dominantly long

AUD: 8,640 less long positions, 4,090 more short positions; Sentiment remains net long

USD Index:  15,244 long positions, 3,095 short positions; USD remains net long

See the full report at  http://www.forexproject.com/Forex_Volume/

Popularity: 1%

New CFTC report processed

The new CFTC report was listed yesterday and data can be found in the usual spot, http://www.forexproject.com/Forex_Volume/

Here’s a quick breakdown:

-CAD lots of additional open interest (21549), 75% of that long positions
-CHF more open interest in shorts
-GBP more short open interest
-JPY had 27645 more open interest positions, 25056 of those short
-EUR 1730 more long, 2812 short
-AUD 8625 more long this week, a decline of 1257 short 

Popularity: 1%

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