Items Tagged With reversal

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The pair closed above the channel top.  I am very bullish on this pair right now.  The channel is about 500 pips wide, and that means that I am looking for a move above the channel of 500 pips, give or take 50.  The pair broke above the channel at 205.20-30 or so, and that means we are targeting 210.00 for the profit target.

I took the first part of this trade with a small lot size (a fraction of my regular trade size) so that I could safely place my stop back inside the channel at 203.60.  This means that I have plenty of room for the pair to bounce around.

This trade is not risk free!  Even though it seems to be on a trip upward, we could see a sudden reversal in this pair.  Do not ever risk a substantial portion of your account on 1 trade or set of trades.  Make sure you limit your risk on wide stopped trades by reducing your trade size.

I love this online magazine.  There isn't anywhere else you can go to read a full-length magazine exclusively on Forex Trading.  In addition, the content is all exclusive and hasn't been seen anywhere else.  The April issue was just released 4 hours ago and contains the following top stories and more:

1. Battle of the Bucks (US Dollar vs. Canadian Dollar)
2. Top Forex Traders of 2005
3. Hedging Overseas Investments with the Dollar Index
4. Candlestick Reversal Patterns
5. Understanding Forex Supply and Demand
   

Content Removed: Download from http://www.currencytradermag.com

There was a webinar titled, "Eliminating Five Basic Mistakes from your Analysis" this week presented by Ian Copsey.  I found this webinar and the corresponding Powerpoint presentation very useful because I have been guilty of these mistakes.  Before I summarize and attach the powerpoint presentation (I also converted it to PDF), who is Ian Copsey??

According to the moderator, Ian Copsey is one of the foremost FX technical analysts in the world, with over 20 years experience in financial markets. He began his career in Barclays Bank’s FX trading room in 1982 then moved to head their FX sales desk in Hong Kong in 1988 where he spent almost 5 years.

Either way the guy has got experience and that's what counts.  

So what are the 5 basic mistakes and also the verdict of whether I'm guilty or not of making such a mistake? 

1. Trend Line Drawing Mistakes  Verdict: GUILTY
   
• Use 3 touch guideline.  By waiting for 3 touches, the trendline becomes stronger and more reliable 
2. Double Tops and Double Bottoms  Verdict: GUILTY
• WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION which comes on break of peak or trough
3. Head and Shoulders  Verdict: GUILTY
• Wait for Completion of pattern
4. Momentum Indicators  Verdict: mistrial
   
• Momentum studies are not meant to be used in trending markets
• Use ADX/DMI to determine trend then use 2 other methods to determine better trading opportunities
1. More sensitive version of RSI
2. Breaks of momentum trend lines
• After a trend, when should momentum indicators be used?
• When there is a divergence
• a divergence is not a reversal signal and trades should not be based on the fact the divergence has occurred.  Look for other signals such as:
  
1. A break of trend line
2. break of a pattern
3. break of sequence of high and lows
   
5. Confirm your analysis  Verdict: GUILTY
• What kind of complementary techniques are available?
1. momentum - used in consolidation and divergence after trends
2. trend line breaks
3. fibonacci projections from elliott wave
4. pattern breaks
5. time cycles

The PDF or powerpoint presentation is really worth the quick 15 minute read.

 eliminating 5 common trading mistakes 08/04/2006,11:23 952.99 Kb

 Eliminating Five Basic Mistakes 08/04/2006,11:31 1.17 Mb

I still have two short GBP/USD and EUR/USD positions from last week that were opened due to signals that my Dooku trading system generated.  The market hasn't been doing much since then yet I'm sitting on an unrealized profit of $500. 

Yesterday I stated that my trading system had a profit target of 225 pips and a stop loss of 75 pips.  Though these are the stops and limits I place on each trade, my trading system can generate reversal signals that prevent my profit target from ever being hit.   The most I can lose on any given trade is 75 pips.  Generally if the trade moves at least 50 pips in my direction, I'm usually guaranteed that I will profit from at least these 50 pips.  It's when it moves above this when I have a chance of realizing the 225 pip profit target as long as my trading system doesn't generate a reversal signal.  In backtesting, my maximum profit target was not hit as often as my maximum stop loss but forward testing should give me more insight on how this trading system will perform in the long run.

I've been busy trying to import 5 years worth of intraday data into Amibroker for backtesting.  I know I was talking up Amibroker like it was the greatest thing since sliced bread but 1 drawdown is the fact that they use flat files for historical data as opposed to an optimized database.  What this means is that as more and more data is added, the slower and slower it is to import.  I figured the import of 5 years of 1 minute data for 10 currency pairs will take about 2 days for a single cpu pc at 100% utilization.  Unfortunately I don't have a dual-cpu or dual core system right now though I'm very tempted to buy one.