Logical Stop Placement

Since I have deemed this week, "Money Management Week", I felt like I should mention a new Investopedia article titled, "A Logical Method of Stop Placement." I'm not overly impressed by the article but you might find it more useful than I did.   The author gives a brief overview of 5 different types of stop methods:

1. Hard stop - placing a stop a predefined number of pips away from the entry price
2. ATR % stop - stop calculated by taking a percentage of the current ATR
3. Multiple day high/low - placing stops at predetermined day's low or high
4. Closes above/below price levels - placing stops above or below specific price levels (ie: double zeros)
5. Indicator stop - stopping out a position based on the value of a certain indicator (RSI, ROC, CCI, etc)

You can read the article in its entirety.

Popularity: 2%

TIC Report and my CAD position

TIC data was released at 9 this morning and it was less than
forecasted.  Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were
$69.8 billion.  The forecast was for 80.2B.  I thought that
this would have been bearish for the dollar but the dollar took off
after the release.  I scratch my head sometimes and wonder why
what I thought would happen didn't.  Either way, I don't care
which direction the price goes because I was waiting for a channel
break either up or down.

The dollar did well overnight and my
long USD/CAD position was up about 70 pips during European session
trading.   Ahead of the NY session and the TIC report release,
some of the dollar gains were given back this morning.  I had
moved up my stop this morning to 1.1143.  I entered at
1.098.  The USD/CAD actually hit the .250 fibonacci at 1.1175 and
then bounced off.  This is where having multiple lots would have
helped.  I was watching  3 fibonacci levels:

.250 = 1.1175           .382=1.1280             .500=1.1374

If
I had entered with 3 lots, I would have placed a stop order at the .250
for the 1st lot and held on to the other 2.  This is all in
hindsight but something I thought about when entering this
position.  Either way, when the prices started consolidating a bit
this morning, I was stopped out at 1.1143 for a profit of 45
pips.  Should I have held on to the position longer? I don't
know.  I didn't want to give back all the gains if the dollar
started to get pounded again.  I figure I can go long again on a
break above the
.250 fib.

Popularity: 5%

Trading the News

Trading the news is something I've been trying to learn since I started Rob Booker "1 on 1" training.  I'm finding that the potential to be profitable doing so is there.  It does take time to learn though and the only way is to gain the actual experience of trading during volatile macroeconomic news reports.  

Today, I traded the news and made 30 pips on 1 trade and lost 30 pips on another.  Unfortunately during these times more than others, the price can swing wildly back and forth so the chances of your stop getting taken out quickly is a strong possibility.  The key is obviously in the entry.  You don't want to jump the gun and enter too quickly but you also don't want to enter too slow.  I entered both positions today at the same time after the close of a 15 minute candle.  These were both valid entries and both swung against me by more than 20 pips.  The Yen swung too far against me and I was stopped out as mentioned previously.  The Sterling swung about 25 pips against me (I had a 30 pip stop) initially and tried for an hour to move back in my direction.  There was a point when my position was even and I could have gotten out of the trade unscathed.  I decided to stay in because I've made the mistake of exiting right before the trade goes my way.  The pair went 20 pips in my favor and I thought again that I should exit.  I waited and waited.  My limit was 30 pips.  The pair was up 28 pips and I still waited.  My target was hit and even though I'm even for the morning, it felt good to have shown a bit of restraint and confidence in my initial entry.  

With that said, I wanted to mention a new article by Boris Sclhossberg that talks about exactly what I'm trying to learn; trading the macroeconomic news.  It's a quick read and worth it if your interested in learning how to trade the news.

http://www.investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/forex/06/ScalpFundamentally.asp

Popularity: 6%

Should have traded when it fell back in channel.

Journal Entry from European Session Monday Morning

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I'm just now entering a journal entry for a trade I made this morning at 4:30 am.   We had a breakout of the upper channel GBP/USD at 4:30 am this morning and I thought we may see a little volatility so I went long at the close of the candle.  As you can see, it was quickly stopped out as the price entered back in the channel.

According to Rob Booker's rules, if the price falls back into and closes back into the channel, you can reverse your trade or place a new trade if you were stopped out.

I was stopped out and should have went short on the GBP/USD once this happened.  I would have had a stop at the bottom of the channel which would have been good for 50 pips or so.  

There's always next time. 

Popularity: 3%

Week 2 Performance

After my 2nd full week of Rob Booker 1 on 1 training, my results have improved from last week, I only lost 153 pips! I'm being sarcastic and once again don't blame anyone for my results this week but myself.  I made 17 trades this week, only profitable on 5.  My average profit per winning trade was 18.8 pips and my average loss per losing trade was 20.58.  Now it isn't unusual for traders to only "win" 5 out of 17 trades but when your risk/reward is only 1:1 like mine, it is difficult.  That is why I find myself questioning Booker's channel trading strategies where most trades only give you the 1:1 risk/reward.  

On an upbeat note, I ended the week on a 2 trade winning streak, my 1st was contrarian and my 2nd was during the jobs report on Friday.  I actually have been quite successful trading the jobs report in the past and it was no exception on Friday.  As I have done in the past, I drew channel lines for the high and low for the previous 12 hours or so.  I placed a buy order 6 pips above the upper channel line with a 20 pip trailing stop.  I placed a sell order 6 pips below the lower channel line with a 20 pip trailing stop.  On Friday, the price broke the upper channel, my buy order was initiated and 15 minutes later was automatically closed when my trailing stop was hit with a profit of 30 pips.  I could have made more if I didn't place a limit but I've never been greedy when it comes to taking profit.  I'm a lot more stupid when placing stops.

