Items Tagged With usd

Colin from over at ForexSpirit feels like the dollar is going to appreciate this month especially after the cover story in the Economist.  I certainly wouldn't be surprised.  

You can read Colin's post, "The Economist's Indicator". 

Opinion piece, "The Panic About The Dollar" at Economist.com.

Opinion piece, "Losing Faith In The Greenback" at Economist.com. 

This is John's Trade Methodology:

HIS ANALYSIS?

Trade Idea:

Long EUR/USD on a bullish candle reversal (1 hour or 2 hour bullish Harami) that fails to sustain a break below 1.2240

Stops below 1.2210

Target 1.2330

Dollar forecast for the next 24hrs: Bearish

Stronger EUR/USD, GBP USD & AUD/USD

Weaker USD/JPY, USD/CHF & USD/CAD

Market Dynamics:

Favored - Cyclical & Regression Models 

At Risk - Trend Models

PFI exited its long EUR/USD trade this morning for 221 pips. For all practical purposes I could have stayed with it given the model bias remains bearish on the dollar.  That said, with a major event risk on the horizon (NFP on Friday) I've decided to stand aside for the balance of the week.

Today's price action will probably look a lot like yesterdays and will remain choppy through the day. This makes the target of the trade idea (1.2330) a tough task in the short term and could push traders into Friday trying to achieve it; which I don't encourage.  1.2240 and 1.2210 are Bollinger Band and ma support levels (different time frames) with 1.2330 bringing in substantial Bollinger Band resistance.

Overall the dollar is finding some support at our lower channel; it would be unusual for the dollar to sustain a push deeper into this region after floating across the top for any length of time. If we don't see a substantial pull-back to a more neutral position tomorrow, I'd almost expect to see NFP come out stronger than expected or an overall muted reaction to poor numbers, which will leave the market in good shape for a technical reversal at the beginning of the week.

TRADE

Date: Tuesday, February 21st

Entry: Short USD/CHF at 1.3082

Reason for trade/setup: Using the 240-minute chart, there was the presence of a downward trend line above.  In addition, a momentum indicator that I created and am currently testing indicated a short opportunity.  Furthur confirmation was obtained from the 3-period, 5-period Price oscillator using EMA and the continued downward movement of the 8-period, 21-period Price oscillator.  Stochastic crossover and a decreasing rate of change since early February provided double-secret confirmation.

Initial Stop:  1.3121, the high of the entry day.

Initial Target:  1.3050 then 1.2950 which are horizontal support lines.

RESULT 

Exit: 1.3121

Reason for Exit:  Stop Loss triggered

Profit/loss:  -38 pips

Trade executed according to plan? yes

Outcome: After trade entry, the pair had remained close with the downward trend line.  Volatility was non-existent during Asian session.  The USD was bullish going into the European session and the pair went as high as 1.3153 stopping me out of the position between 3 am and 7 am.  This trade never moved in my favor by more than a couple of pips.

Thoughts:  All the indicators in the world can't predict the future.  I seemed to have multiple confirmation, felt great about the trade, yet it didn't turn out well.  I feel good about executing the trade though because I didn't go against my plan.  I saw a possible setup and pulled the trigger.  If I could do it all over again I would make the trade again but may have waited for an increase in volatility.  In addition, I probably set my profit targets too high considering the lack of price action this week.

 Enough said...   

Source: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/11/07/8713/the-dollars-slide-13-down-and-falling-faster/ 

17 Reasons America Needs a Recession.

1. Purge excesses of housing boom.
2. Reverse dollar's free fall by giving government a wake-up call.
   
3. Expose Wall Street's shadow-banking system.
4. Force fiscal restraint back into government.
5. Wake up short-term investors.
6. Rating agencies have conflicts of interest and favor Corporate America.  Shake them up.
7. Trigger internal recession in China.
8. Force energy and auto industries to get serious about emission standards.
9. Expose core inflation.
10. Slow the Fed from cutting rates.
11. Force Washington to get honest about how it's going to pay for wars.
12. Expose CEO compensation.
13. Stop privatization of federal government.
14. Force congress to get serious about Social Security/Medicare disaster.
15. Pressure consumers to reduce spending and increase savings.
16. Lobbyists have replaced regulation.  Stop this.
17. America has always performed better during crisis'.

