Week 17 Performances

I jumped back into the market this past week and made 2 losing trades.  I lost a total of $539.50.  It seems like the losing will never end.   I'm not discouraged and I'm looking forward to another trading week.  The weather has been beautiful in New York this weekend so I've been outside and will try to remain outside for the remainder of it.  I'll try to do a little studying this evening for potential setups during the Asian session today or the US session in the morning.

I figure this may be a good time to mention a new website I'm developing to complement "The Forex Project." The new site is called Forex Care and it will consist of ratings and reviews of all Forex products.  There are no reviews as of yet but I'm just starting to get organized and hopeful will complete 1 in the next couple of days.  I don't want to just start adding reviews quickly without being as thorough as possible.  I've found out for myself and have heard from some of you that it is so hard to find forex related products (websites, books, trading signals, software, etc) that aren't just flat out garbage.  Here's my first post of http://www.forexcare.com that explains a little more.

What is this website all about? 

Quite
simply, I've seen for myself and have also heard from many visitors how
hard it is to disseminate useful forex information on the web from just
plain garbage.  This is the big reason for starting the Forex Care
website.  What this website will attempt to do is provide a repository
of Forex Ratings and Reviews of the following:

• Forex Brokers
• Forex Software
• Forex Trading Rooms
• Forex Signal Services
• Forex Books and Magazines
• Forex Websites

These are the main categories that come to mind but I'm sure there will be many more added in the upcoming months. 

Who performs these reviews?

Me and hopefully others in the future.

Why are you qualified to perform this?

There are a couple of reasons.

1. I'm
   relatively new to Forex and have been trading Forex for about 6
   months.  This means that I'm still in the exploration phase and
   therefore will be exposed to many forex products.
2. I run another website called, The Forex Project and doing so exposes me to a lot of your comments and recommendations.
3. Because I am going to take the time to effort to perform the ratings and reviews without prejudice.

I'm
hoping that I can start to build a ratings and reviews inventory pretty
quickly.  Keep your eye on this website for new content daily.

Popularity: 2%

Eliminating Five Basic Mistakes

There was a webinar titled, "Eliminating Five Basic Mistakes from your Analysis" this week presented by Ian Copsey.  I found this webinar and the corresponding Powerpoint presentation very useful because I have been guilty of these mistakes.  Before I summarize and attach the powerpoint presentation (I also converted it to PDF), who is Ian Copsey??

According to the moderator, Ian Copsey is one of the foremost FX technical analysts in the world,
with over 20 years experience in financial markets. He began his career
in Barclays Bank’s FX trading room in 1982 then moved to head their FX
sales desk in Hong Kong in 1988 where he spent almost 5 years.

Either way the guy has got experience and that's what counts.  

So what are the 5 basic mistakes and also the verdict of whether I'm guilty or not of making such a mistake? 

1. Trend Line Drawing Mistakes  Verdict: GUILTY
• Use 3 touch guideline.  By waiting for 3 touches, the trendline becomes stronger and more reliable 
2. Double Tops and Double Bottoms  Verdict: GUILTY
• WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION which comes on break of peak or trough
3. Head and Shoulders  Verdict: GUILTY
• Wait for Completion of pattern
4. Momentum Indicators  Verdict: mistrial
   
• Momentum studies are not meant to be used in trending markets
• Use ADX/DMI to determine trend then use 2 other methods to determine better trading opportunities
1. More sensitive version of RSI
2. Breaks of momentum trend lines
• After a trend, when should momentum indicators be used?
• When there is a divergence
• a divergence is not a reversal signal and trades should not be based on the fact the divergence has occurred.  Look for other signals such as:
1. A break of trend line
2. break of a pattern
3. break of sequence of high and lows
5. Confirm your analysis  Verdict: GUILTY
• What kind of complementary techniques are available?
1. momentum - used in consolidation and divergence after trends
2. trend line breaks
3. fibonacci projections from elliott wave
4. pattern breaks
5. time cycles

The PDF or powerpoint presentation is really worth the quick 15 minute read.

 eliminating 5 common trading mistakes 08/04/2006,11:23 952.99 Kb

 Eliminating Five Basic Mistakes 08/04/2006,11:31 1.17 Mb

Popularity: 3%

Wave Analysis for Multiple Currency Pairs

The fibo-group submitted their wave analysis to my forex directory yesterday and it’s pretty interesting stuff.  Here’s an example of the commentary and respective chart for the Daily USD/CAD:

The pair reversed sharply, having broken the second critical level. No “Signal line” of the descending “Andrew’s pitchfork” degree Minor is broken. That’s why it is too early to talk about reversal. We see retracement. The depth of the retracement is seen as the “Reaction line 23,6%” of the “Andrew’s pitchfork” degree Intermediate, drawn from the last wave pivots of this wave degree. The pair forms pivot on this “Reaction line” in 80% of all cases.
This suppose is confirmed by the fact that this resistance level is marked by the “Upper signal line” of the descending “Andrew’s pitchfork” degree Minor.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can check it all out at http://www.fibo-group.com/pages/505

Popularity: 3%

Week 15 performance

This week was my 4th straight losing week.  I lost $1220 this week which drops my overall profit over 15 weeks to $1243.  Even though my P/L isn’t looking good as of late, I really am not discouraged.  I have the confidence and determination to continue onward and I have the belief that I will be successful.  I am just going through the stages of learning and if it costs me money to learn, so be it. 

This week I used my first self designed trading system and followed through on every signal it gave me.  Unfortunately it is a range trading system and the EURO had some pretty nice gains against the dollar this week.  Therefore, my trading system did not perform well.  I will continue to use it.  I will stick by my hours upon hours of work. 

Popularity: 2%