Items Tagged With loss

Here is a quick lesson from Sam Shenker about moving stops which I'm sure we have all been guilty of.

As a trader one of the lessons I learned the hard way is to never move my stops against the position. One of the most common mistakes made by the novice traders is to move the stop against the position once the trade start going against him or her. As the trade keeps going against the trader and once again approaches the stop, what do most of traders do, they move the stop again, thus increasing an unrealized loss, but unrealized loss is still a loss and a real one at that. In order to become successful, a trader must learn that the initial stop most of the time is a correct stop, because if the stop is triggered it usually means that the trader is on the wrong side of the market and by moving the stop he or she only increases the loss. The reason why traders move stops is hope that the market turns around and goes in the direction of the trade, but hope has no place in the market, protective stops do. Remember:  NEVER MOVE THE STOP AGAINST THE POSITION, BECAUSE BY MOVING STOPS AGAINST YOUR POSITION YOU ONLY INCREASE THE SIZE OF YOUR LOSS.

There is a new poll on the top of the right column of the website.  What was your Profit/Loss this week? Be honest.  I'd be interested as well as others in seeing the results. 

TRADE

Date: Tuesday, February 21st

Entry: Short USD/CHF at 1.3082

Reason for trade/setup: Using the 240-minute chart, there was the presence of a downward trend line above.  In addition, a momentum indicator that I created and am currently testing indicated a short opportunity.  Furthur confirmation was obtained from the 3-period, 5-period Price oscillator using EMA and the continued downward movement of the 8-period, 21-period Price oscillator.  Stochastic crossover and a decreasing rate of change since early February provided double-secret confirmation.

Initial Stop:  1.3121, the high of the entry day.

Initial Target:  1.3050 then 1.2950 which are horizontal support lines.

RESULT 

Exit: 1.3121

Reason for Exit:  Stop Loss triggered

Profit/loss:  -38 pips

Trade executed according to plan? yes

Outcome: After trade entry, the pair had remained close with the downward trend line.  Volatility was non-existent during Asian session.  The USD was bullish going into the European session and the pair went as high as 1.3153 stopping me out of the position between 3 am and 7 am.  This trade never moved in my favor by more than a couple of pips.

Thoughts:  All the indicators in the world can't predict the future.  I seemed to have multiple confirmation, felt great about the trade, yet it didn't turn out well.  I feel good about executing the trade though because I didn't go against my plan.  I saw a possible setup and pulled the trigger.  If I could do it all over again I would make the trade again but may have waited for an increase in volatility.  In addition, I probably set my profit targets too high considering the lack of price action this week.

All I can say is that I had quite a setback today.  I'm writing this as my positions just closed out so I'm really disappointed at my stupidity.   Quite simply, I was trying something new and I got bit.

I was short on a 3 position GBP/USD trade that was profitable most of the European session yet not enough to hit breakeven or profit targets.  Then came the US CPI economic announcement this morning.  I have never felt comfortable being in any position going into an important US announcement and this time was no different.  I took my stop losses off the positions with the thought that I would close manually 1 minute after the announcement if my positions were down.  My reasoning? I wanted to prevent from a false spike taking me out of the positions which had happened many times before only to find out I was right.   If anyone was watching the market, you know what happened.  The price did spike but got pegged GBP bullish, the complete opposite of my positions.  I didn't even have time to close out my positions in a timely manner.  I painfully closed all 3 positions at a 75 pip loss each which was 2 1/2 times greater than my normal stop.  

This trade hurts for many reasons:

1. I went from being profitable by 129 pips in December to -96 pips in December
2. Went against my own good judgment
3. I was very patient all week and lost it in a minute
4. Not only does this wipe out my profits for December but also for November and part of October

So you can see how damaging 1 trade can be and it's not even the money that affects me as much as the mental setback.  It's going to take some work to get back to where I was.  

The positives from all of this? I don't foresee ever taking my stop loss off the table again.  Never, ever.  In addition, sometimes I need a big punch in the face to remind me that things like this can happen. 

TRADE

Date: Friday, February 24th

Entry: Short USD/JPY at 117.05

Reason for trade/setup: With a downward trend in motion, I was looking for a swing trade to short the USD/JPY.  I was waiting for price to retrace back up where a minor Asian session breakdown occurred several hours prior at 117.10.  The DMI indicator was used as confirmation that the existing trend was still in place.

Initial Stop:  117.19; the high of previous bar

Initial Target:  116.40

RESULT 

Exit: 116.76

Reason for Exit:  End of day

Profit/loss:  +29 pips/ +$745.10 (3 lots)

Trade executed according to plan? yes

Outcome: This trade entry went exactly according to plan so much so that it surprised me.  The price didn't reach my limit and that didn't surprise me. 

Thoughts:  The market doesn't generate trades like this everyday and this setup would only apply to trending markets.

