Items Tagged With November 2005

In late New York trading, the euro was at $1.2014, up from $1.1988 late Monday in New York, according to EBS. The dollar edged up to 116.63 yen from 116.39 yen, but slipped to 1.2877 Swiss francs from 1.2890 francs. The pound was down at $1.7656 from $1.7701, and the euro was at 140.00 yen versus 139.50 yen.

There is an article in the November 28th issue of Newsweek about China's imminent slowdown due to overproduction, zero margins, and overdependence on the US consumer.  It was actually a surprise to me that investors were pulling money out instead of in.

Second Thoughts 

Here's an interesting article from the Wall Street Journal about Warren Buffet and the difficulty with taking up forex positions based on fundamental economic analysis alone:

"In the early 1920s, John Maynard Keynes attempted to apply his economic views to speculation in the foreign-exchange markets. Though Mr. Keynes was nearly bankrupted by this experience, he learned a valuable lesson: It is difficult to earn money in forex markets from taking positions based on fundamental economic analysis. Recent losses from shorting the dollar suggest Warren Buffett is receiving a similar lesson.

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I was close with my estimate.  I'm profiting from that guess as I write this with 3 short EUR/USD lots.

Consumer Confidence Report Here 

The dollar continues to dominate and a breach of the important levels from the last 2 weeks or so could come into play:

USD/JPY    119.55 (currently trading at 1.1900)
EUR/USD   1.1640 (currently trading at 1.1726)
GBP/USD   1.7096 (currently trading at 1.7164)
USD/CHF   1.3284 (currently trading at 1.3195)

Fed in November wondered how to say "enough" on rates The Fed was unanimous in November, but some were concerned over the risk of tightening too far.

Merkel Elected as Germany's First Female Chancellor

Stocks move lower as crude oil heads $1 higher, investors nibble at profits

Manufacturers urge harder U.S. stand on China yuan 

Here is a link to the Weekly FX Strategy Briefing.  It includes analysis of the week for the major currency pairs.  It's always beneficial to hear another perspective. 

http://cmsfx.com/resources/commentaries/Weekly/Nilsson-2005-11-08-15-40-24-en.pdf