Week 4 Performance
I'm done for the week. The channels were too wide in the GBP and Yen going into the US Session this morning and the CAD swung wildly up and down. I made no trades today. I'd also rather end the day and be up for the week. It's good for my psyche.
In my 4th post Booker week of trading, I managed to pull off a small profit of 14 pips or $111. Here are some more statistics from this week:
TOTAL # of TRADES
18
TOTAL Winning Trades
10
TOTAL Losing Trades
6
TOTAL Scratches
2
I feel like I went back to my "roots" this week. I'm trading like I did months ago when things were going more my way. The thing is, other than channel trading rules, a majority of my trades don't have any hard rules. Most were based on discretion only. Since I'm moving back towards this style of trading, maybe this is just what is needed. I was sending comments back and forth with a visitor to the site, Wim and Wim states that in 5 years of trading FX:
"I can tell you that a combination of a mechanical simple system and your own judgement will give you the best results…. Make your own judgement on trades!!!"
I've done a lot of reading over the past 12 months and a lot of it is repetitive. I've also been trying hard to go by what I've been told over and over again but maybe I've been wrong. Yes, some of the preachings are absolutely true like the recommendation to PLACE STOP LOSSES. But no one knows what your or my personality is. Just because a certain way of trading whether mechanical or discretionary works for 1 person doesn't mean it will work for you or I.
I look back at the first 11 weeks I was trading and I don't think it was beginners luck:
| Week # | Pip P/L | Gross P/L | Total # of Trades | Total Winning Trades | Total Losing Trades | Total Even Trades | Avg. Winning pips | Avg. Losing pips |
| 1 | 73 | $650.8 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 29.0000 | -20.2000 |
| 2 | 80 | $748.4 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 41.8750 | -19.6154 |
| 3 | -15 | $-55.1 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25.0000 | -57.5000 |
| 4 | -15 | $-242.2 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 31.2500 | -23.3333 |
| 5 | 289 | $2453.4 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 39.5833 | -23.2500 |
| 6 | -41 | $-619.5 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 24.8750 | -40.0000 |
| 7 | 189 | $1727.1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 23.6364 | -35.5000 |
| 8 | -214 | $-1782.6 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 44.0000 | -60.4000 |
| 9 | 169 | $1425 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 56.3333 | |
| 10 | 304 | $2598 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 101.3333 | |
| 11 | 71 | $742.2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 41.4000 | -45.3333 |
Yes, I made some mistakes but overall, I was doing something right. I was up $7700 after these first 11 weeks and this was mostly trading 1 LOT. I don't know what the future holds but we will definately see if my discretionary way of trading is what works for me.
Trading the News
Trading the news is something I've been trying to learn since I started Rob Booker "1 on 1" training. I'm finding that the potential to be profitable doing so is there. It does take time to learn though and the only way is to gain the actual experience of trading during volatile macroeconomic news reports.
Today, I traded the news and made 30 pips on 1 trade and lost 30 pips on another. Unfortunately during these times more than others, the price can swing wildly back and forth so the chances of your stop getting taken out quickly is a strong possibility. The key is obviously in the entry. You don't want to jump the gun and enter too quickly but you also don't want to enter too slow. I entered both positions today at the same time after the close of a 15 minute candle. These were both valid entries and both swung against me by more than 20 pips. The Yen swung too far against me and I was stopped out as mentioned previously. The Sterling swung about 25 pips against me (I had a 30 pip stop) initially and tried for an hour to move back in my direction. There was a point when my position was even and I could have gotten out of the trade unscathed. I decided to stay in because I've made the mistake of exiting right before the trade goes my way. The pair went 20 pips in my favor and I thought again that I should exit. I waited and waited. My limit was 30 pips. The pair was up 28 pips and I still waited. My target was hit and even though I'm even for the morning, it felt good to have shown a bit of restraint and confidence in my initial entry.
