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Items Tagged With Learn Forex

Most Volatile Pairs during Asian Session
Written By: Rich
2006-04-20 21:15:35

Before I dive into this post, let me tell you that from everything I've read and watched from Rob Booker (and from everything he has directly told me) it doesn't seem like the Asian session exists to him.  Now he hasn't told me this exactly but he seems to concentrate his effort on the NY Session from 7 am EST - 11 am EST.  I told you earlier today that when he was working full-time, he was trading the European session and he did tell me yesterday that you will get a lot of trade opportunities from 4 am EST.  So from the information I've gathered, I'd have to say he recommends trading during the hours of 2 am and 11 am EST.  

What about the Asian session?  For those of you that work in the United States or Canada or anywhere close to the Eastern Time Zone, the Asian session gives us a chance to actually trade when we get home from work without having to get up in the early morning hours with 1/2 a nights sleep to trade the European session.   

I will ask Rob if he recommends trading the Asian session or if any of his student have success doing so.

What I wanted to do in this post was to mention the most historically volatile pairs during the Asian Session thanks to Kathy Lien from FXCM.  Kathy did a good amount of research on this subject and I thank her for the information though I have asked for absolutely no permission to use it.  These PIP ranges are for the time period between 7 p.m. - 4 a.m. EST

Currency Pairs  PIP Range
 GBP/JPY 112 
 GBP/CHF
96 
 USD/JPY 78
 USD/CHF
68
 GBP/USD
65
 AUD/JPY
55
 EUR/CHF 53
 EUR/USD
51
 USD/CAD
47
 NZD/USD 42
 AUD/USD
38
 EUR/GBP 25

As you can see from the chart above, the best options for risk-tolerant traders during this time period are the GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, and USD/JPY.

For risk-averse traders, AUD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF provide more moderate volatility.

The only problem I see with the risk-tolerant pairs, at least 2 of them is the spread.  The GBP/JPY spread at FXCM is 9 pips, the GBP/CHF 15 pips! The USD/JPY offers the lowest spread on FXCM at 4 pips.

The risk-averse pairs are a bit better spread wise with AUD/JPY at 8 pips, GBP/USD at 5 pips, and the USD/CHF also at 5 pips. 



Alexander Elder Impulse System
Written By: Rich
2006-05-01 21:49:15

I've been reading Alexander Elder's popular book, "Come Into My Trading Room" and at the bookstore started to read his newest book titled, "Entries & Exits."  He mentions the Impulse System  a lot and most of the traders he interviewed for his latest book use it.  It's great for momentum trading which is what I've been studying with Rob Booker.  Yes this is yet another indicator but it really just incorporates what I already have on the screen, EMA's and MACD histogram.  One measures inertia, the other momentum.  What it does is quite simple.

When both the EMA and the MACD histogram point in the same direction, they recognize an impulse worth following.  

For example, if the 13 EMA is rising (current bar is greater than last bar) and the MACD histogram is rising (current bar is greater than last bar), this is a signal to stick to long trades if you are trading.  The opposite is true for short trades.

The impulse indicator that is sold everywhere colors the price bars green if the impulse is long, red if the impulse is short, and blue if there is no impulse (which means you could go long or short.)  One method of using this is to use 2 time frames for confirmation.  So if you are trading the 15 minute, if the impulse system is showing long trades, multiply your time frame by 5 and check that chart to see if the impulse system is also showing long.  In this case, you would be using the 15 minute and 75 minute charts.

As I said, this is sold everywhere but to be honest is really one of the most simple of indicators to program.  I did it in about 30 minutes.  If you've read some of Elder's books, you may be interested in it.  If not, read about it because Elder has a lot of great content plus he has some sort of big degree in Psychology.

Here is the indicator for esignal.  If you are truly interested and use other charting software than esignal, let me know and I may be able to help.

Right click and save to your esignal Formulas folder. 

