Different Kind of Game

It's just unbelievable how the tidbits of information out there on the internet can sometimes be so useful.  I was reading Lloyd's blog and his short post today really was insightful.  He stated that this is a "fundamental" week due to the plethora of economic releases.  Because of this, he believes that the trading environment created is beneficial to both position traders and scalpers.  He is not good at following trends or scalping and is mainly a momentum trader who likes to trade the short-term breakout.  

Maybe I find this so insightful because this is exactly the type of trader I am.   I think reading this just threw this fact into my face.  I feel pretty lost when the markets are in a trending environment.  I have no idea when to get on and when I do get on, I usually get caught in the minor retrace and stopped out.  This happened to me this morning.  

http://tradingforaliving-assess.blogspot.com 

Popularity: 2%

The Best Traders on Oanda Forums

I know it isn't easy to define who are the best forex traders because really, you only know how good you are.  Knowing this, I posted to the Oanda forum asking the more informed and experienced users who the most "successful" or experienced traders were.  

www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboard/ultimatebb.cgi

I received a response with traders whose member names were
~chaffcombe , blueingreen, oldhand, craigatk, altman, Airoekhion, and danielgsx.  I wanted this information because I really want to concentrate on reading posts by them with the hope of learning more.

The post that caught my eye asked the question, "Right tools for trends and ranges?"  The post is located here: http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboard/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=15;t=004808;p=1

There are a lot of recommendations but I was watching what oldhand had to say:

While I agree with the "eyeball" indicator, I'd have to disagree about
the value of "indicators" taken by many. For example, s/r lines,
whether horizontal or angled are probably used by all traders to
greater or lesser degree and they are just as much "indicators" as
MACD/RSI/CCI etc. Trend lines and channels in my experience being the
strongest of all devices to suggest high probability directional clues.
What about moving averages? The 100/200 SMAs in virtually all time
frames are a must for any trader to track. The 200 SMA especially on
weeklies and dailies is a must and to ignore such an indicator or be
oblivious to it is guaranteed to lead to mis-steps on trades. Not
knowing Fib levels for your price analysis is likewise operating with
one eye closed.

Whether
"indicators" inform about some objective underlying reality about price
patterns or simply are self-fullfilling reations of various trading
segments is a question that can never be answered one way or another.
But, the fact that the majority of traders rely upon the variety of
indicators to make decisions is not in doubt. Your best trades are
always going to be when a variety of indicators, whether moving
averages, Fib levels, trend lines etc all line up at certain points and
within different time frames. For example, if you see price touch a
channel line on the daily and let's say the 3 hour, and RSI is in over
sold/bought territory, and a Fib level is at the same point, and MACD
or Momemtum paint a divergence, price is going to react in a major way
and predictably. Why? Simple really. The different trader segments,
some weekly or daily players relying lets say on channel lines, and
another segment relying on Fib levels, and another on RSI levels and so
on, are going to all react at that point causing a counter price
movement. How far price will move is very difficult to predict but
direction is not.

So, I'd say a study and attention to indicators is a must for any trader and well worth the effort.

Popularity: 32%

May 2nd NY Session #2

Funny how I was able to squeeze out a 11 pip profit on a trade that was absolutely discretionary.  I was watching the GBP/USD and it was highly overvalued on the short-term charts with solid resistance at 1.8400.  Even though the pair had reached a new high today, the MACD histogram failed to reach new highs (negative divergence on the 5 minute, not shown below).  The I shorted the pair at 1.8380 with a stop 30 pips above at 1.8410.  Once the pair ran up 15 pips, I set my stop to breakeven.  It ran up as high as 26 pips but started losing momentum.  I was watching for an exit on the 5 minute charts and once I noticed momentum and inertia decreasing, I exited.

15 minute chart below: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Popularity: 5%

Free Raghee Horner Webinars This Weekend

Raghee Horner announced today that she will have 2 webinars this weekend.  The first is called "Setting Up Your Entries with Advanced GET Charts."  This webinar allows you to watch as Raghee walks you through the three type of entries she uses. The second is "Master Order Execution with Raghee Horner" with a description as follows:

Raghee will share her entry techniques using eSignal's Advanced GET charts
which attendees of this FREE WEBINAR can get free through TradeDirectFX*.
Advanced GET charts will allow you to set up the Wave, draw trendlines, support,
and resistance as well as use all the Fibonacci retracement and extension levels she uses every day. 
See set ups of momentum trades, swing trades, as well as Raghee's Wave/CCI
trade and learn specifically when to use each.

