This week PROFIT GOAL REACHED!
I carefully reached my profit goal in Week 4:
| Week # | Pip P/L | Gross P/L | Total # of Trades | Total Winning Trades | Total Losing Trades | Total Even Trades | Avg. Winning pips | Avg. Losing pips |
| 4 | 61 | $506.8 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 19.8889 | -16.8571 |
This week, I profited 61 p. If anyone remembers, my goal when I started Rob Booker training was to make a total of 60 p each week. Trading 1 lot at a time isn't going to allow me to do this for a living but increasing this to 3 or 4 lots will. I personally feel that a lot of people go into trading forex (myself included) with the thought that they need to profit many many pips each week. When I say many pips, I'm thinking over 200 or so pips a week. I hear how many traders not unlike myself profiting over 400 p for a given week which is absolutely possible but you also have to be honest with yourself. Can you consistently make 400 p a week? I don't think it is possible! Imagine the additional pressure you're putting on yourself when you're expecting even 200 p a week. I find that keeping a pip target low and then raising your lot count is a more realistic expectation.
The above trades were all day trades. I do not have any position trades open and really haven't in a long time. My goal is to continue day trading and then find position trades on longer term charts.
Making 61 p isn't easy. I made 18 trades, profiting on exactly half. I was very careful today and hesitated to make a short AUD trade which would have hit my target (30 p had I made the trade) because I was at +51 p and was satisfied with ending the week here. I did see another trade this morning though and took the chance of going long on the USD/CAD. I was still very careful placing a tight stop and only looking to stay in the trade if it went a little my way I got out of the trade quickly for a 10 pip profit bringing my total for the week at +61.
To be totally up front, I really haven't sent Rob Booker email in weeks nor have I been following his "Chart School" all that closely. I've been discretionary trading all week just like last and I don't know if it is a coincidence or not that I have been profitable both weeks. I'm not trying to apply any new techniques but just trying to become more intimate with the techniques and indicators that I already have. I haven't stopped learning or exploring new techniques or indicators but it really is just for exposure and because I feel the need to learn new things regularly.
I'm away until Sunday and will be back then to get ready for next week. I hope everyone caught some good trades this week. Take care.
Popularity: 8% [?]
TIC Report and my CAD position
TIC data was released at 9 this morning and it was less than
forecasted. Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were
$69.8 billion. The forecast was for 80.2B. I thought that
this would have been bearish for the dollar but the dollar took off
after the release. I scratch my head sometimes and wonder why
what I thought would happen didn't. Either way, I don't care
which direction the price goes because I was waiting for a channel
break either up or down.
The dollar did well overnight and my
long USD/CAD position was up about 70 pips during European session
trading. Ahead of the NY session and the TIC report release,
some of the dollar gains were given back this morning. I had
moved up my stop this morning to 1.1143. I entered at
1.098. The USD/CAD actually hit the .250 fibonacci at 1.1175 and
then bounced off. This is where having multiple lots would have
helped. I was watching 3 fibonacci levels:
.250 = 1.1175 .382=1.1280 .500=1.1374
If
I had entered with 3 lots, I would have placed a stop order at the .250
for the 1st lot and held on to the other 2. This is all in
hindsight but something I thought about when entering this
position. Either way, when the prices started consolidating a bit
this morning, I was stopped out at 1.1143 for a profit of 45
pips. Should I have held on to the position longer? I don't
know. I didn't want to give back all the gains if the dollar
started to get pounded again. I figure I can go long again on a
break above the
.250 fib.
Popularity: 5% [?]
Journal Entry for 46 pip profit trade last night
Click [Read More] to see video of EUR/JPY Trade last night, my first +40 pip profit trade in a long time.
Popularity: 2% [?]
Trading in La La Land
I've said this before but there is no easier way to take the emotion out of a trade by placing the trade, setting your stops and limits and going to bed. I made a decent trade last night going short on the EUR/JPY and woke up to a nice surprise, +42 pips (limit reached, trade closed.) I'll post the journal entry for this one later. I still see a favorable trade lower but I'm waiting for certain levels to hit.
Today should be quite a crazy day to trade. I already missed a trade at 7 this morning on the AUD/USD that I was going to go long on but thought twice because of a resistance line up above. I'm trying to show some discipline by not going into the trade 2 candles late. By then the risk/reward isn't what it was and it's a good way to lose money.
Have a good trading day and be safe.
Popularity: 3% [?]
Should have traded when it fell back in channel.
Journal Entry from European Session Monday Morning
{mosimage}
I'm just now entering a journal entry for a trade I made this morning at 4:30 am. We had a breakout of the upper channel GBP/USD at 4:30 am this morning and I thought we may see a little volatility so I went long at the close of the candle. As you can see, it was quickly stopped out as the price entered back in the channel.
