I Am Down 430 Pips

Like I said yesterday, this month has not been a good one for many reasons.  I'm currently at -430 pips for February.  The good news is that I finally caught up on recording 2 weeks of Forex trading history which can always be viewed at http://www.forexproject.com/My_Trade_History.

The results could be worse…  Before I completed the history update, I had feared I was down over 600 pips so seeing -430 was a little encouraging.  I actually feel like I may be able to recover with 4 trading days left in this shortened month of February.  I've lost on 3 straight h-system trades which is really indicative of how this system has performed overall for the month, lousy.  http://www.forexproject.com/H_Trading_System

My savior was an EUR/USD trade I took last night where I was able to capture a total of 129 pips(3 lots).  I might have been even more severely in the red if it weren't for this.

I have not been able to follow some of the Lien Schlossberg trade calls but from what I can see, they may turn a slight profit this month.  On the 11 trades I've personally taken due to their calls, I've only profited 2 pips.   But as I said, I've missed a couple of their calls that were profitable.

I'm starting to get back into the swing of things now.   I also feel good about the fact that this website is still alive and running.  I almost had to shut it down or risk having 1/2 of it taken from me due to the divorce.  It's kind of funny that this site was even mentioned in a settlement proposal because I don't make a damn thing compared to the work I put in to it.  Nevertheless, this site is all mine and will continue to move forward.

Take a Leave of Absence From Trading

Without getting too personal, I unfortunately concluded a divorce yesterday.  Even with everything going on the last two weeks, I still tried to follow the market and trade.  This was not a good idea.  Though I didn't really break my rules, my mind was not focused and I just didn't have the capacity to follow my usual routine.   I would have been much better off if I just took the time off from trading.  That is why my advice going forward would be to take a leave of absence from trading if you have issues that will affect your trading routine.  We all have to deal with a variety of personal issues on a day to day basis but some affect us more than others.  Those issues that have the potential to affect judgment or routine should really make you ponder whether trading during this time is a good idea. 

My results this month are horrendous and I cannot fully blame my personal issues.  I think that with the issues aside, this still would have been a losing month but unfortunately with everything going on, it just feels a lot worse.   I have not had time to update my trading log for last week or this week but once I do, I'm sure you will see what I mean.  

So what am I going to do about all of this?

I'm going to accept my losses and try to put this month behind me.  I will of course count it in towards my performance but with the understanding that hopefully an important lesson was learned.  In the future, if I do have some issues that will seriously affect my ability to trade, instead of trying to carry on, I will halt trading entirely.

Adventures of a Currency Trader

Rob Booker released his new book about a week ago titled, "Adventures of a Currency Trader."  A snippet of the inside flap is as follows:

Let author Rob Booker introduce you to Harry Banes. Harry represents
every trader. He doesn't start trading with a huge amount of money, and
his ambition is larger than his ability. His financial situation and
life as a new trader may be difficult, but his determination allows him
to prevail in Adventures of a Currency Trader.

I personally have not seen the book yet.  I have enough Forex books already and I'm not looking to buy it but if I see it in the bookstore, I may sit down and skim through it.  

If you're interested in it, click on the graphic below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Top 25 Forex Bloggers

I figured I would mention this since the owner of Forex Reader emailed me and took the time to compile a list of the top 25 forex bloggers.  I went through the list and personally only found 6 or 7 of them blogs that maintain up-to-date status.  The rest were either abandoned or not really what I would classify a blog.  Either way, take a look for yourself and disseminate what is useful to you. 

http://www.forexreader.com/2007/02/top_25_forex_bl.html

Limited Connectivity

I'm in the middle of moving everything out of my house and into a new one so I have limited internet connectivity.  As a result, trading and postings will be light this week.  

Innerworth Lives

It seems like the Innerworth newsletter I said was dead yesterday actually continues but in another form.  The main contributor, Michael Shopshire will be contributing his work three times a week to Marketwise.  It is now called the Marketwise Mental Edge Newsletter and from what I can tell can only be accessed by going to the MarketBlog Central section of the Marketwise homepage.  

Don’t Listen To Anyone But Yourself

This is a point I've brought up many times and believe me, I've been guilty of violating it on more than one occasion.  Don't listen to anyone but yourself when it comes to taking a trade.   Learn the fundamentals of trading and develop your own style, don't follow someone else's.  The most prevalent category of Forex sites out on the net are related to technical analysis.  I have made it a habit to not read any daily analysis where a lesson is not included.   I feel like you can learn something from what other people write about technical analysis but their commentary has to be geared more towards "students" who may glean something useful from this particular trading strategy.

