I’ve absolutely no idea how some people can trade without first backtesting, however that’s just the way I’m wired!   …

Check out his website.  He tracks multiple trading systems that he developed and basically trades on autopilot.  http://users.bigpond.com/morleym/index.htm 

Out of the 3 systems I’ve used for backtesting, I really think that amibroker is the best and it’s the cheapest.  Here are the pros and cons I’ve noticed for each:

Esignal

Pros:  Nice reports and graphs post-backtest; the ability to backtest already written custom indicators with minor modifications

Cons: Expensive; no ability for optimization  

Metastock

Pros:  Full featured suite of already made trading systems
Cons: I found the entire product very confusing and I’m a programmer; Expensive

Amibroker 

Pros: Intuitive user interface; fast; ability to optimize backtesting
Cons: they don’t provide data so you need to download free data or use your currency provider (esignal plugin) 

The most important backtesting functionality is the ability to optimize your trading systems.  For example, what if you wanted to backtest a moving average crossover.  With esignal, you would have to manually change the moving average periods you want to test which would require an individual backtest for each moving average pair.  With amibroker or metastock, you can use variables and have the program go through an entire range of moving averages all in one shot.  It really is a powerful feature.

I’m using amibroker now and I don’t see how I would ever use anything else.  In addition the full version was only about $250. 

Popularity: 4%

Steve Shenker’s Trading Corner

It's actually Sam Shenker's Trading Corner and it can be found here:

http://www.forexproject.com/Blog/Investing_and_Trading/Original_Traders_Corner/

Popularity: 2%

Week 14 Performance

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, this week was especially hard on me.  I lost $3000 to drop my 14 week earnings to +2500.  There are a couple of major adjustments I’m going to make going into week 15.

1.    Finish a preliminary test plan that at least details 1 trade setup

2.    Stop trading multiple currency pairs.  I’ve been trading and trying to study about 8 different currency pairs.  I feel like this is definately too much for me to handle and most would not recommend a beginner to do this.  I will try to study and trade the EUR/USD ONLY since it is considered to have the most volume.  I will slowly try to incorporate some more of the major pairs into my trading plan as I get more comfortable with the EUR/USD.

3.    Back test, back test, back test.  A couple of months ago I was really interested in back testing trading strategies but lost interest after several attempts proved to be very unprofitable.  I have since started using Metastock with esignal to backtest moving averages.  Metastock has an optimizer function that will go through all combinations of moving averages and return the most profitable combinations.  My goal will be to first to find the most profitable moving averages for the EUR/USD.  I will try to correlate the moving average pairs to produce the most profitable 3 moving averages. 

I’ve already started performing #3 and I currently have Metastock performing backtesting on over a years worth of 1 hour interval data.  It’s very CPU intensive and will take about 4 hours.  It’s currently half way done and so far the best EMA pair is the 7/75.  The 7/75 EMA’s actually have some impressive results over the last year on the 1 hour EUR/USD chart. 

Here is an exact description of the backtest:

Buys/sells when a moving average of 7 periods goes above/below a moving average of  75 periods. 

I also have it factoring in the broker fee and have set the results to buy/sell 1 lot.

Here are the results:

70 profitable trades with average profit of $355.86 per trade.
Highest profit was $1020 and the most consecutive profitable trades was 12 

15 unprofitable trades with average loss of $972.67 per trade.
Highest loss was $2180 and the most consecutive losing trades was only 2 

Over 1 year, if you followed this trading plan by buying or selling 1 lot each trade, you would have profited $10320.00. 

Popularity: 3%

Don’t Move Your Stops

Here is a quick lesson from Sam Shenker about moving stops which I’m sure we have all been guilty of.

As a trader one of the lessons I learned the hard way is to never move my stops against the position. One of the most common mistakes made by the novice traders is to move the stop against the position once the trade start going against him or her. As the trade keeps going against the trader and once again approaches the stop, what do most of traders do, they move the stop again, thus increasing an unrealized loss, but unrealized loss is still a loss and a real one at that. In order to become successful, a trader must learn that the initial stop most of the time is a correct stop, because if the stop is triggered it usually means that the trader is on the wrong side of the market and by moving the stop he or she only increases the loss. The reason why traders move stops is hope that the market turns around and goes in the direction of the trade, but hope has no place in the market, protective stops do. Remember:  NEVER MOVE THE STOP AGAINST THE POSITION, BECAUSE BY MOVING STOPS AGAINST YOUR POSITION YOU ONLY INCREASE THE SIZE OF YOUR LOSS.

Popularity: 4%

A Forex Trader Speaks His Mind

I’m posting an email I received from a fellow participant of Raghee Horner’s webinars today.  He has been utilizing Raghee’s methods for the last year and goes into the successes and failures he has had with them.  Keep in mind that he is a beaten down trader who started out with $30,000 and now has $3000 left.  I don’t necessarily agree with everything he says.  I don’t think because 1 person is unsuccessful at something that no one else has a shot.  One of his final sentences is "Do not think you’re going to realize your dreams by day trading."  I don’t believe this and won’t believe this.  I feel like his story will be beneficial:

I would say her setups happen quite a bit if you scan all the pairs. I am not good at position trading or sitting on trades, so I found it really hard to utilize the large time frames. I like to be in and out, a day trader. Her system is like any system, it gives you a method for entries and exits. Each entry has 50% chance of moving in your direction and her method gives you a slight edge or helps you gain a higher probability of being on the winning side. No trading system is consistently profitable, your either on the winning side or your not. The key is to get in when your system tells you to, act on your systems signals, utilize stops or get out as soon as the trade tells you it’s not going in your direction.

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Popularity: 4%

March Issue of Stocks & Commodities

I picked up a copy of the March Issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine this weekend.

There is an article that explains the use of candlesticks and moving average crossover as a strategy.  This is yet another setup strategy that I like for its simplicity.  As long as you can chart 2 moving averages and identify candlestick patterns, you can use it. 

The simple idea is that as moving averages crossover, the candlestick that forms during that crossover can be used to identify the possible direction of the market.

You can read a snippet of the article at http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/ForexFocus/FOREXfocus.html

To read the full article, you need to buy the latest issue of Stocks & Commodities.

Popularity: 3%