According to Rob Booker's rules, if the price falls back into and closes back into the channel, you can reverse your trade or place a new trade if you were stopped out.
I was stopped out and should have went short on the GBP/USD once this happened. I would have had a stop at the bottom of the channel which would have been good for 50 pips or so.
There's always next time.
Popularity: 4% [?]
May 2 CFTC Report
I've been reading more about the Commitment of Traders Report and how knowing not only non-commercial positions but commercial as well can assist in longer term trades. For those of you that don't know what the Commitment of Traders report is, let me tell you.
Some of this information was provided with assistance from Alexander Elder's book, "Entries and Exits"
First, the report is really the only way for private traders to get an idea of the volume for each currency pair. Each week (Wednesday), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases the number of open positions, short positions and long positions in a given commodity. These positions are given for 3 groups of traders, hedgers, big traders, and small traders. "Savvy COT analysts compare current positions to historical norms and look for situations where hedgers, or the smart money (big traders) and small traders… are dead set against each other. If one group is heavily short while the other is heavily long, which one would you like to join? If you find that in a certain market the smart money is overwhelmingly on one side, while the small spec are mobbing the other, it is time to use technical analysis to look for entries on the side of the hedgers."
Currently, I only provide non-commercial positions or small traders. You can read more about how to use just this information by going to http://www.forexproject.com/forex_volume
In the upcoming weeks, I am going to start providing data and graphs for all 3 groups of traders. I just have to put my programming hat on and find the time to do it.
Popularity: 3% [?]
Throwing Money Out the Window
This is going to be a real quick post. I'll elaborate more when I have time later today. This week, I feel like I'm driving 85 miles an hour down Route 80 in a convertible with 1000 $10 bills just thrown on the seats and on the floor. You can imagine how quickly people would be slamming on the brakes to grab some money off the highway.
Out of total and utter frustration, I actually took the advice of 1 of you who stated that why not go Contrarian on yourself and if you are about to go long on a trade, go short instead. Well, not having a good trading week and unable to get any upward pip profit movement, I decided this morning to do the opposite of what "conventional wisdom" from my brain was telling me. WHAT DO YOU KNOW, a quick and easy 30 pip profit. If I had done this over the last 2 weeks, I would have been very profitable. I don't want to do this though and I don't even know if it could even be successful after a while. I'm thinking that it would be hard for me to continue to study the charts looking for a setup and then at the moment of execution, go opposite of what I think. Could doing this actually change the way I think about trading and mold my thinking to a profitable way? Would I subconsciously look for setups that were contrarian and then go opposite of this which would really just be doing what I'm doing now? Who knows.
Talk to you later.
Popularity: 2% [?]
How Realistic Am I Being About Trading Full-Time
During my workout today, I crunched some numbers in my head to see what it would take for me to be able to trade full-time. I've tried to find these answers on forums like Moneytec. I know a lot of you may visit forex forums but I don't find them beneficial one bit. There is too much garbage to sift through. Someone on Moneytec asked if it is possible to trade Forex full-time and it wound up being a very long thread with no real answers. It was full of people stating that it was possible, others stating that you needed a million dollars in initial capital to do it, and pessimists stating that it was not at all possible. Now it may be that this is not an easy question to answer. I will attempt to run something by all of you and you are free to bash it at will. My assumptions may be conservative or even unrealistic. How would I know the real answer to this question because I have not experienced it yet.
Here are my assumptions:
- You are consistently profitable now
- You have a trading system that wins 60% of the time
- You make 10 trades a week
- Each winning trade averages a profit of 30 pips
- Each losing trade average a loss of 30 pips (Yes, this is a 1:1 risk/reward)
- You start with $10,000 in trading capital
- You do not risk more than 3% on any trade
- You are trading a standard 100K lots
- You will not pull any capital out of your trading account until you reach your full-time goal
The first thing you have to ask yourself is how many lots do I need to trade to make a standard of living that I am accustomed to? I live in the New York City area and for me to maintain my standard of living, I would really need to make $2400 a week. If I make $600 a week trading 1 lot, then I really need to be trading 4 lots at a time to do this full-time.
- 1 lot = $600 per week
- 2 lot = $1200 per week
- 3 lot = $1800 per week
- 4 lot = $2400 per week
- 5 lot = $3200 per week
You are starting with $10,000 in capital, can only risk 3% on each trade, therefore you can only trade 1 lot initially. Based on my assumptions, you are making $600 a week. How long will it take to be able to trade 2 lots?