Read the entire are at Marketwatch.

While the last few months have witnessed rising talk of forex reserve diversification, China seems intent on preserving the status quo. Representatives from China's Central Bank recently announced that the nations foreign exchange reserves, which are already the largest in the world, would likely grow by at least $100 Billion in 2006. This is due both to the soaring current account surplus and the vast sums of foreign capital that continue to be invested in China. Further, the bulk of these new reserves will likely be held in USD-denominated assets, which are valued for their liquidity. Forbes reports:

Xinhua quoted Cao as saying that it would be unwise for China to sell off its dollar assets because they are still the most reliable assets in the world.

UPDATE!!!  The pair has dropped another 70 pips since I exited.  That is why I am far from reaching my goal.

TRADE

Date: Tuesday, February 21st

Entry: Short USD/JPY at 118.78.

Reason for trade/setup: This trade was mostly based on the fact that resistance was up above at 119.00.  Furthur confirmation was obtained from the crossover of the Stochastic (9(3),3) from overbought territory. 

Initial Stop:  119.06, which was 6 pips above the high of the entry day.

Initial Target:  118.00 which is the top of the Ichimoku Kumo or cloud.

RESULT 

Exit: 118.35

Reason for Exit:  Profit taking.  I needed to get back on track this week.  I couldn't leave $1000 on the table

Profit/loss:  43 pips / $1070

Trade executed according to plan? no; early exit

Outcome: After trade entry, the pair played with the 119.00 resistance level for the entire U.S. trading session before finally finding more sellers than buyers at the Asian open.  The pair then stalled at 118.40 during lunchtime in Japan on Tuesday evening.  The pair retraced almost back to the 119.00 mark on Wednesday during the European session before heading back down.  There is solid resistance at 119.00.  I exited the trade before my target.  The main reason was for my need to get back some of my losses from the week.  I didn't want to leave $1000 on the table.

I've been missing in action most of this week.  I've been recovering from my stomach bug and been taking some time off due to a hectic schedule and other responsibilities.  I haven't dedicated nearly enough time to the currency market or the Forex Project this week.  

It seems like my beginning of the week analysis of the EUR/USD was not too bad.  For those of you that don't remember, I was going to try to improve my technical analysis by "pretending" to be a Currency Strategist.  I use the word pretend by if you really think about it, we are all our own best Currency Strategist.  So though I was analyzing the market as if I was a Currency Strategist, the simple fact is that we are all Currency Strategists.  

My prediction from beginning of week was the following:

Prediction
EUR/USD may remain in the 1.2000 - 1.2200 range.  If the psychological important 1.2000 is broken, look for furthur downside to 1.1868.

Rob Booker for AUD/USD (4-hour chart):

I am considering two trades on this pair:

1. On a break below the redline, I think we can get all the way to the 38% retracement at .7219.  A break of that level should take us as far as .7180.
2. I would really like to see a resumption of the uptrend that we were in before – and this would happen above .7350.  On a break above that level, even to .7365, I like a long trade, stop .7300, target at least .7500.  More on that if the trade opens.

TRADE

Date: Friday, February 24th

Entry: Short USD/JPY at 117.05

Reason for trade/setup: With a downward trend in motion, I was looking for a swing trade to short the USD/JPY.  I was waiting for price to retrace back up where a minor Asian session breakdown occurred several hours prior at 117.10.  The DMI indicator was used as confirmation that the existing trend was still in place.

Initial Stop:  117.19; the high of previous bar

Initial Target:  116.40

RESULT 

Exit: 116.76

Reason for Exit:  End of day

Profit/loss:  +29 pips/ +$745.10 (3 lots)

Trade executed according to plan? yes

Outcome: This trade entry went exactly according to plan so much so that it surprised me.  The price didn't reach my limit and that didn't surprise me. 

Thoughts:  The market doesn't generate trades like this everyday and this setup would only apply to trending markets.