Elder Impulse Indicator by Forex Project



Gartley and Wolfe Waves
Written By: Rich
2006-03-26 13:16:38

Brent brought up Gartley and Wolfe Waves a couple of days ago as a way of predicting where price is heading and when it will get there.  I started to read the sparse amount of information out there but from what I have read, it's pretty interesting stuff.  For a quick overview, visit http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/040405.asp

Here's a comment and recommended links from Brent:

According to my research the gartley and butterly patterns have an 80% success rate.

http://www.moneytec.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17228

http://www.forex-tsd.com/suggestions-trading-systems/1093-harmonic-trading-12.html

http://www.harmonictrader.com/

Gartley, Butterfly Patterns

http://www.forex-tsd.com/metatrader-4/885-price-patterns-gartley-butterfly-bat-2.html



Before Training Goal and Performance
Written By: Rich
2006-04-22 18:38:12
Forex Project - The Ultimate Goal - Trading Forex as my Full-Time Job

DAYS LEFT TO REACH GOAL: -691

My ultimate goal is to quit my day job and trade full-time starting October 1st, 2006. This may be optimistic but I have to set my goals high. From this page, I will track my daily progress and evaluate whether I'm on track to fulfill my goal.

Forex Weekly Profit Loss in Dollars
Forex Weekly Profit Loss Percentage

Week #Pip P/LGross P/LTotal # of TradesTotal Winning TradesTotal Losing TradesTotal Even TradesAvg. Winning pipsAvg. Losing pips
173$650.81165029.0000-20.2000
280$748.421813041.8750-19.6154
3-15$-55.1942325.0000-57.5000
4-15$-242.21046031.2500-23.3333
5289$2453.420128039.5833-23.2500
6-41$-619.51486024.8750-40.0000
7189$1727.113112023.6364-35.5000
8-214$-1782.6725044.0000-60.4000
9169$1425330056.3333
10304$25983300101.3333
1171$742.2853041.4000-45.3333
12-33$-298.71046093.0000-67.5000
13-165$-1827.219109032.1000-54.0000
14-291$-3055.7211011026.3000-50.3636
15-122$-1220513130.0000-50.6667
16-48$-480321046.0000-140.0000
17-65$-539.52020-32.5000
180$-45.9211027.0000-27.0000
Total166$178.418194874


The Best Traders on Oanda Forums
Written By: Rich
2006-07-25 14:13:28

I know it isn't easy to define who are the best forex traders because really, you only know how good you are.  Knowing this, I posted to the Oanda forum asking the more informed and experienced users who the most "successful" or experienced traders were.  

www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboard/ultimatebb.cgi

I received a response with traders whose member names were ~chaffcombe , blueingreen, oldhand, craigatk, altman, Airoekhion, and danielgsx.  I wanted this information because I really want to concentrate on reading posts by them with the hope of learning more.

The post that caught my eye asked the question, "Right tools for trends and ranges?"  The post is located here: http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboard/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=15;t=004808;p=1

There are a lot of recommendations but I was watching what oldhand had to say:

While I agree with the "eyeball" indicator, I'd have to disagree about the value of "indicators" taken by many. For example, s/r lines, whether horizontal or angled are probably used by all traders to greater or lesser degree and they are just as much "indicators" as MACD/RSI/CCI etc. Trend lines and channels in my experience being the strongest of all devices to suggest high probability directional clues. What about moving averages? The 100/200 SMAs in virtually all time frames are a must for any trader to track. The 200 SMA especially on weeklies and dailies is a must and to ignore such an indicator or be oblivious to it is guaranteed to lead to mis-steps on trades. Not knowing Fib levels for your price analysis is likewise operating with one eye closed.

Whether "indicators" inform about some objective underlying reality about price patterns or simply are self-fullfilling reations of various trading segments is a question that can never be answered one way or another. But, the fact that the majority of traders rely upon the variety of indicators to make decisions is not in doubt. Your best trades are always going to be when a variety of indicators, whether moving averages, Fib levels, trend lines etc all line up at certain points and within different time frames. For example, if you see price touch a channel line on the daily and let's say the 3 hour, and RSI is in over sold/bought territory, and a Fib level is at the same point, and MACD or Momemtum paint a divergence, price is going to react in a major way and predictably. Why? Simple really. The different trader segments, some weekly or daily players relying lets say on channel lines, and another segment relying on Fib levels, and another on RSI levels and so on, are going to all react at that point causing a counter price movement. How far price will move is very difficult to predict but direction is not.

So, I'd say a study and attention to indicators is a must for any trader and well worth the effort.






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