You will need $20,000 to start trading 2 lots so you must continue to trade 1 lot until you make $10,000 more. Making $600 a week, it will take 17 weeks or roughly 4 months to reach your 2 pip allowance.
Now you have $20,000 and you're trading 2 lots per trade. I need to trade 4 lots and preferably 5 lots a trade to make a living doing this full-time. Trading 2 lots at a time, I'm now making $1200 per week. How long will it take until I can trade 3 lots?
You will need $30,000 to start trading 3 lots so you must continue to trade 2 lots until you make $10,000 more. Making $1200 a week, it will take roughly 8 weeks or 2 months to reach your 3 pip allowance.
Now you have $30,000 and your trading 3 lots per trade. How long will it take until I can trade 4 lots?
You will need $40,000 to start trading 4 lots so you must continue to trade 3 lots until you make $10,000 more. Making $1800 a week, it will take roughly 5 1/2 weeks or a little over a month to reach your 4 pip allowance.
So now you have $40,000 in your account and your trading 4 lots at a time. You are averaging a profit of $2400 a week. How long did it take you to trade full-time?
About 30.5 weeks, a couple of weeks more than a 1/2 a year.
Is this correct? I want anyone and everyone to rip this theory apart!!!
Obviously the key here is you have to be profitable before embarking on this journey. Just being able to do that could take years and years.
Popularity: 5% [?]
Forex Volume April 18th Report
The latest Commitments of Traders Report was released today.
| Name | Open Int | Long Pos | Short Pos |
| Crude Oil | 495795 | 183102 | 116353 |
| CAD | 40999 | 23225 | 16307 |
| CHF | 43779 | 10744 | 32912 |
| GBP | 49814 | 27302 | 22208 |
| JPY | 118999 | 38749 | 79890 |
| USD Indx | 18272 | 11223 | 4994 |
| EUR | 86016 | 70019 | 14677 |
| NZD | 6072 | 5272 | 800 |
| AUD | 30108 | 20597 | 9436 |
Crude Oil – ↑ Very Bullish
CAD – ↑ Very Bullish
CHF – ↓ Very Bearish
GBP – ↑ Bullish
JPY – ↓ Very Bearish
USD Index – ↑ Very Bullish
EUR – ↑Very Bullish
NZD – ↑Very Bullish
AUD – ↑Very Bullish
Popularity: 6% [?]
Rob Booker Day 1
My first day of 1 on 1 training was consumed by just getting acclimated to the program. I received a couple of generic welcome messages from Rob just to get me on track and then later, we were able to exchange some real messages back and forth. Rob is on a trip in Washington D.C. writing his book so for him to respond quickly away from his home base is positive.
I went through the first 3 days of the course work which includes PDF and video tutorials. At the end of each day, you have some real world exercises to perform that are submitted to Rob for review. Day 1 consisted of the Course Introduction which included some of Rob's trading techniques, information on trading multiple time frames, when to trade, and trading the NY session. Rob seems to be stressing the fact that if you are a short term trader, trading the NY session is your best option (and maybe only option.) He has provided steps to trading the NY session.
I skipped Day 2 coursework because it was really for beginners like definitions of pips, currency pairs, etc.
Day 3 was an overview of moving averages. I don't think I'm giving anything away if I told you that Rob really likes the 5, 30, 62 EMA's. This has been well documented on the web. Just from my own experimentation on 15-minute and hourly charts, I can see why he likes them.
Rob stressed to go directly to the Support/Resistance training which I have started but not yet completed.
I'm guessing that initially I'll be going over a lot of the videos and PDF lessons keeping an open mind on the content that is presented.
An exciting feature of the 1 on 1 training is group trading. Rob will partner me up with a group of 4-5 other traders in the world and together, you will determine setup opportunities. Together we will trade a demo account. He just asked me what hours I could trade so he can partner me up with a group that can cover the entire 24 hours of trading action. I can share more with you when I know more.
1 question I asked Rob was how he found the time to trade while he was working full-time. His answer? It was brutal because he was waking up at 2am to 3am every day for a long time to trade. (No pain, no gain) I'm trying to figure out when I'm going to dedicate time to trading during the 2am-11am EST time frame. Rob states that getting up to trade at 4am EST will give me many trading opportunities.
Rob is currently working to help me develop a trading strategy and I've made it known to him what I'm interested in (technical indicators.) He should have some concrete rules that I can tune in a couple of days.
I've received a lot of responses from you with praises of good luck and curiousity. Thanks for the thoughts. I feel that this training will not only be beneficial for me but also for all of you. It has already single handedly increased my motivation and confidence and if I can be successful after training, some of you may decide to go that route also. I will try hard to give daily updates on my progress.
Popularity: 2% [?]
