Forex Volume April 18th Report
The latest Commitments of Traders Report was released today.
| Name | Open Int | Long Pos | Short Pos |
| Crude Oil | 495795 | 183102 | 116353 |
| CAD | 40999 | 23225 | 16307 |
| CHF | 43779 | 10744 | 32912 |
| GBP | 49814 | 27302 | 22208 |
| JPY | 118999 | 38749 | 79890 |
| USD Indx | 18272 | 11223 | 4994 |
| EUR | 86016 | 70019 | 14677 |
| NZD | 6072 | 5272 | 800 |
| AUD | 30108 | 20597 | 9436 |
Crude Oil – ↑ Very Bullish
CAD – ↑ Very Bullish
CHF – ↓ Very Bearish
GBP – ↑ Bullish
JPY – ↓ Very Bearish
USD Index – ↑ Very Bullish
EUR – ↑Very Bullish
NZD – ↑Very Bullish
AUD – ↑Very Bullish
Popularity: 6% [?]
There’s a New Kid in Town
There's a new guest trader on fxcmtr.com. His name is John Putnam and he comes from Putnam Financial.
This is John's Trade Methodology:
| FX Analytics (FXAN) is a blend of quantitative modeling, combined with advanced technical overlays. PFI's trade and forecast models are built around a balanced dollar index providing exceptional insight and liquidity into a large group of US based pairs. FXAN utilizes a mathematical model and scientific grade software to process a large dataset across a distributive grid of computers. This forecast is then triggered into actual trades through a series of overlays where algorithm efficiency, market dynamics and specific risks are modeled and factored in. |
HIS ANALYSIS?
Trade Idea:
Long EUR/USD on a bullish candle reversal (1 hour or 2 hour bullish Harami) that fails to sustain a break below 1.2240
Stops below 1.2210
Target 1.2330
Dollar forecast for the next 24hrs: Bearish
Stronger EUR/USD, GBP USD & AUD/USD
Weaker USD/JPY, USD/CHF & USD/CAD
Market Dynamics:
Favored – Cyclical & Regression Models
At Risk – Trend Models
PFI exited its long EUR/USD trade this morning for 221 pips. For all practical purposes I could have stayed with it given the model bias remains bearish on the dollar. That said, with a major event risk on the horizon (NFP on Friday) I've decided to stand aside for the balance of the week.
Today's price action will probably look a lot like yesterdays and will remain choppy through the day. This makes the target of the trade idea (1.2330) a tough task in the short term and could push traders into Friday trying to achieve it; which I don't encourage. 1.2240 and 1.2210 are Bollinger Band and ma support levels (different time frames) with 1.2330 bringing in substantial Bollinger Band resistance.
Overall the dollar is finding some support at our lower channel; it would be unusual for the dollar to sustain a push deeper into this region after floating across the top for any length of time. If we don't see a substantial pull-back to a more neutral position tomorrow, I'd almost expect to see NFP come out stronger than expected or an overall muted reaction to poor numbers, which will leave the market in good shape for a technical reversal at the beginning of the week.
Popularity: 3% [?]
Newest Forex Volume Report Released
Open interest dropped across the board this week except in the Australian dollar.
Canadian Dollar 
Big swing from NET LONG to NET SHORT
Swiss Franc
Very Bearish. 50,327 Short positions vs. 3,462 Long positions
British Pound
18,418 Short positions, 13,183 Long positions
Japanese Yen
Decrease of 17,632 short positions. Still Bearish
USD Index 
Decrease of 7,196 long positions. Still bullish with 11,114 Long positions and 4,491 Short positions
Euro
EURO remains Bullish with another decrease this week in Short positions (-10,149)
New Zealand Dollar
Less Bullish than last week with decrease of 688 long positions and increase of 178 short positions
Australian Dollar
Bearish. Increase of 15,455 Short positions on increasing open interest.
Crude Oil 
Less open interest than last week with an almost equal balance of long (128,840) to short (135,177) positions.
Popularity: 4% [?]
CFTC report for February 28th Released
As always, the "Forex Volume" reports can be viewed at http://www.forexproject.com/Forex_Volume/
Summary:
1. CAD increase of 8,221 long positions (Sentiment: Very Bullish)
2. CHF increase of 23,807 short positions (Sentiment: Extremely Bearish)
3. GBP decrease of 11,359 short positions (Sentiment: Bearish)
4. JPY decrease of 33,735 short positions, increase of 14,628 long (Sentiment: Bearish)
5. USD Index had no major changes (Sentiment: Extremely Bullish)
6. EUR increase of 8,785 long positions (Sentiment: Bullish)
7. NZD had no major changes (Sentiment: Bullish)
8. AUD decrease of 3,474 long positions (Sentiment: Neutral)
Popularity: 3% [?]
Playing the Odds with a Bearish Engulfing
The graphic below is the weekly EUR/USD chart with corresponding candlestick patterns. As you can see, going into next weeks trading, we are following an engulfing bear. Care to play the odds that this week will see more bearish action? Since 1999, here are the pip profit/loss if going short for the week following an engulfing bear:
+51, +266, +21, +124, -58, +132, +38, +8, +11, +46, -10, +136
Out of 12 weeks, only 2 of the weeks were losing and they were small losses of 58 pips and 10 pips. The average profit was 83.3 pips over the other 10 weeks.
We could very well see another bearish week if we played the odds. I know I will be.
Popularity: 6% [?]