With that said, I wanted to mention a new article by Boris Sclhossberg that talks about exactly what I'm trying to learn; trading the macroeconomic news. It's a quick read and worth it if your interested in learning how to trade the news.
http://www.investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/forex/06/ScalpFundamentally.asp
Trading in La La Land
I've said this before but there is no easier way to take the emotion out of a trade by placing the trade, setting your stops and limits and going to bed. I made a decent trade last night going short on the EUR/JPY and woke up to a nice surprise, +42 pips (limit reached, trade closed.) I'll post the journal entry for this one later. I still see a favorable trade lower but I'm waiting for certain levels to hit.
Today should be quite a crazy day to trade. I already missed a trade at 7 this morning on the AUD/USD that I was going to go long on but thought twice because of a resistance line up above. I'm trying to show some discipline by not going into the trade 2 candles late. By then the risk/reward isn't what it was and it's a good way to lose money.
Have a good trading day and be safe.
Volatility this Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
I've been trying to keep on top of economic announcements because they are at the core of the Rob Booker channel trading strategy. I've created an Economic Announcement PDF with notes that were modified from material provided by Rob Booker.
According to the calendar, we can expect volatility in the market on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday this week. Before then, traders may be sitting on their hands waiting for Bernanke's announcement on Wednesday afternoon.
Forex Economic Calendar 08/05/2006,14:43 561.15 Kb
Soul Trader Quits Day Trading
I've been following Soul Trader's blog for some time now. He is a forex trader from England and announced on his blog today that he is quitting the day trading game. One of the big reasons for him quitting is that he just cannot take the frustration and pain of discretionary trading. He states that he will continue to trade his mechanical system but will give up on being an "active" day trader. His post today is actually a good read as he gives the following advice for all of us:
The only way to make it in Forex is to trade with a completely mechanical system
That's it. It seems like 5 years of day trading has taken its toll on Soul Trader and I cannot speak from experience or even disagree that a totally mechanical system is the only way to go. I've only been doing this for a little less than a year now and I still don't know what the best way to trade is. I know that is is totally possible to do this for a living but the chances are pretty damn slim. It been a educational ride so far and as the months carry on, an expensive one.
Week 2 Performance
After my 2nd full week of Rob Booker 1 on 1 training, my results have improved from last week, I only lost 153 pips! I'm being sarcastic and once again don't blame anyone for my results this week but myself. I made 17 trades this week, only profitable on 5. My average profit per winning trade was 18.8 pips and my average loss per losing trade was 20.58. Now it isn't unusual for traders to only "win" 5 out of 17 trades but when your risk/reward is only 1:1 like mine, it is difficult. That is why I find myself questioning Booker's channel trading strategies where most trades only give you the 1:1 risk/reward.
On an upbeat note, I ended the week on a 2 trade winning streak, my 1st was contrarian and my 2nd was during the jobs report on Friday. I actually have been quite successful trading the jobs report in the past and it was no exception on Friday. As I have done in the past, I drew channel lines for the high and low for the previous 12 hours or so. I placed a buy order 6 pips above the upper channel line with a 20 pip trailing stop. I placed a sell order 6 pips below the lower channel line with a 20 pip trailing stop. On Friday, the price broke the upper channel, my buy order was initiated and 15 minutes later was automatically closed when my trailing stop was hit with a profit of 30 pips. I could have made more if I didn't place a limit but I've never been greedy when it comes to taking profit. I'm a lot more stupid when placing stops.
May Issue of Currency Trader Mag Here Now
The May issue of Currency Trader Magazine has been released. The highlights of this month's issue include the following:
- Trading the Mexican Peso
- Interview with Money Manager Peter PanHolzer
- Forex Money Management Strategies
- The Euro Index
- Japan and the Yen: New Era or more of the same?
