Mellon Bank Morning Briefing

I like reading this everyday when I have time because it is coming from 1 of the top 20 or so foreign exchange dealing desks.  It is a great resource to get the mind going in the morning especially before major economic releases like the CPI this morning.  This release could be the final dagger in the dollar that pushes it over the edge and allows currencies like the Sterling to push past those all important triple zeros (1.9000)

https://fx.mellon.com/currencyresearch/globalfxdaily.html  

Popularity: 1%

Top Market Moving Indicators

Like many Mondays, tomorrow probably won't be moved by the very latest economic release because there really aren't with 1 exception. At 9 a.m. tomorrow, the TIC report is released.  This report measures demand for US assets and could be yet another nail in the dollar but I'll be watching just to see if this is a report that would move the market in the future.  See Kathy Lien's study that puts TIC report at market mover #9 for first 20 minutes after release and #3 for the entire day.

I'm going to be releasing my Economic Release PDF again this week with comments.  It looks like Wednesday (US CPI) and Thursday (Bernanke Speaks) are possible US session movers and there are a couple of other important non-US releases like the BOJ Interest Rate Statement on Friday (1 am EST.)

In much of my reading, I stumble upon useful bits of information.  There was a study by Kathy Lien, an FXCM strategist, of the top market-moving economic indicators for the Dollar during the first 20 minutes following a release and for the rest of the day.  These are ranked from highest average pip range and are only for the EUR/USD.  Considering other pairs like the GBP/USD react more to these economic releases, the average pip range would be much higher.

First 20 minutes

1. Unemployment (nonfarm payrolls) 124 p
2. Interest rates(FOMC) 74 p
3. Trade balance 64 p
4. CPI 44 p
5. Retail sales 43 p
6. GDP 43 p
7. Current account 43 p
8. Durable Goods 39 p
9. TIC data 33 p

Daily

1. Unemployment 193 p
2. Interest rates (FOMC) 140 p
3. TIC data 132 p
4. Trade balance 129 p
5. Current account 127 p
6. Durable goods 126 p
7. Retail sales 125 p
8. CPI 123 p
9. GDP 110 p

It is interesting to note how the importance of economic reports actually changes over time.  For instance, here is FX Dealer importance of Economic Data as of 1997 and as of 1992.

As of 1997 

1. Unemployment
2. Interest rates
3. Inflation
4. Trade balance
5. GDP          

As of 1992

1. Trade balance
2. Interest rates
3. Unemployment
4. Inflation
5. GDP 

Popularity: 3%

US Trade balance lower than expected

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total March exports of$114.7 billion and imports of $176.7 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $62.0 billion, $3.6 billion less than the $65.6 billion in February, revised. March exports were $2.1 billion more than February exports of $112.5 billion. March imports were $1.5 billion less than February imports of $178.2 billion.

In the future, if you want this report "live", go to the following URL and just keep clicking refresh around 8:30 am EST:

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ftdpress.txt

Popularity: 3%

FOMC

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent.

Economic growth has been quite strong so far this year. The
Committee sees growth as likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace,
partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the
lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.

As yet, the run-up in the prices of energy and other commodities
appears to have had only a modest effect on core inflation, ongoing
productivity gains have helped to hold the growth of unit labor costs
in check, and inflation expectations remain contained. Still, possible
increases in resource utilization, in combination with the elevated
prices of energy and other commodities, have the potential to add to
inflation pressures.

The Committee judges that some further policy firming may yet be
needed to address inflation risks but emphasizes that the extent and
timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of
the economic outlook as implied by incoming information. In any event,
the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed
to support the attainment of its objectives.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke,
Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Jack
Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S.
Kroszner; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; Kevin M.
Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a
25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 6 percent. In taking
this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of
Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York,
Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis,
Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco.

Popularity: 4%

Check out the Updated Economic Calendar

Check out my updated economic calendar.  I have added some additional content based on information obtained from Rob Booker and Boris Schlossberg.

 Forex Economic Calendar 09/05/2006,13:46 994.63 Kb

UPDATE:

Some of you could not read this so I am attaching a JPEG image file:

 Forex Economic calendar 09/05/2006,15:42 137.46 Kb

Popularity: 3%

Volatility this Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

I've been trying to keep on top of economic announcements because they are at the core of the Rob Booker channel trading strategy.  I've created an Economic Announcement PDF with notes that were modified from material provided by Rob Booker.  

According to the calendar, we can expect volatility in the market on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday this week.  Before then, traders may be sitting on their hands waiting for Bernanke's announcement on Wednesday afternoon. 

 Forex Economic Calendar 08/05/2006,14:43 561.15 Kb

Popularity: 4%

Frustration Bottling Up

I'll admit that the frustration of losing is bottling up.  I did manage to end the losing streak by getting a couple of smaller pip wins today after my 30 pips loss.  I ended the day -15 pips.  I sent a message to Rob this afternoon stating my frustration and he had 2 suggestions for me:

1. Stop trading the EURO!  He thinks the currency pair is a "turd" and that it hardly moves.  He told me to stick to the GBP which has been moving big time over the last 2 weeks.
2. Decrease my lot size on a day with no economic news whatsoever.  I only traded 1 lot, followed my rules, and only lost 30 pips so it ain't so bad

I sent a follow-up question asking him what pairs he likes to trade most. 

Popularity: 6%

First Trade 1 PIP Profit!

OK.  I closed out the GBP/USD position with a 1 pip profit for 2 reasons:

1. European session is over
2. All major currency pairs are consolidating in expectation of US economic reports this morning.

I couldn't set the limit to close out the pair at break-even so I performed it manually.  That is why I profited 1 pip.

Good thing I did.  The pair moved upwards 20 pips right after I closed it.   

I'll regroup and see if any setups emerge during the next couple of hours.

Popularity: 4%

Studying in Advance for Next Week

Booker has me a lot more attentive to upcoming Economic Releases and the trade opportunities that can arise.  Therefore, taking 1 day at a time, I took a look at the Global Economic calendar for Monday, April 24th to see if any pairs may exhibit volatility due to any releases.   It generally looks like a light day with NO economic releases out of the United States.  The UK does have a couple of releases at 4:30 a.m. EST including Retail Sales (month over month), Public Finances, and Money Supply (month over month.)  Last month during the retail sales announcement, the GBP/USD moved about 30-35 pips following. 

Therefore, I will plan on getting up at 4:00 a.m. Monday morning to look for a trade opportunity in the GBP/USD using short-term charts (15 minute?)

I'll be going through more of Rob's lessons this weekend and will keep everyone updated on my progress.

I hope everyone had a great trading week.   Have a relaxing weekend. 

Popularity: 3%

Inside the Mind of an Elite Currency Trader

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A new book was released last month titled "Warrior Trading : Inside the Mind of an Elite Currency Trader" by Clifford Bennett.  It seems like I've purchased every currency trading book available except this one.  I may go to Barnes and Noble and see if it's available to skim through.  Here is a description of the book:

One of today's leading currency forecasters shows readers how to
develop the focus, attitude, and mental discipline of top traders

Warrior Trading provides traders with a path to trading success by
developing a mentality and emotional framework common to successful
traders. Warrior Trading includes an enhanced discussion of technical
analysis, and an explanation of how global economic forces are changing
and impacting the markets. Filled with in-depth insights and expert
advice, this comprehensive guide explains the importance of
understanding the market's underlying fundamental and technical
reality-letting traders take advantage of those moments when the
perceptions of most traders are at odds with the underlying reality to
score big in the market.

 

Popularity: 2%

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