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Items Tagged With system

3 For the Day
Written By: Rich
2006-04-12 09:09:42

Image
Recovering From Big Losses
Big Losses are hard to take.  Rob Booker Helps You Recover

US Trade Gap Narrows More than Expected due to decrease in Chinese Imports

Check out Amateur Trade System Results at Collective 2

 

 



Week 15 performance
Written By: Rich
2006-03-17 22:21:25

This week was my 4th straight losing week.  I lost $1220 this week which drops my overall profit over 15 weeks to $1243.  Even though my P/L isn't looking good as of late, I really am not discouraged.  I have the confidence and determination to continue onward and I have the belief that I will be successful.  I am just going through the stages of learning and if it costs me money to learn, so be it. 

This week I used my first self designed trading system and followed through on every signal it gave me.  Unfortunately it is a range trading system and the EURO had some pretty nice gains against the dollar this week.  Therefore, my trading system did not perform well.  I will continue to use it.  I will stick by my hours upon hours of work. 



Magdalena Speaks About Her Forex Experience
Written By: Rich
2006-04-25 11:31:34

I like to post some of your comments sometimes because I find them so beneficial to my learning process and know that they can do the same for you.  This is an email I received from Magdalena yesterday.  I can totally relate to her comments because we are at similar stages.  Maybe you are to.

I started learning about Forex last October and was totally amazed for two reasons:

  1. The whole concept of trading FX seemed so perfect and natural that I felt like I discovered the best way to make a living there is.
  2. My master thesis was on hedging foreign currency transactions in international trade yet it has not occurred to me until then you can actually make money yourself trading forex.

I blame it on the fact that I got my master's in Poland and my home town university's curriculum missed a lot of practical and useful information, since I refuse to admit that it's probably me being a dummy and it never dawned on me before.   After an initial immersion into the market I opened my first demo and doubled it within a month without much effort and occasionally missing trading days. I didn't have any strategy whatsoever, I went with my gut feeling and basically after a while, my way to trade would be to open (I only traded EUR/USD) 2 positions on the same currency just in different directions waiting for each position to make a 10 pip profit. I didn't use any stops based on an assumption that what goes up must come down and vice versa - pretty naive thinking for someone who has degree in finance. It worked beautifully for a while though. Then came December and a couple of big loses that I had to take which pretty much ate all my profits from previous month. This is when I decided to actually learn something and went on a crazy search for a Holy Grail. I guess we all do that at some point :) Hundreds of websites, offers and promises. The only reason why I didn't buy any system or program is because  simply couldn't afford it. But I kept on looking and got every book from the local library that something to do with trading. And after a while I got to a point where I didn't know anymore what works what doesn't and worst of all I stopped trusting my own judgment. I was dazed and confused.   Then I bought Raghee's book and all of the sudden realized that there is no perfect system. That you can chose basically any strategy and if you have the discipline (the hardest part of it all !!!) to stick with it, you will become successful. So this is where I am at now... Trying to train my eye to see set ups as described in the book and get my personal feel for the market. So far I have found that I get some pretty good trading ideas, however my execution sometimes is not up to par.   I could ramble on about my trading experiences for hours since no on around me shares the interest...Right now I trade a small mini account just to get the feeling of the real account and hope that within next few month I will have enough to open standard account and will be consistently making profit.    
 

Talk to you soon,
   
Magdalena



Another tough week
Written By: Rich
2006-03-07 15:30:50

I had a pretty good CAD trade before my 3rd lot closed out this morning but I missed the bigger move upward.  No need to be greedy though.  Other than that, I've had a pretty bad week. 

I cannot say that there haven't been traces of impulsiveness but generally I've been following my stop loss and limits.  This is a good thing.  1 mistake that I have made was making 2 trades because of the advice of others.  This is where I lost a majority of my money this week.  There is no problem with taking the advice of another if you also did the research and study.  But what I did was blindly go with what 1 other person recommended.  I've been receiving John Carter's newsletter this week during a 2 week trial and his latest recommendations didn't work out.  This isn't a knock on him because you obviously have to expect losses.  What hurts more to me is that I was not in control enough of myself to make my own decisions.  The only decision I made was to read a newsletter and place a trade exactly as it was written.  If I didn't want to do any thinking, I shouldn't have been trading. 

What's done is done.  I always preach to myself to make my own decisions and live by them.  You cannot expect to make money by listening to a newsletter here and a newsletter there.  That's a good way to lose your money and fast.  If I subscribed to John Carter's trading room or was an avid follower of his newsletter, I might expect better results. 

One exciting thing this week has been the development of my 4th custom indicator.  Just like every indicator, it is just a derivative of price but it is suited to my preferences.  I can't say much more because I don't know if this indicator will work out yet.  I'm still testing it but the results look promising so much so that it surprised me.  I have a firm belief that there is no holy grail.  I understand that.  But there is a system that you can create that will work in certain market conditions that will consistently make money.  With my programming experience, it is my thought that if I can create such an indicator, it can be totally automated.  This doesn't mean that I don't want to study charts.  Supplementing this with a steady money making system is like having another employee working next to you making trades and money for you.  You have to give it direction but generally it works primarily on its own.



