The Bad News About Forex Automated Trading

I’ve read a lot about how automated forex trading systems just don’t work in the long run but I can’t conclude this from personal experience. I’ve never seriously traded forex using automation. The following is an email from a trader who can conclude this from his experience. I found it totally worth sharing.

I came across your blog this afternoon whilst casually surfing the various forums in lieu of watching rubbish on TV.

I find your search for trading success an interesting one as in many respects it mirrors my own experience in many ways.

I spent well over two years, pretty much full time, searching for automated solutions to trading, having been in the process automation business for 25 years. To summarise, I have concluded it is a futile exercise with the technologies currently open to the average retail trader. I have yet to find any expert that is reliable enough to be left trading on its own and have pretty much concluded that most are really curve fitting solutions. I have seen no strategies posted anywhere that are consistent or reliable and capable of being automated without significant risk. I see some that pertain to be profitable (Artemis would be an example) but it needs constant adjustment and tuning which makes it akin to semi automation, not full automation.

However, there are manual strategies that are available that are profitable; they just do not lend themselves to automation due to the ability of the human braoin to make decisons based on proce movement that are pretty much impossible for any expert to make. So I abandoned my search for full automation solutions a year ago and concluded semi - automation was probably the right route. I trade manually today, with a few automated aids.

Linked with that, money management and certainly trading psychology are massive keys to success, the first to ensure you are alive to trade tomorrow and the latter because it takes time to get your mental state right to be able to trade at all, and that is what takes the time Rich. Sure, you need to understand the basics of trading, but without the right mental state, you’ll never be consistently profitable.

Your target of 50% per annum is achievable so keep up your search.

Popularity: 87%

Does Your Forex Trading Plan Encourage You To Overtrade?

Welcome Ryan, the author of this Forex Project guest post. Ryan trades from a quiet country lake house and helps traders through his blog at http://www.ryanokeefe.com.

Does your trading plan encourage you to over trade?

Recently I started a survey on my website asking traders to answer this question:

“What is holding you back from trading successfully?”

Currently the number one answer is “I make some money, and then I give it all back.”

Multiple factors contribute to this result however over trading is the most frequent concern struggling traders email me with. I have some thoughts to avoid over trading I hope you’ll find useful.

Consider Your Trading Plan

Over trading may be baked into your trading plan without you realizing it. I received an email from a concerned trader who struggled with taking too many trades although they were following their trading plan. I asked to look at their trading plan and found it was built around the 60 minute chart, the opening of each trading session, support and resistance levels plus the MACD indicator. How many opportunities do you think their trading plan generated on a daily or weekly basis?

I’m a big fan of slowing things down with longer time frames. Using a longer time frame automatically reduces the number of trades you will consider which reduces your trading plan’s built in propensity for over trading. You won’t be tempted to take a “valid signal” 10 times a day trading a daily chart. The vast majority of my trades are planned on the daily chart with the entry taken on a four hour chart.

Consider a Weekly Goal

In my trading plan I have a weekly goal of 50 to 100 points. This is a realistic goal for me to achieve and having the number written down reminds me that once I’ve made my weekly goal there is no reason to place it at risk. When the goal is achieved it is time to do anything other than trade. If you’re trading a lower time frame I think setting a weekly goal is even more critical because as we have discussed, shorter time frames offer more “trading opportunities” which place your profit at risk. I’ve had this weekly goal established for years and it works well against over trading.

Some traders may think a goal of 50 to 100 points a week is too low but keep in mind there are as many ways to configure a trading account as there are ways to trade it. With the right mix of leverage, lot size and risk capital you can do a lot with a goal of 400 points a month. Most important is to set your goal according to your personality; whatever you believe you can achieve and doesn’t stress you out in the process is best.

Do you really need to take that trade?

Before I open a trade I ask myself this question every time without fail. It seems obvious but so is lowering the landing gear before landing yet some pilots still manage to land with the gear up. Consider your emotions before you take a trade. Are you tired? Are you angry? Did you miss a good trade and now desperate to make some pips? Have you made your weekly or monthly goals? If you have met your goals you don’t need to trade, period. If you can honestly answer this question with a “yes” then pull the trigger but if not, don’t put your capital at risk.

Be accountable to somebody other than yourself.

Rob Booker pitched this idea in a presentation I watched online and I believe it is the strongest action you can take to eliminate any propensity you have to over trade. Whoever you report to should have a basic understanding of your trading plan and be able to question you on each trade in a constructive setting. This is a full disclosure exercise so find somebody you can trust.

I report to my Wife every Friday morning with a print out of our account statement. We go through every trade while I explain what system I used, why I took the trade, what mistakes I made and what I could do better next time. We also discuss what I should be doing during the upcoming week if goals are already exceeded.

If knowing you need to explain why you put hard earned profit at risk for an unnecessary trade at the end of the week can’t keep you from pulling the trigger, nothing will.

Popularity: 75%

Forex Calculators

To be profitable in Forex, you must concentrate on money management.

First use the Forex Position Size Calculator to determine your position size.

Then use this value in the Forex Risk Calculator to determine leverage, possible pip profit or loss, profit at target or loss at stop, reward/risk, percentage reward or percentage at risk.

Popularity: 2%