Both webinars are this Saturday, the first at 1 p.m. EST and the second at 4 p.m. EST and are FREE. I've been to her previous 4 webinars and found them all very beneficial if not for her commentary also for the contacts you meet in the room.  

I've already registered for these 2 events.  I would recommend you do the same.

Click Read More to see the attached email with register details. 

[Read more]

Popularity: 4%

Momentum Divergence in the EUR/JPY

An observation from Learn::Forex that may pique your interest.

Euro/JPY has our attention…

Why? 

Notice
on a Daily chart we are attempting to push up into the zone of 145.00
although the momentum is clearly beginning to fall off. This is again
confirmed with the 120 minute chart as well. This combine with the
resistance area we are looking for a short opportunity anywhere from
current price up to a retest of the 144.80/145.00 zone. Targets on the
short side are 143.00 and if we get a clear break of 143.00 we could
have a second target of 142.00. We would look to place a stop up above
the 145.00 level.

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Popularity: 5%

Learn:Forex Exclusive Analysis

Learn::Forex provides exclusive content for members of FXCM.  I find that out of all Guest Trading Ideas they have "keeping it simple" analysis that you have to respect.  Others have analysis that from day to day is not consistent and analysis that also can be contrued as more of an art.  (easily interpreted differently from 1 person to another)

Here is Learn::Forex's Analysis today.  See for yourself.

AUD/JPY April 12th, 2006

The pairing that has caught our attention this week is the AUD/JPY.

First lets take a look at the Daily. Two things that stand out.First, notice that we have TWO different fib pulls that are coming together and have for resistance. And second, look at the momentum.it is appearing to weaken.

Then on the 240 minute chart we find confirmation of the price action losing momentum and we also get a nice trend line to use. In SHORT there seems to be an opportunity here.anywhere from current market price all the way back to re-test the trend line and resistance zone of 87.00

We have some support at the 85.50 area with more major support coming in at 85.00 which also happens to line up with a .382 retracement fib. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Popularity: 6%

TTM Squeeze Indicator Update

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I've received many requests for my version of the TTM Squeeze Indicator. I can't technically call it the TTM Squeeze Indicator because it doesn't have the exact functionality as the indicator that costs $300+.  Specifically, the difference isn't with the actual squeeze indication because that is exact.  The difference is with the corresponding momentum histogram.  While my momentum histogram provides the same trading direction as the TTM proprietary Squeeze indicator (bullish or bearish), it may not provide the smoothing characteristics that seem inherent in their momentum histogram.   So my indicator will provide you with the exact functionality as the TTM Squeeze Indicator for SQUEEZE indication and entry direction.  What it won't provide exactly is momentum change for exit.  They recommend that you exit when the momentum oscillator starts weakening.  I would recommend the same but I cannot say for sure that their momentum oscillator is any better than using the MACD or Momentum indicators for exit.  From my experience, it is best whether your using the TTM or my squeeze indicator to get additional confirmation for exit.  

Either way I find this indicator to be great for showing an "explosion" of volatility and even though you can create this indicator yourself using Bollinger Bands, Keltner or Donchian channels, and a momentum indicator, it just doesn't compare to having a nicely formatted custom indicator with colored dots. 

The real reason for this post was to let everyone interested in this indicator to give me a little more time to release the newest version of it.  Right now I'm providing the FP Squeeze Indicator (Forex Project Squeeze Indicator) version 0.1.  After I've completed version 1.0, it will more closely emulate the TTM indicator, most likely as close as it possibly could.  The only way I can see it emulating the TTM indicator closer is if John or Hubert from TTM reveal more about their momentum oscillator.  

Currently I only provide a version for esignal but I'm thinking about providing it for MetaTrader also.  I've received requests for Tradestation but unfortunately I don't use Tradestation so I don't have any way of programming it on this platform.  

