The MACD Is Overrated

I read a pretty enlightening article on the MACD today and how this indicator has been elevated to mystical status.  Is this deserving?  According to the author, no.  The MACD is an indicator based on moving averages; that's it.  "In the end, the performance of moving averages and indicators based on moving averages will always be, well, average." I personally use the MACD and I'll admit that I've been guilty of elevating this indicator to mystical status as well.  I predominantly use it to identify divergence between price, but I also use it to identify momentum.  

I've talked in the past about my avoidance of lagging indicators and the author of this article says that if this is the route that you want to go (I do), then here is what your toolbox should and should not be.

Your toolbox if you want to perform technical analysis in a lagging manner:

1. Moving averages
2. MACD
3. Stochastics
4. Parabolic SARs
5. Bollinger Bands 

Your toolbox if you want to know where price "is likely to go next… as often as 80% of the time."

1. Trendlines
2. Pivot Points
3. Candlestick

This article presents far from revolutionary information but it goes against from the norm and states why you would be best served by using something other than the MACD.   That is why I like this article.  There are just so many articles on how to use the MACD to your advantage.  

The author also mentions some candlestick patterns (hammer, star) that when identifying them when price is near pivot points or trend lines, can be more powerful.

Article: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/AgainstMACD.asp

Popularity: 7%

Week 4 Performance Review

Yet another week with low volume where we see Friday prices positioned at the low or high for the week with the advantage going to the USD:

Ranges for the week

EUR/USD: 1.1778-1.1931 (currently 1.1788)
GBP/USD: 1.7129-1.7408 (currently 1.7189)
USD/CHF: 1.3050-1.3197 (currently 1.3182)
USD/JPY: 116.17-118.16 (currently 117.84) 

Week 4 was another losing week for me (-15 pips, -$242, 4 winning trades, 6 losing trades)

After 4 weeks of trading, I’m still up 123 pips and $1100.  If I were trading full-time, the $1100 wouldn’t be enough to cover a majority of my expenses this month and I’d probably be homeless.  That is why I’m holding on to my full-time job for now until I can see consistent returns.

This week my charts got "fatter" as I added more indicators and moving averages. 

In week 1 and 2, I was in "Raghee Horner" mode and my charts only had the wave and MACD indicators.   Weeks 1 and 2 just so happened to be my most profitable.  I wasn’t comfortable with just going through the motions of using only her strategy so in weeks 3 and 4, I’ve been experimenting more with EMA’s (8,21,50,100,200), CCI (Thanks Andrei), candlestick patterns, and other indicators like momentum, stochastics, RSI, and bollinger bands.  Weeks 3 and 4 might have been a good week to take a sabbatical to just watch the charts and train my eye to spot patterns as they emerge as Andrei mentioned in one of his helpful comments this week.

In the meantime, I’m reading a lot and trying to learn as much as possible.  I followed others advice and picked up a copy of "Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline, and a Winning Attitude."  I’ve also been lightly reading, "The Candlestick Course" by Steve Nison and "Day Trading the Currency Market" by Kathy Lien.  Lien’s book is much better than I thought and has given me additional insight into the market that I otherwise would have missed.

Happy New Year!

Popularity: 4%