Items Tagged With long

This is John's Trade Methodology:

HIS ANALYSIS?

Trade Idea:

Long EUR/USD on a bullish candle reversal (1 hour or 2 hour bullish Harami) that fails to sustain a break below 1.2240

Stops below 1.2210

Target 1.2330

Dollar forecast for the next 24hrs: Bearish

Stronger EUR/USD, GBP USD & AUD/USD

Weaker USD/JPY, USD/CHF & USD/CAD

Market Dynamics:

Favored - Cyclical & Regression Models 

At Risk - Trend Models

PFI exited its long EUR/USD trade this morning for 221 pips. For all practical purposes I could have stayed with it given the model bias remains bearish on the dollar.  That said, with a major event risk on the horizon (NFP on Friday) I've decided to stand aside for the balance of the week.

Today's price action will probably look a lot like yesterdays and will remain choppy through the day. This makes the target of the trade idea (1.2330) a tough task in the short term and could push traders into Friday trying to achieve it; which I don't encourage.  1.2240 and 1.2210 are Bollinger Band and ma support levels (different time frames) with 1.2330 bringing in substantial Bollinger Band resistance.

Overall the dollar is finding some support at our lower channel; it would be unusual for the dollar to sustain a push deeper into this region after floating across the top for any length of time. If we don't see a substantial pull-back to a more neutral position tomorrow, I'd almost expect to see NFP come out stronger than expected or an overall muted reaction to poor numbers, which will leave the market in good shape for a technical reversal at the beginning of the week.

Rob Booker for AUD/USD (4-hour chart):

I am considering two trades on this pair:

1. On a break below the redline, I think we can get all the way to the 38% retracement at .7219.  A break of that level should take us as far as .7180.
2. I would really like to see a resumption of the uptrend that we were in before – and this would happen above .7350.  On a break above that level, even to .7365, I like a long trade, stop .7300, target at least .7500.  More on that if the trade opens.

I've been trading the EUR/USD since yesterday evening and caught the breakdown below 1.1855.  The USD has not been able to push below 1.1827 though and until then the price may remain in a 60 pip channel.  

I'm up a little more than $400 to start the week in realized gains but as of now am only in a short EUR/USD position that I entered on a pullback last night.   There haven't been any major developments since the Asian trading session set most currency pairs in motion except for the USD/CAD which has broken down nearly 75 pips from yesterday evening.  I was actually long on a USD/CAD position yesterday and decided to get out after hearing that some favorable economic reports were expected from Canada this morning.  This demonstrates some good behavior on my part with an exit of the position with a $100 loss.  I didn't see the pair doing what I would have expected from my technical analysis and wasn't aware of the economic reports coming out of Canada when I entered the position.  What good would it have been to stay in the position?

Here's a post by Lloyd on his blog at http://tradingforaliving-assess.blogspot.com 

American trader and hypnotherapist Robert Krausz argues that 75% of trading depends on your psychology and claims that hypnosis can be used to control your emotional state to maximise your trading performance.

However, he stresses on the importance of having a trading plan at the first place!

Here are the 5 basic tasks necessary to become a winning trader and my personal takes:

1. Develop an analytical methodology
-- For myself, I read fundamental news and run technical analysis

2. Extract a trading plan from this methodology
-- I set up short-term swing trades (1-3 days), always try to pick good entry and exit prices

3. Formulate rules for this plan including money management
-- Take profits while ahead, find the best place to get out on bad trades, not relying on stop loss

4. Back-test the plan over a long period
-- Start trading small positions and allow mistakes

5. Finally, stick to the plan
-- Having confidence and keep practicing till perfect

By adopting a more flexible currency, China seems to have appeased the U.S. to some extent. But much more has to be done, if all expectations are to be met. But according to China, it is asking for too much too soon.

For quite a long time China had pegged the value of its yuan currency to the U.S. dollar, but since last July it has come out of this fixation. Since then, it has revalued Yuan by 2.1 percent and has moved to a managed float against a basket of currencies. But the U.S. is pressing for more tangible reforms.

According to People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan,

One should gauge China's efforts by looking at a wide series of reforms that it has taken to foster a more robust foreign exchange market, than by just judging  yuan's exchange rate.

Interested in knowing more... Read

I picked up a copy of the March Issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine this weekend.

There is an article that explains the use of candlesticks and moving average crossover as a strategy.  This is yet another setup strategy that I like for its simplicity.  As long as you can chart 2 moving averages and identify candlestick patterns, you can use it. 

The simple idea is that as moving averages crossover, the candlestick that forms during that crossover can be used to identify the possible direction of the market.

You can read a snippet of the article at http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/ForexFocus/FOREXfocus.html

To read the full article, you need to buy the latest issue of Stocks & Commodities.

I've been reading more about the Commitment of Traders Report and how knowing not only non-commercial positions but commercial as well can assist in longer term trades.  For those of you that don't know what the Commitment of Traders report is, let me tell you.

Some of this information was provided with assistance from Alexander Elder's book, "Entries and Exits"

First, the report is really the only way for private traders to get an idea of the volume for each currency pair.  Each week (Wednesday), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases the number of open positions, short positions and long positions in a given commodity.  These positions are given for 3 groups of traders, hedgers, big traders, and small traders.   "Savvy COT analysts compare current positions to historical norms and look for situations where hedgers, or the smart money (big traders) and small traders... are dead set against each other.  If one group is heavily short while the other is heavily long, which one would you like to join?  If you find that in a certain market the smart money is overwhelmingly on one side, while the small spec are mobbing the other, it is time to use technical analysis to look for entries on the side of the hedgers."

Currently, I only provide non-commercial positions or small traders.  You can read more about how to use just this information by going to http://www.forexproject.com/forex_volume

In the upcoming weeks, I am going to start providing data and graphs for all 3 groups of traders.  I just have to put my programming hat on and find the time to do it. 

Over the past few years, the failure of the USD to decline in response to soaring trade deficits has baffled economists, leading some to propose that the only reason the USD has not depreciated is foreigners’ continued willingness to finance the deficits. A new theory, however, is quickly gathering support among economists. It suggests that the common interpretation of current account deficits is unreasonable. Basically, a significant portion of US trade takes place between US companies and their foreign subsidiaries. A change in exchange rates, thus, would not cause much of a change in trade patterns. As a result, a rising current account deficit may not be as large of a problem as has long been argued, as a decline in the USD would not produce a significant drop in the deficit. Reuters reports:

One reason put forward for the growing impotence of currency rates in synching trade accounts is that national trade statistics disguise the real nature of trade flows.

According to a variety of economic indicators, Japan is now the fastest growing economy in the G8 Industrialized countries. Further, it seems Japan has definitively succeeded in ending a decade-long deflationary spiral, during which its nominal GDP declined. Japanese economists have hinted that the Bank of Japan may soon end its ultra-loose monetary policy. This move, which will take the form of higher interest rates, has even received the support of Japanese politicians, who previously seemed ambivalent. While the rate hikes will not occur for a couple of months, currency traders are already beginning to buy Yen based on the prospect of a narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the rest of the developed world.

Read More: Policy hope propels yen’s rally