CFTC report for February 28th Released

As always, the "Forex Volume" reports can be viewed at http://www.forexproject.com/Forex_Volume/

Summary:

1.  CAD increase of 8,221 long positions (Sentiment:  Very Bullish)
2.  CHF increase of 23,807 short positions (Sentiment: Extremely Bearish)
3.  GBP decrease of 11,359 short positions (Sentiment: Bearish)
4.  JPY decrease of 33,735 short positions, increase of 14,628 long (Sentiment: Bearish)
5.  USD Index had no major changes (Sentiment: Extremely Bullish)
6.  EUR increase of 8,785 long positions (Sentiment: Bullish)
7.  NZD had no major changes (Sentiment: Bullish)
8.  AUD decrease of 3,474 long positions (Sentiment: Neutral)

The Trend is my Friend

My profit so far this week is $883.  I have felt very comfortable with the flow of the market and when I look at the charts, everything just seems to make sense.  A big reason for this is because of my reluctance to trade a fade or go against the trend.  My trades have been with the trend therefore I’ve been trading the faster time frames.  It’s amazing how much easier a trade can start in your favor by simply trading with the trend.   Even so, my week has not gone without mistakes.

My biggest mistake is exiting positions too early.   I had a short position in the USD/JPY open overnight and through the GDP announcement this morning.  Shortly thereafter, I closed it out for a slight profit.  Afterwards, the pair declined over 40 pips.  The trade was going just fine before I decided to micro-manage it.  I must try to curb this bad habit. 

Candlestick Studies for Next Week

I’m attaching a graphic of 8 currency pairs and their corresponding weekly candlestick patterns provided by Metastock software.  Going into next week, we see:

EUR/USD: Engulfing Bear
AUD/USD: Doji Star
EUR/JPY:  Engulfing Bear

 

 

 

 

Yen Swing Trade Analysis

TRADE

Date: Friday, February 24th

Entry: Short USD/JPY at 117.05

Reason for trade/setup: With a downward trend in motion, I was looking for a swing trade to short the USD/JPY.  I was waiting for price to retrace back up where a minor Asian session breakdown occurred several hours prior at 117.10.  The DMI indicator was used as confirmation that the existing trend was still in place.

Initial Stop:  117.19; the high of previous bar

Initial Target:  116.40

RESULT 

Exit: 116.76

Reason for Exit:  End of day

Profit/loss:  +29 pips/ +$745.10 (3 lots)

Trade executed according to plan? yes

Outcome: This trade entry went exactly according to plan so much so that it surprised me.  The price didn’t reach my limit and that didn’t surprise me. 

Thoughts:  The market doesn’t generate trades like this everyday and this setup would only apply to trending markets.

 

 

 

 

 

12 Weeks Trading Forex

With 12 weeks of trading forex in the books, I currently have a balance of $17,346.74.  I started with exactly $10,000 12 weeks ago with the goal of quitting my job to trade full-time by October 1st of this year.  That would leave me with 218 days left.  After about 3 months of trading, I cannot make a determination if this is a realistic date or just plain crazy.  As I’ve stated before, I live in the New York city area where the cost of living is higher than most cities in the United States.  I realistically need to make at least $100,000 a year to support my lifestyle.  This includes food, a roof over my head, transportation, and a retirement plan not to mention student loans.  In 12 weeks, I’ve profited $7,346.74 which averages to $31835.87 for a year.  That is not going to cut it nor is it guaranteed that I will consistently make money each month.  If I look at my performance in 4 week increments, things tend to look a bit better.

Weeks 1-4   +1101
Weeks 5-8   +1779
Weeks 9-12  +4467 

This week I started out down similar to last week.  I rallyed back to end the week down only $300. This is the second straight week where I had to bite and scratch to get closer to the black.  I made some stupid impulsive trades but generally had a decent week sticking to my plan. 

I’ve come to the conclusion that I’m a lot more effective when I place an order that doesn’t fill at the current market price.  Instead of going to the price, I let the price come to me.  Last night, I placed an order to sell the USD/JPY at 117.05 when the price was trading at 116.70.  Eventually my order was filled and I ended the week making about $800 on this trade.  When you let price come to you, trading becomes a lot less impulsive.  There is no question that I’ve made a lot more money in my sleep than when I’m awake.  You can’t overtrade, change your strategy, or act impulsively when your fast asleep in the middle of the night. 

I haven’t had time to put all of my Trade Analysis down on "paper" yet but I will get to it this weekend.  Don’t forget that there are 2 Raghee Horner webinars this weekend.  They are free and I’m sure space is still available.  I went to her last 2 webinars and found them motivational and beneficial.  I hope to hear some of you there tomorrow.

My performance per Currency Pair

I decided to take a look at all of my trades since day one and find out which currency pair has been most profitable for me.  The results were interesting:

USD/JPY: +3720
EUR/JPY: +2400
GBP/JPY: +1370
USD/CAD: +890
NZD/USD: +470
USD/CHF: +420
EUR/GBP: -70
AUD/USD: -130
GBP/USD: -$410
CHF/JPY: -650
EUR/USD: -$1430

History says to stay away from the EUR/USD pair.  I had a feeling that the USD/JPY was my best friend.

« Previous Page