Content Removed: Download from http://www.currencytradermag.com
Throwing Money Out the Window
This is going to be a real quick post. I'll elaborate more when I have time later today. This week, I feel like I'm driving 85 miles an hour down Route 80 in a convertible with 1000 $10 bills just thrown on the seats and on the floor. You can imagine how quickly people would be slamming on the brakes to grab some money off the highway.
Out of total and utter frustration, I actually took the advice of 1 of you who stated that why not go Contrarian on yourself and if you are about to go long on a trade, go short instead. Well, not having a good trading week and unable to get any upward pip profit movement, I decided this morning to do the opposite of what "conventional wisdom" from my brain was telling me. WHAT DO YOU KNOW, a quick and easy 30 pip profit. If I had done this over the last 2 weeks, I would have been very profitable. I don't want to do this though and I don't even know if it could even be successful after a while. I'm thinking that it would be hard for me to continue to study the charts looking for a setup and then at the moment of execution, go opposite of what I think. Could doing this actually change the way I think about trading and mold my thinking to a profitable way? Would I subconsciously look for setups that were contrarian and then go opposite of this which would really just be doing what I'm doing now? Who knows.
Talk to you later.
Currency Trader Expo
I wanted to mention that FXCM is hosting a Currency Trader Expo in New York on June 3rd and June 4th. I've heard of this before but I just got something in the mail about it so I decided to take a closer look.
It looks like there will be a lot of traders/authors that a lot of us have heard of including Rob Booker, Alexander Elder, Jack Schwager, Kathy Lein, Boris Schlossberg, Steve Nison, and more. Most of the workshops are free (40 of them) except for a four that are under $200. The schedule looks packed with some great stuff.
I will certainly be attending for 3 reasons:
- I want to see the faces behind the words of these "successful" traders
- It may help in improving my trading
- I am 8 miles away from it so it's convenient
If you cannot make it, I will try to be your reporter. I'll take pictures, notes, and whatever else I can. We still have a couple of months to go though so I'll remind everyone beforehand.
Read more about the currency trader expo
Flogging Anyone?
I appreciate Greg's comments and agree with everything he says. In particular, I agree with the facts that:
- I am getting flogged. If this was actually happening physically, I'd be a bloody pile of mess.
- The 5% who consistently make money are taking the other 95%'s money (including mine)
The reality is that though I have lost money, it hasn't been more than $2000 (give or take a couple hundred.) It has cost me a lot more in time and effort. I don't consider the loss of thousands of dollars a waste considering the 6+ months of experience I have received. The $1000 for a mentor is also money that I feel is well spent even though the results have not been realized yet. I was chatting with Rob during the US session today and as far as I can tell, he is trading for real during these times. It is also no wonder that most mentors are probably failed traders that decided that they could do well teaching others a very difficult thing. This doesn't mean that they know how to make money trading forex. You can compare it to a professional sports coach who was never successful as a player but is as a coach. There are many examples of this. They aren't necessarily there to tell you what to trade but are there to prepare you for when you do decide to trade.
The goal of this site is to be truthful and honest. I can tell all of you that though I have thought about not posting a losing trade in my trade history because of fear from criticism, I never did not post it. I feel strongly that if you cannot be honest with others, you cannot be honest with yourself and therefore you will never learn.
As always I appreciate all the comments that come in and hope that I can and others can learn from this. If after 2 years, I'm still posting crap about losing, then shoot me down because I should not be doing this. I promise that I will not enter the world of mentoring either. I am not without faults in my trading (specifically with randomly trying things with real money, emotional trades, overtrades, and all the rest) but after 6+ months, I still have confidence I can do this for a living. It's not going to be easy but think of all the hope it will give others if I can manage to beat the odds.
Don't come to this site if you want trading advice (THAT'S FOR SURE… at least not yet) but if the 95% of you want to see someone going through exactly what you are going through, come on in. Post your comments because I truly respect every one of you that has and if I am successful, I will attribute it to you.
Enough of this Rah rah rah… After reading this over, it sounds like I'm about to cry…. 
