Items Tagged With target

This is John's Trade Methodology:

HIS ANALYSIS?

Trade Idea:

Long EUR/USD on a bullish candle reversal (1 hour or 2 hour bullish Harami) that fails to sustain a break below 1.2240

Stops below 1.2210

Target 1.2330

Dollar forecast for the next 24hrs: Bearish

Stronger EUR/USD, GBP USD & AUD/USD

Weaker USD/JPY, USD/CHF & USD/CAD

Market Dynamics:

Favored - Cyclical & Regression Models 

At Risk - Trend Models

PFI exited its long EUR/USD trade this morning for 221 pips. For all practical purposes I could have stayed with it given the model bias remains bearish on the dollar.  That said, with a major event risk on the horizon (NFP on Friday) I've decided to stand aside for the balance of the week.

Today's price action will probably look a lot like yesterdays and will remain choppy through the day. This makes the target of the trade idea (1.2330) a tough task in the short term and could push traders into Friday trying to achieve it; which I don't encourage.  1.2240 and 1.2210 are Bollinger Band and ma support levels (different time frames) with 1.2330 bringing in substantial Bollinger Band resistance.

Overall the dollar is finding some support at our lower channel; it would be unusual for the dollar to sustain a push deeper into this region after floating across the top for any length of time. If we don't see a substantial pull-back to a more neutral position tomorrow, I'd almost expect to see NFP come out stronger than expected or an overall muted reaction to poor numbers, which will leave the market in good shape for a technical reversal at the beginning of the week.

TRADE

Date: Tuesday, February 21st

Entry: Short USD/CHF at 1.3082

Reason for trade/setup: Using the 240-minute chart, there was the presence of a downward trend line above.  In addition, a momentum indicator that I created and am currently testing indicated a short opportunity.  Furthur confirmation was obtained from the 3-period, 5-period Price oscillator using EMA and the continued downward movement of the 8-period, 21-period Price oscillator.  Stochastic crossover and a decreasing rate of change since early February provided double-secret confirmation.

Initial Stop:  1.3121, the high of the entry day.

Initial Target:  1.3050 then 1.2950 which are horizontal support lines.

RESULT 

Exit: 1.3121

Reason for Exit:  Stop Loss triggered

Profit/loss:  -38 pips

Trade executed according to plan? yes

Outcome: After trade entry, the pair had remained close with the downward trend line.  Volatility was non-existent during Asian session.  The USD was bullish going into the European session and the pair went as high as 1.3153 stopping me out of the position between 3 am and 7 am.  This trade never moved in my favor by more than a couple of pips.

Thoughts:  All the indicators in the world can't predict the future.  I seemed to have multiple confirmation, felt great about the trade, yet it didn't turn out well.  I feel good about executing the trade though because I didn't go against my plan.  I saw a possible setup and pulled the trigger.  If I could do it all over again I would make the trade again but may have waited for an increase in volatility.  In addition, I probably set my profit targets too high considering the lack of price action this week.

UPDATE!!!  The pair has dropped another 70 pips since I exited.  That is why I am far from reaching my goal.

TRADE

Date: Tuesday, February 21st

Entry: Short USD/JPY at 118.78.

Reason for trade/setup: This trade was mostly based on the fact that resistance was up above at 119.00.  Furthur confirmation was obtained from the crossover of the Stochastic (9(3),3) from overbought territory. 

Initial Stop:  119.06, which was 6 pips above the high of the entry day.

Initial Target:  118.00 which is the top of the Ichimoku Kumo or cloud.

RESULT 

Exit: 118.35

Reason for Exit:  Profit taking.  I needed to get back on track this week.  I couldn't leave $1000 on the table

Profit/loss:  43 pips / $1070

Trade executed according to plan? no; early exit

Outcome: After trade entry, the pair played with the 119.00 resistance level for the entire U.S. trading session before finally finding more sellers than buyers at the Asian open.  The pair then stalled at 118.40 during lunchtime in Japan on Tuesday evening.  The pair retraced almost back to the 119.00 mark on Wednesday during the European session before heading back down.  There is solid resistance at 119.00.  I exited the trade before my target.  The main reason was for my need to get back some of my losses from the week.  I didn't want to leave $1000 on the table.

Rob Booker for AUD/USD (4-hour chart):

I am considering two trades on this pair:

1. On a break below the redline, I think we can get all the way to the 38% retracement at .7219.  A break of that level should take us as far as .7180.
2. I would really like to see a resumption of the uptrend that we were in before – and this would happen above .7350.  On a break above that level, even to .7365, I like a long trade, stop .7300, target at least .7500.  More on that if the trade opens.

Just as everything seemed to be stabilizing on UK’s economic front, retail sales figures tell a different story. Figures released today indicate consumers have decreased spending in the New Year. Annual increase in sales was 1.3 percent, the lowest in more than a year. Most major retailers in the region have reported significant decline in sales.

The UK is Europe’s second-largest economy after Germany. Just yesterday the Bank of England had revised its growth forecast to beyond 2.7 percent. It had also indicated that inflation would stay within the 2 percent target for the next two years. House prices, meanwhile have increased for a third straight month in January.

An observation from Learn::Forex that may pique your interest.

Euro/JPY has our attention…

Why? 

Notice on a Daily chart we are attempting to push up into the zone of 145.00 although the momentum is clearly beginning to fall off. This is again confirmed with the 120 minute chart as well. This combine with the resistance area we are looking for a short opportunity anywhere from current price up to a retest of the 144.80/145.00 zone. Targets on the short side are 143.00 and if we get a clear break of 143.00 we could have a second target of 142.00. We would look to place a stop up above the 145.00 level.

From fxcmtr.com:

1 Hour Chart

I really like this one.  The trade would come on a close below the redline.  The profit target is all the way down at 1.3020, or perhaps 1.3060 for more conservative traders.  I would like to just use a 30 pip trailing stop on the trade.