Look for the newest version next week.  If you want me to notify you when it's complete, drop me an email and I'll add you to the list.

Popularity: 7%

Eliminating Five Basic Mistakes

There was a webinar titled, "Eliminating Five Basic Mistakes from your Analysis" this week presented by Ian Copsey.  I found this webinar and the corresponding Powerpoint presentation very useful because I have been guilty of these mistakes.  Before I summarize and attach the powerpoint presentation (I also converted it to PDF), who is Ian Copsey??

According to the moderator, Ian Copsey is one of the foremost FX technical analysts in the world,
with over 20 years experience in financial markets. He began his career
in Barclays Bank’s FX trading room in 1982 then moved to head their FX
sales desk in Hong Kong in 1988 where he spent almost 5 years.

Either way the guy has got experience and that's what counts.  

So what are the 5 basic mistakes and also the verdict of whether I'm guilty or not of making such a mistake? 

1. Trend Line Drawing Mistakes  Verdict: GUILTY
• Use 3 touch guideline.  By waiting for 3 touches, the trendline becomes stronger and more reliable 
2. Double Tops and Double Bottoms  Verdict: GUILTY
• WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION which comes on break of peak or trough
3. Head and Shoulders  Verdict: GUILTY
• Wait for Completion of pattern
4. Momentum Indicators  Verdict: mistrial
   
• Momentum studies are not meant to be used in trending markets
• Use ADX/DMI to determine trend then use 2 other methods to determine better trading opportunities
1. More sensitive version of RSI
2. Breaks of momentum trend lines
• After a trend, when should momentum indicators be used?
• When there is a divergence
• a divergence is not a reversal signal and trades should not be based on the fact the divergence has occurred.  Look for other signals such as:
1. A break of trend line
2. break of a pattern
3. break of sequence of high and lows
5. Confirm your analysis  Verdict: GUILTY
• What kind of complementary techniques are available?
1. momentum - used in consolidation and divergence after trends
2. trend line breaks
3. fibonacci projections from elliott wave
4. pattern breaks
5. time cycles

The PDF or powerpoint presentation is really worth the quick 15 minute read.

 eliminating 5 common trading mistakes 08/04/2006,11:23 952.99 Kb

 Eliminating Five Basic Mistakes 08/04/2006,11:31 1.17 Mb

Popularity: 4%

Learn:Forex Exclusive Guest Idea

EUR/CAD – April 6th, 2006

 

Our attention is looking away from the USD based pairs with the NFP report due out Friday.

 

Notice the EUR/CAD has been on a month long uptrend with one
correction. We feel it is due for another minor correction. Why? There
are a few things pointing in this direction. First, the candle pattern
(a shooting star). Second, notice the high of the wick yesterday
attempted to test the .618 fib. Fourth, the resistance in this area.
And finally look at the momentum indicator at the bottom…divergence is
forming.

 

 

 

 

 

Popularity: 3%

Weekend Reading - Keeping an eye on Momentum

Keep An Eye On Momentum

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/MomentumMACD.asp

This article states the obvious yet brings up a simple setup that I never thought about.  The basic premise is that momentum precedes price.  Any momentum indicator can be used but this article uses MACD as an example.

1.    Define a MACD segment.  Segment #1 below.

 

 

 

 

2.    Measure the highest bar of segment #1.  In the above case, the highest bar was .004.

3.    Wait until the next segment forms; segment #2 above.  If a bar from segment #2 falls below -.004, downward momentum has exceeded previous upward momentum.
Segment #2 consists of 10 bars.  The values are in order from left to right (-.001, -.004, -.006, -.007, -.008, -.008, -.008, -.006, -.002, -.0008)

The third bar from the left is -.006, showing greater momentum than during anytime in segment #1. Sell at the close of this bar (price=1.7579.)  Exit the position at your discretion but a good time to do so might be when momentum slows.  Momentum stalls 2 consecutive bars at bar #7.  MACD value is -.008.  Exit at the close of this bar (price=1.7381)

The profit is close to 200 pips.  Like every other setup, this will not always be successful and should be used in conjunction with other confirmation tools. 

What I like most about this setup is its simplicity.

Popularity: 3%

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