I follow the Forex Mentor blog from time to time because like I've said above, I try to glean something from Peter Bain's analysis.  I don't know if this guy makes money, this doesn't matter to me.  A lot of what is mentioned on Forex sites on the net is fluff but if you read enough, you may find something that you could incorporate into your trading strategy.  The H-system trading system was created in one day because of one bit of information I read somewhere.  I don't remember where at this point.   I guess the point I'm trying to make in this post is that you can read all the analysis you want but the bottom line is that they are merely guesses by someone just like me and you.   Peter Bain couldn't have been happier about his long USD/CAD trade on Thursday of last week.   He said, "this pair is on fire, and shows no signs of retreating any time soon."  He couldn't say enough about how the loonie was making him lots of money.  What happened a day later to the USD/CAD?  

See the huge plunge on Friday?  I bet he didn't see this coming.  My point isn't to disparage Peter Bain's analysis.  Most of you that have been trading for a while already know this but NOBODY knows what direction a pair is going to go at any particular time.  Maybe the market makers know more but the retail trader doesn't.   This is why you have to plan accordingly when making a trade and manage your risk.   Most of all, don't take a trade because someone else is touting it.  Do your own technical analysis.  

I don't want to sound hypocritical because I am listening to other trader's technical analysis, Lien and Schlossberg.  Using this service was more of an effort to diversify my own trades and also to look deeper into forex signal services.   I'll wait a little longer to see how the service goes before I make a final conclusion.

 

 

 

 

 

Six Reasons Why My Project Will Fail

I don't know what the outcome of the forex project is going to be.  If I had to put a bet on whether or not it was going to eventually succeed, I would have a very tough time deciding.  I'm not even sure if I would put the odds of success at 50% at this stage in my learning cycle.  

Fortunately, I'm a fighter and I don't give up easily.  I've told myself in discussions that I have to give this project at least 5 years of my life before declaring it a failure.  I still have 3 and 1/2 years to go.  Nevertheless, I feel that if I put possible reasons for failure on the table now, it may help me overcome them.  Read more to see the top 6 reasons why my project will fail.

[Read more]

Innerworth Ceases Publication

I'm disappointed that Innerworth, the "Mind Over Markets" website that released daily newsletters related to trading and psychology, has ceased operating.  It was very sudden.  They sent out an email announcement on the same day they were shutting the doors:

We regret to inform you that the Innerworth Mind Over Markets™ daily
newsletter will officially cease publication on Friday, February 9,
2007. Additionally, www.innerworth.com will cease operations on Friday. We appreciate your support and patronage over the years. 

There are just so few reliable and credible forex resources out there.  When you lose one, it seems like you're losing a lot more.  I didn't always read the newsletter but when I did, I found it very well written, informative, and helpful.  

4 Tips To Increase Profitability

I was reading an FXstreet session transcript and wanted to post the information contained about determining trends mainly because it is similar to how I gauge what the trend is.   This method applies to trading shorter time frames since it only takes into account the previous two days.  What data do you need to determine the current trend?

1. Pivot Point
2. LOPS1 or the low of the previous session
3. HOPS1 or the high of the previous session
4. LOPS2 or the low of the session before the previous session
5. HOPS2 or the high of the session before the previous session

I define a session as one day.  Here are the trend criteria:

Possible Uptrend with range-bound bias

• Price above pivot point
• Price below HOPS1 and HOPS2

Possible Downtrend with range-bound bias

• Price below pivot point
• Price above LOPS1 and LOPS2 

Strong Uptrend

• Price above pivot point
• Price above HOPS1 but below HOPS2

Strong Downtrend

• Price below pivot point
• Price below LOPS1 but above LOPS2

Very Strong Uptrend

• Price above pivot point
• Price above both HOPS1 and HOPS2

Very Strong Downtrend

• Price below pivot point
• Price below both LOPS1 and LOPS2

The 4 Tips To Increase Profitability are:

1. Effectively Determine the Trend
2. Use Indicator Signals
3. Use Price Behavior
4. Consistency is the Key

http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2007/01/4_tips_to_incre.html

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