FP-1 Trading System
Written By: Rich
2006-03-14 22:08:55

I've started trading my new trading system which I've simply named FP-1.   I've been spending a lot of time tweaking it over the last couple of days.  I've made it quite simple to indicate a buy and a sell opportunity.  The red circle indicates a sell and the green circle a buy.  If you see a blue circle, this is a losing exit.  If you see a yellow circle, this is a winning exit.

FP-1 trading system 

 

 

 

 

 I just went went short on the EUR/USD where the last red circle is.



Developing a systematic approach to trading
Written By: Rich
2006-03-13 20:57:27

After days and days of backtesting, I think I have found a simple system that works for me.  I backtested it over the last 5-6 months on the EUR/USD 60-minute charts.  Of course I understand that there are no guarantees that this system will work well in the future too.  But it does feel really good to have designed a system that I can use going forward.  My goal over the next month or so is to trade religiously using this system and being the gambler I am do so using my live trading account.  It actually feels really great to have a system that is going to generate long, short, cover, and sell signals right on my charts.  Here are my backtested results:

Forex Trading System 

 

 

 

 



Mechanical versus Discretionary Systems
Written By: Rich
2006-03-22 09:27:55

After finally importing 2 more years of intraday data, my Dooku trading system has failed to backtest well using 4 years of intraday data.  Where does this leave me?  In a word, LOST.

I need to investigate furthur the recommended methods to backtest a trading system.  Of course I realize that past results don't guarantee future results but I need to understand it more.  1 question I need to ask myself is:  Will my system will be totally mechanical or a discretionary system?

Here are some good pros and cons of both:

Mechanical systems

Advantages
1. This kind of system can be automated and backtested efficiently.
2. It has very rigid rules. Either, there is a trade or there isn’t.
3. Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.

Disadvantages
1. Most traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data.
2. The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same.
3. A system that worked successfully the past year doesn’t necessary mean it will work this year.

Discretionary systems
Advantages
1. Discretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions.
2. Trading decisions are based on experience. Traders learn to see which trading signals have higher probability of success.

Disadvantages
1. They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a thought decision to be made.
2. It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way. At early stages this can be dangerous.


Do Trading Systems Work?
Written By: Rich
2006-03-17 08:25:42

I'm staying on the trading system subject today because I was reading a transcript of an interview performed yesterday between FXSTREET and Markus Heitkoetter, President of Rockwell Trading.   The subject was "Trading Systems: Do They Really Work?"

Markus' most important comments follow:

  • - Like all other ventures, "having a plan" will give you an edge
  • - A trading system consists of a set of rules; in it's simpliest form a trading plan (or system) has entry and exit rules.  More sophisticated trading plans include position sizing and money management
  • - You MUST have a trading plan to succeed
  • - At a minimum your trading plan should consist of entry and exit rules
  • - The 2 types of exit rules are stops (to protect your capital) and profit targets to realize profits
  • - The "lack of the trading plan" is the No. 1 reason why traders fail
  • - The easiest way to follow a trading plan is to automate it
  • - Trading with a system removes emotions from trading
  • - If you're looking for trading action, don't choose a trend-following system.

Here are the top six reasons why traders fail:

1.    Lack of a Trading Plan
2.    Lack of Discipline to Follow the Plan
3.    Failure to Control Emotions
4.    Failure to Accept and Limit Losses
5.    Lack of Commitment or stop trading using your system after the first loss
6.    Over-Trading

Trading a system helps you overcome the top six mistakes



A Forex Trader Speaks His Mind
Written By: Rich
2006-02-25 19:38:24

I'm posting an email I received from a fellow participant of Raghee Horner's webinars today.  He has been utilizing Raghee's methods for the last year and goes into the successes and failures he has had with them.  Keep in mind that he is a beaten down trader who started out with $30,000 and now has $3000 left.  I don't necessarily agree with everything he says.  I don't think because 1 person is unsuccessful at something that no one else has a shot.  One of his final sentences is "Do not think you're going to realize your dreams by day trading."  I don't believe this and won't believe this.  I feel like his story will be beneficial:

I would say her setups happen quite a bit if you scan all the pairs. I am not good at position trading or sitting on trades, so I found it really hard to utilize the large time frames. I like to be in and out, a day trader. Her system is like any system, it gives you a method for entries and exits. Each entry has 50% chance of moving in your direction and her method gives you a slight edge or helps you gain a higher probability of being on the winning side. No trading system is consistently profitable, your either on the winning side or your not. The key is to get in when your system tells you to, act on your systems signals, utilize stops or get out as soon as the trade tells you it's not going in your direction.

Click [Read More] to Continue 


Read More About A Forex Trader Speaks His Mind...


Dooku Reversal
Written By: Rich
2006-03-21 15:07:37

Sticking with my trading system to start the week off has paid off.  Dooku generated some realized profits this morning when I closed out 2 positions +$1000.  I have since reversed 1 position that Dooku generated after the exit. 

Trading with a plan is so much easier than trading without a plan.  Where the emotion was so evident before, now it just isn't as much of a factor.  I still don't know if this trading system is the answer to making a consistent profit but I like the feeling that having a plan gives me. 






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