This week PROFIT GOAL REACHED!
I carefully reached my profit goal in Week 4:
| Week # | Pip P/L | Gross P/L | Total # of Trades | Total Winning Trades | Total Losing Trades | Total Even Trades | Avg. Winning pips | Avg. Losing pips |
| 4 | 61 | $506.8 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 19.8889 | -16.8571 |
This week, I profited 61 p. If anyone remembers, my goal when I started Rob Booker training was to make a total of 60 p each week. Trading 1 lot at a time isn't going to allow me to do this for a living but increasing this to 3 or 4 lots will. I personally feel that a lot of people go into trading forex (myself included) with the thought that they need to profit many many pips each week. When I say many pips, I'm thinking over 200 or so pips a week. I hear how many traders not unlike myself profiting over 400 p for a given week which is absolutely possible but you also have to be honest with yourself. Can you consistently make 400 p a week? I don't think it is possible! Imagine the additional pressure you're putting on yourself when you're expecting even 200 p a week. I find that keeping a pip target low and then raising your lot count is a more realistic expectation.
The above trades were all day trades. I do not have any position trades open and really haven't in a long time. My goal is to continue day trading and then find position trades on longer term charts.
Making 61 p isn't easy. I made 18 trades, profiting on exactly half. I was very careful today and hesitated to make a short AUD trade which would have hit my target (30 p had I made the trade) because I was at +51 p and was satisfied with ending the week here. I did see another trade this morning though and took the chance of going long on the USD/CAD. I was still very careful placing a tight stop and only looking to stay in the trade if it went a little my way I got out of the trade quickly for a 10 pip profit bringing my total for the week at +61.
To be totally up front, I really haven't sent Rob Booker email in weeks nor have I been following his "Chart School" all that closely. I've been discretionary trading all week just like last and I don't know if it is a coincidence or not that I have been profitable both weeks. I'm not trying to apply any new techniques but just trying to become more intimate with the techniques and indicators that I already have. I haven't stopped learning or exploring new techniques or indicators but it really is just for exposure and because I feel the need to learn new things regularly.
I'm away until Sunday and will be back then to get ready for next week. I hope everyone caught some good trades this week. Take care.
Forex Mentor Reviews
I stumbled upon yet another useful website if you're looking for a mentor or just want to know which were reviewed well or poorly. Reviews are provided by users who post comments and a rating of SCAM, 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5.
Scam sites that I've seen in the past either via advertisement or Google Search:
-
WinningTradersAssociation.com – The one thing I can say about this site is that if you look like this guy, don't post your picture all over your website - 4xmadeeasy.com
Reputable mentors?
Take user comments with a grain of salt. Some of the comments are really good though. They range from really ANGRY users who had their accounts blown up in a matter of days to users that are extremely grateful.
My mentor, Rob Booker was reviewed so-so. Here are some comments about Rob that I found interesting:
THIS ONE I CAN RELATE TO.
"He was busy with too many
clients, with his own trading, and with some
side projects."
"Apparently Rob also
started a managed accounts service, which is a
nice proof that he actually trades himself.
His results from January 2006 to March 2006,
haven't been too impressive at only 3% gain for
three months, but what's encouraging is that Rob
is honest about it."
"…This is a very
expensive program for offering not much more
than rehashed information from so many trading
texts."
You can check out the reviews and comments for yourself. If anything, it opens your eyes even wider to the fact that you have to be responsible for your own account and analysis. If you have had enough experience and have learned what works for you, it's much more beneficial working on your own or with friends than ever signing up with a mentor. Would you be more angry if someone else told you to make a trade and you lost big money or if you told yourself to make a trade and lost big money?
Personally, I'd be a lot more steamed if I listened to someone else and lost.
http://www.forexbastards.com/education_reviews.shtml
Lessons Learned From Making a Little Profit Today
I have 2 totally different subjects I want to talk about today. The first relates to the question, "When are the best times to trade forex?" Now I can tell you that I used to trade whenever I felt like it. "I'm bored, let me trade during the Asian session. I'm bored, I want to trade in the afternoon, 3 pm EST." As an absolute beginner, you're told that Forex is a 24 hour market. YES, that may be true but a lot of you that have been doing this for a while know that just because it's a 24 hour market doesn't mean you actually should place a trade at any time around the clock. A lot of what I'm talking about relates to the shorter time frames and also if you want the best entry on longer term charts. Most of the time, if you trade outside of the European and US sessions (2 a.m. EST – 11 p.m. EST) your chances of getting stopped out definately increase from my experience. Of course you have a great chance of getting stopped out during the 2-11 time frame but you also have a greater chance of hitting your target. I've found the Asian session almost untradeable. There is absolutely no volatility or direction and the time it takes to watch the market isn't worth what you may get out of it. CORRECT ME if I'm wrong but if any of you have found a successful way of trading the Asian session, let me know. You could stick to higher volatility pairs like the GBP/JPY but with a 9-11 point spread, your already in the hole if you place smaller stop losses. After 11:30 a.m., there are times when you can catch some volatility but I generally exit my positions around lunchtime because a lot of the time you just get consolidation.
The second thing I want to talk about are my entry mistakes.
