Items Tagged With October 2005

I've been watching the majors this evening and the movement has mostly been against the USD.   I'm waiting for the US data in the morning which includes September CPI, September Retail Sales, September Industrial Production, August Business Inventories, and the October Michigan Sentiment survey.  That's quite a lot of market moving data.  We'll see if the USD can break through those support and resistance levels. 

I had a bad trading week and I'm still stuck in my USD/JPY Short Position at 114.02.  This evening, the Yen made a move as low as 114.36 but that was about all it could muster.  The USD/JPY currently trades at 114.55.   

I'm stuck in a losing streak over the past 5-6 trading sessions.  The USD advanced overnight against the Yen and I lost 36 pips before my stop was hit.  I've been going against the well-known saying, "The Trend is Your Friend."  To get back to winning, I'm going to make the trend my friend and not deviate from it.

As expected, volume is expected to be very very light during Asian and European trading sessions.  Expect tight ranges....  In addition, with the Tokyo market closed today, liquidity will be at a premium.

http://www.bigcurrency.com/forex_news/Currency_News/Little_Activity_in_Early_Trading_20051009160/  

I almost sold my position in the GBP/USD this morning but opted to wait.  This goes against all the principles of money management.  So I'm not proud of this and once again promise to never do this again.  Nevertheless, the Sterling has made a minor comeback in afternoon trading and I'm down 241 pips:

From the daily charts it looks like even though the USD has been relentless against the EURO, solid support exists at 1.1896.  I'm going to continue to watch and may be looking at going long on this pair.  The 38.2% fibonacci for monthly high and today's monthly low is 1.2180.  The one thing that is concerning is that all statements out of the US today point toward interest rates increasing.

I'm down over 45 pips on my short of USD/JPY yesterday evening.  I have not had a good week.  I will exit my USD/JPY position if it breaks the 114.50 barrier which is solid long-term 38.2% fibonacci of 135.20-101.70 high low.  In fact, I may exit and the reverse my position.  The pair seems to have stalled at 114.49 so I'll be watching closely.

Pressure continues on the non-US currencies as the dollar continues its press.  The USD/JPY has been between 114.45 and 114.60 for the latter part of the day and I'm at 60 pips down right now.  With the Japanese trading day opening, I'm waiting to find some direction.

I'm going to try to think like an institutional investor because I know they know what I'm thinking.  To them, it's like taking candy from a baby. 

Waking up this morning, the Yen is at 115.80 and the news out of Japan is that they are comfortable with the Yen being weaker versus the USD.  I think I should go long now.  But wait, that's exactly what the big guys want you to do.  The news is already priced into the Yen and the technicals show that it is overbought right now.  The one hour charts show the SMA(10)=115.65, SMA(20)=115.37, and the SMA(30)=115.16.  These are the support lines I'm looking at right now.  I'll watch the price and wait for it to hit one of these support lines before going long.  Looking at my Fibonacci Project Lesson from yesterday, there is a good bet that the USD will advance in the near future to 116.50. 

To a professional trader, the answer to this question is obvious.  But to a beginner, there may not be an easy answer.

Inflation is said to be watched very closely by all in the financial community and that is why we should all know the answer to this question.