Popularity: 6%

May 2nd NY Session #2

Funny how I was able to squeeze out a 11 pip profit on a trade that was absolutely discretionary.  I was watching the GBP/USD and it was highly overvalued on the short-term charts with solid resistance at 1.8400.  Even though the pair had reached a new high today, the MACD histogram failed to reach new highs (negative divergence on the 5 minute, not shown below).  The I shorted the pair at 1.8380 with a stop 30 pips above at 1.8410.  Once the pair ran up 15 pips, I set my stop to breakeven.  It ran up as high as 26 pips but started losing momentum.  I was watching for an exit on the 5 minute charts and once I noticed momentum and inertia decreasing, I exited.

15 minute chart below: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Popularity: 4%

May 2nd NY Session

I'm in short trade right now, USD/JPY at 113.25 with a 30 pip stop.  It's currently down 15 pips.  I just really need a winning trade right now.  I'm not going to do anything stupid though and I'll follow the rules and hopefully I'll come out on top.  

I opened the trade at 8:30 am when we started to get some volatility.  It has since dried up.  There are no major economic releases today.

I'm about to get stopped out.  I have to admit that I'm fighting with myself over the stop.  I want to move it up so bad.  I won't touch it. 

I didn't touch it but I was stopped out.  Wow, I don't know how many trades I've lost in a row.  Since signing on with Rob Booker, I have 1 winning trade and 9 straight losers.   One thing is for certain, I'm great at picking the bottom when I'm shorting.

Trade Details

The red thumbtack is where I went short.  I was stopped out
2 candles later.  I went short after a close below my lower channel. 
The volatility dried up and the squeeze dissipated quickly after 8:30
am.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Popularity: 2%

It’s My Fault

A transcript between a couple of us today:

Wim Says:

Hi Rick,

Minus 180 pips on 3 days of trading seems not that
great. Wow, I would be pissed of, part of learning.. Are mentors really
that great..
Why would you coach someone if you make a ton of money?
I would not spend my time trying to learn somebody for $1000 if I can
make 50K/month with my personal trading.

Some time ago, I
took the FXCM euroshop ($169), well in my eyes, it is worth nothing. it
looks really nice on their website until you pay for it.
3 methods but none of them actually work in my eyes. Everybody can make a course or call himself a mentor.
Personally,
I won't spend a dime to education or learning anymore. Being in this
business for 3 years, I make money now but not the first 2 years.

I
think a combination of knowledge and market understanding is a lot more
worth then pulling up some indicators and following them blindly.

---

Magdalena Says:

Wim,
A couple of questions for you:
1) Are you saying you didnt make money in the first 2 years and are you trading full time?
2) What in your opinion is the best way to learn how to trade and gain the knowledge of the market, how did you do it?

Rich,

What
is the "touch of emotion" and how big of an impact it had on your
trading recently? Are you saying that Rob's methods work and you simply
didn't have enough discipline to stick to them, cuz that's exactly what
happened to me recently when using Raghee's setups.

---

Craig Says:

Hi Rich,

Bummer, I have been making a bunch of losing trades as
well. I was looking though your trade history and trying to figure out
why you made all those AUD/USD trades on the 25th, the pair was going
sideways. Is it possible to elaborate on your current stratergy?

P.S.
Have to say Wim's comment is pretty on the mark.

---

I Said: 

I'm getting my spreadsheet together to analyze these trades but before
I jump over Rob, I have made some mistakes with execution and did so
specifically with my lost GBP trade this morning. I entered incorrectly
and got stopped out by 5 pips before the 100 pip move up. This cost me
huge. Some of the other trades were also executing issues. I can
honestly say that without even analyzing and from the top of my head,
if I was more experienced with this system, I would probably be up. A
lot of his strategy utilized multiple lots so that you can let some
more profit run. I'll post more when I know more.

---

I Said again: 

Magdalena, I think Rob's strategies can work. I think they give you the
best shot at making money doing this. The touch of emotion happened 2
times to me:

The first was with my Aussie trade where I entered
before the candle closed. Rob says you can enter before the candle
closes but he waits and recommends you wait. After this trade, I would
definately wait also.

The second time was with my trade today. I
entered 2 candles late on the GBP/USD trade and set my stop without
reflecting the price 2 candles ago. If I would have set a stop based on
the price if I had entered 2 candles ago (when I should have) I would
have made MANY MANY pips today. Like I said before, I think I would be
in positive territory if I didn't make these mistakes.

Popularity: 7%

Rob Booker Training Update

Well, the bottom line is that since my first winning trade, I have had all losers.  It is quite discouraging but part of trading and training.  Rob really recommends using a demo account or a mini-account but I'm going to continue to chug along here.  I am using a lot of Rob Booker's methods with a touch of emotion so my results are in no way related to his performance.  I'll be entering my trades later today so everyone can view my performance so far.  They will be listed to the left menu in, My Trading History or the My Goal & Performance links.

I'm going to put together a spreadsheet for this week to more closely analyze my losses.  Rob Booker's methods for trading the 15 minute chart really don't give more than a 1:1 risk/reward ratio and going forward I would like to keep track of maximum drawdown so that I can see if decreasing the stop/loss is possible.   

Popularity: 7%

Rob Booker 1 on 1 Training Going Well

So I ended today up 26 pips which surpasses the goal I set in the beginning of the week which was to end the week up 20 pips.  The week hasn't ended yet though and I'm not going to stop trading because I'm learning. 

I know 26 pips doesn't sound like a lot but I really have to attribute this to Rob Booker.  I also have to admit that I really haven't talked to Rob much since starting the training but from his Chart School and other lessons I've been able to gain more confidence and clarity.  I'm thinking that I will have more questions once I'm a little furthur along.

Popularity: 7%

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