I think it is important to mention the numerous times that I have been burned when I've entered a position a bit too early. Generally I have 2 rules when channel trading during higher volatility sessions especially when I'm trading the 15 minute charts:
- Entering before the candle closes is a big NO-NO unless #2
- Allow the price to push at least 10 pips past your channel line
Today wasn't a bad trading day, I made $320 but should have made twice that amount. I entered long on the GBP/USD when it closed above the upper channel by 1 pip. The problem with this is that I'm putting too much faith in my charting software and not taking into consideration that momentum may have waned and this is just the tailend of the upward move. For example, forex quotes are not the same amongst brokers and software providers. An upper channel line drawn on Esignal chart may be different from an upper channel line drawn on a Tradestation chart. So just because the GBP broke the upper channel line on my Esignal chart today doesn't mean that it broke the upper channel line elsewhere! So I could have increased my chances of profiting if I would have given the price a little more breathing room. I'm learning from experience that not giving the price a little breathing room or not waiting for the candle to close can cost me money.
Top Market Moving Indicators
Like many Mondays, tomorrow probably won't be moved by the very latest economic release because there really aren't with 1 exception. At 9 a.m. tomorrow, the TIC report is released. This report measures demand for US assets and could be yet another nail in the dollar but I'll be watching just to see if this is a report that would move the market in the future. See Kathy Lien's study that puts TIC report at market mover #9 for first 20 minutes after release and #3 for the entire day.
I'm going to be releasing my Economic Release PDF again this week with comments. It looks like Wednesday (US CPI) and Thursday (Bernanke Speaks) are possible US session movers and there are a couple of other important non-US releases like the BOJ Interest Rate Statement on Friday (1 am EST.)
In much of my reading, I stumble upon useful bits of information. There was a study by Kathy Lien, an FXCM strategist, of the top market-moving economic indicators for the Dollar during the first 20 minutes following a release and for the rest of the day. These are ranked from highest average pip range and are only for the EUR/USD. Considering other pairs like the GBP/USD react more to these economic releases, the average pip range would be much higher.
First 20 minutes
- Unemployment (nonfarm payrolls) 124 p
- Interest rates(FOMC) 74 p
- Trade balance 64 p
- CPI 44 p
- Retail sales 43 p
- GDP 43 p
- Current account 43 p
- Durable Goods 39 p
- TIC data 33 p
Daily
- Unemployment 193 p
- Interest rates (FOMC) 140 p
- TIC data 132 p
- Trade balance 129 p
- Current account 127 p
- Durable goods 126 p
- Retail sales 125 p
- CPI 123 p
- GDP 110 p
It is interesting to note how the importance of economic reports actually changes over time. For instance, here is FX Dealer importance of Economic Data as of 1997 and as of 1992.
As of 1997
- Unemployment
- Interest rates
- Inflation
- Trade balance
- GDP
As of 1992
- Trade balance
- Interest rates
- Unemployment
- Inflation
- GDP
Video Journal – 30 pip GBP trade this morning
Here is my +30 pip trade this morning. Don't forget that I also had a -30 pip trade using the exact same logic but with the Yen.
Click [Read More] to see video.
Video Journal 9 pipper tonight
I pulled off a Double Zero trade tonight and added a Video Journal.
Click [Read More] to see Video.
Trading the News
Trading the news is something I've been trying to learn since I started Rob Booker "1 on 1" training. I'm finding that the potential to be profitable doing so is there. It does take time to learn though and the only way is to gain the actual experience of trading during volatile macroeconomic news reports.
Today, I traded the news and made 30 pips on 1 trade and lost 30 pips on another. Unfortunately during these times more than others, the price can swing wildly back and forth so the chances of your stop getting taken out quickly is a strong possibility. The key is obviously in the entry. You don't want to jump the gun and enter too quickly but you also don't want to enter too slow. I entered both positions today at the same time after the close of a 15 minute candle. These were both valid entries and both swung against me by more than 20 pips. The Yen swung too far against me and I was stopped out as mentioned previously. The Sterling swung about 25 pips against me (I had a 30 pip stop) initially and tried for an hour to move back in my direction. There was a point when my position was even and I could have gotten out of the trade unscathed. I decided to stay in because I've made the mistake of exiting right before the trade goes my way. The pair went 20 pips in my favor and I thought again that I should exit. I waited and waited. My limit was 30 pips. The pair was up 28 pips and I still waited. My target was hit and even though I'm even for the morning, it felt good to have shown a bit of restraint and confidence in my initial entry.
With that said, I wanted to mention a new article by Boris Sclhossberg that talks about exactly what I'm trying to learn; trading the macroeconomic news. It's a quick read and worth it if your interested in learning how to trade the news.
http://www.investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/forex/06/ScalpFundamentally.asp
Journal Entry for 46 pip profit trade last night
Click [Read More] to see video of EUR/JPY Trade last night, my first +40 pip profit trade in a long time.
Trading in La La Land
I've said this before but there is no easier way to take the emotion out of a trade by placing the trade, setting your stops and limits and going to bed. I made a decent trade last night going short on the EUR/JPY and woke up to a nice surprise, +42 pips (limit reached, trade closed.) I'll post the journal entry for this one later. I still see a favorable trade lower but I'm waiting for certain levels to hit.
Today should be quite a crazy day to trade. I already missed a trade at 7 this morning on the AUD/USD that I was going to go long on but thought twice because of a resistance line up above. I'm trying to show some discipline by not going into the trade 2 candles late. By then the risk/reward isn't what it was and it's a good way to lose money.
Have a good trading day and be safe.
Journal Entry – 11 pip profit this morning
Here is my attempt at a video journal. This is a movie of my trade this morning that netted 11 pips.
[Click Read More to see Video]