I've been trading the EUR/USD since yesterday evening and caught the breakdown below 1.1855.  The USD has not been able to push below 1.1827 though and until then the price may remain in a 60 pip channel.  

I'm up a little more than $400 to start the week in realized gains but as of now am only in a short EUR/USD position that I entered on a pullback last night.   There haven't been any major developments since the Asian trading session set most currency pairs in motion except for the USD/CAD which has broken down nearly 75 pips from yesterday evening.  I was actually long on a USD/CAD position yesterday and decided to get out after hearing that some favorable economic reports were expected from Canada this morning.  This demonstrates some good behavior on my part with an exit of the position with a $100 loss.  I didn't see the pair doing what I would have expected from my technical analysis and wasn't aware of the economic reports coming out of Canada when I entered the position.  What good would it have been to stay in the position?

Thanks to Forex2stay for the following comments.  Visit his blog at http://forex2stay.blogspot.com/

I do think it's possible, but I believe money mangement is the key. This needs to be a marathon not a sprint. One thing I've realized is that you can't use the same lot sizes for all of your trades. For example on one trade you might be risking 30 pips and another 20 pips. So if you trade 4 lots on both of them (standard account) you'd be risking $1,200 on one trade and $800 on the other. That's not good money management and it can get you a person in trouble.Here's what I do.....

When I position trade (4hr and daily charts), I won't trade unless I have a 2:1 risk reward ratio. I figure out the proper stop loss for my trade, based on TA. So for this example say that's 40 pips. I then make sure based on TA that I'm comfortable getting at least 80 - 120 pips profit. Once i'm comfortable I put my information into the following formula.

S=(E*R) / (P-X)

S = Size of Trade
E = Account size (Cash)
R = Maximum Risk percentage per trade
P = entry price on the trade
X = pre-determined stop loss or exit price

So let's put in some numbers.....

My account size $10, 000
Entry price on EUR/USD 1.2600
Currently I'll risk 3% of my account on a trade
My pre-determined SL is 1.2560

So how many shares of EUR can we buy with our money management rules??

S=($10,000 * 3%) / (1.2600 - 1.2560)
S = $300 / .40
S= 75,000

Anyway this is the way I do it. I hope it helps...

Forex2stay

Here's a posting by Troy Peterson (private trader) titled, "Do you have confidence as a trader?."

Your level of confidence as a trader will have a huge positive impact on your success. The more confident you are the less time you will spend on second guessing your decisions. The more confident you are the more positive energy you will focus toward your desired outcome.

Confidence is based on two things; what you do and who you are. When a trade stops for a loss your confidence becomes rattled. This is because confidence is based on what you do. When confidence is based on who you are and your ability as a trader, one who is prepared for all outcomes whether a loss or a profit, then you are consistent with yourself no matter what the result. You will feel confident because you took the loss as intended or because you closed with a profit. You will choose correctly in either scenario! This is because confidence is based on you.

Each time you correctly make a decision in trading whether it is for a loss or gain, the more confident you will become with your ability to act accordingly to the current market situation in a manner that is appropriate. Your confidence is now based on your awareness as a trader (you) not on failures, mistakes or missed opportunities. Let me say that again . . . Your confidence is now based on your awareness as a trader, one who will make the correct decisions.

Help build confidence by reviewing your trades diligently to discover when, why and how you chose to act during the time of the trade. It will help your understanding of the markets and yourself. The more you choose to learn from each trade failure and success the stronger and more confident you will become. This confidence will increase your flexibility in your decisions and your behavior. This flexibility will help create comfort in your trading. This comfort will feed your confidence and the cycle continues.

Begin working on your confidence today. Believe in yourself and have faith in your abilities. Please don't fall prey to falling someone else's calls in the market blindly. Stick to your edge and realize that trading the markets is about you.

The Australian dollar saw its biggest loss in three months on concern the nation’s high interest rates will soon fail to attract investors. Borrowing costs are climbing around the world. The currency lost 1.5 percent this week as interest rates in Australia stayed at 5.5 percent. The US Fed is expected to increase interest rates a few more times this year.

The Bank of Japan has indicated it might also soon start increasing rates. These developments are likely to keep the Australian dollar low for some more time. A report indicating increased employment had helped the currency earlier this week. But that trend has been short-lived.

Yen Trade

I decided to trade the Asian session and shorted the USD/JPY.  I was just stopped out at 0 profit/loss. 

I shorted the pair on a break of the support trendline and a break of RSI trendline.  It was good entry execution.  I waited for the price to break the trendline and then waited for the 15 minute candle to close.  After I was up 20 pips, I moved my stop to break even at 111.52.  My limit was still 111.05, right above a lower support line.  The trade was up as much as 28 pips where I typically would have closed the position.  Tonight, I wanted to show a little restraint and patience so I waited.  The pair never made it back down before stopping me out for a scratch.  

Should I have taken the 28 pip profit? Would you have?