2 Weeks of Gains Gone

Just like that….  my gains from weeks 3 and 4 are gone and I'm sitting at -79 pips for this week.  It is quite frustrating that I worked so hard for a little pippage over the previous 2 weeks only to see them disappear in 4 days.  1 step forward, 2 steps back.

WARNING: The additional commentary below is very scattered and I'm just spewing it out of my head so it may be contridictory.

I have not been overly impulsive, stupid, or emotional with the trades I've made this week.  There were some trades where I exited early only to see the price continue in my direction but there were also trades that I exited early and then saw them turn against me.  

This leaves me at another important juncture in my forex trading career.  When I reach this point, I always ask the question, IS IT EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THERE TO BE LONG-TERM SUCCESS FOREX TRADING?  I wish I could answer this question now but the longer I do this, the longer I fear what the answer may be.  Just thinking about working for Corporate America the rest of my life is depressing. This fact alone can motivate me to continue because I know that in this world of trading, even though I've been trading for almost a year, this is still considered very beginner. 

It's times like these when risk/reward seems like the most important thing in the world.  

I've put so much time into learning how to trade Forex that I really think I'm at the point of no return. 

The highs and lows of trading is something that is not easy to take sometimes.  What I have to ask myself and what you have to ask yourself is if it is getting harder or easier to take as you do this longer.  For me, it seems to be getting a bit easier but not enough to quantify.

Look at my true risk/reward over the last 3 weeks of trading:

Week	P/L	Gross P/L	Avg Winning Pips	Avg Losing Pips
3	15	$111.1	12.8000	-18.8333
4	61	$506.8	19.8889	-16.8571
5	-79	$-748.9	9.7500	-23.6000

Look at the Average Winning column and Average Losing column.  If I average this weeks 3,4,5 my average winning pips are 14.18 and my average losing pips are 19.76.  This risk/reward isn't going to cut it.  Why is this happening? 

1. I'm scared.  I'm scared to give up tiny gains.  I exit my positions too early.
2. Rob Booker does not encourage great risk/reward for his trade strategies.  They are essentially 1:1 which means you have to have more winning trades than losing trades.
3. I'm trading the smaller time frame charts

Either way, it sucks that no progress has been made in my forex trading on paper.  I have learned a lot over the last year but until this is realized in money, I cannot consider this "project" successful.

I can see why there are so many damn mentors, training websites, and signal services.  If only 10% are successful trading, then you have the other 90% saturating the market with services that they provide because they couldn't cut it.   

So what is the point of this post.  It is a venting session that everyone needs and all of you need to try.  I feel much better now.  Feel free to click on the Submit Content link on the left menu to post your vent.  I will happily post it on the front page of the site alongside mine. 

The week isn't over yet and I'm making it sound like it is so things may be different tomorrow, maybe better, maybe worse. 

Popularity: 2%

This week PROFIT GOAL REACHED!

I carefully reached my profit goal in Week 4:

Week #	Pip P/L	Gross P/L	Total # of Trades	Total Winning Trades	Total Losing Trades	Total Even Trades	Avg. Winning pips	Avg. Losing pips
4	61	$506.8	18	9	7	2	19.8889	-16.8571

This week, I profited 61 p.  If anyone remembers, my goal when I started Rob Booker training was to make a total of 60 p each week.  Trading 1 lot at a time isn't going to allow me to do this for a living but increasing this to 3 or 4 lots will.  I personally feel that a lot of people go into trading forex (myself included) with the thought that they need to profit many many pips each week.  When I say many pips, I'm thinking over 200 or so pips a week.  I hear how many traders not unlike myself profiting over 400 p for a given week which is absolutely possible but you also have to be honest with yourself.  Can you consistently make 400 p a week? I don't think it is possible!  Imagine the additional pressure you're putting on yourself when you're expecting even 200 p a week.  I find that keeping a pip target low and then raising your lot count is a more realistic expectation.  

The above trades were all day trades.  I do not have any position trades open and really haven't in a long time.  My goal is to continue day trading and then find position trades on longer term charts.

Making 61 p isn't easy.  I made 18 trades, profiting on exactly half.  I was very careful today and hesitated to make a short AUD trade which would have hit my target (30 p had I made the trade) because I was at +51 p and was satisfied with ending the week here.  I did see another trade this morning though and took the chance of going long on the USD/CAD.  I was still very careful placing a tight stop and only looking to stay in the trade if it went a little my way  I got out of the trade quickly for a 10 pip profit bringing my total for the week at +61.

To be totally up front, I really haven't sent Rob Booker email in weeks nor have I been following his "Chart School" all that closely.   I've been discretionary trading all week just like last and I don't know if it is a coincidence or not that I have been profitable both weeks.  I'm not trying to apply any new techniques but just trying to become more intimate with the techniques and indicators that I already have.   I haven't stopped learning or exploring new techniques or indicators but it really is just for exposure and because I feel the need to learn new things regularly.

I'm away until Sunday and will be back then to get ready for next week.  I hope everyone caught some good trades this week.  Take care. 

Popularity: 7%

Week 4 Performance

I'm done for the week.  The channels were too wide in the GBP and Yen going into the US Session this morning and the CAD swung wildly up and down.  I made no trades today.  I'd also rather end the day and be up for the week.  It's good for my psyche. 

In my 4th post Booker week of trading, I managed to pull off a small profit of 14 pips or $111.  Here are some more statistics from this week:

TOTAL # of TRADES

18

TOTAL Winning Trades

10 

TOTAL Losing Trades

6

TOTAL Scratches

2 

I feel like I went back to my "roots" this week.  I'm trading like I did months ago when things were going more my way.  The thing is, other than channel trading rules, a majority of my trades don't have any hard rules.  Most were based on discretion only.  Since I'm moving back towards this style of trading, maybe this is just what is needed.  I was sending comments back and forth with a visitor to the site, Wim and Wim states that in 5 years of trading FX:

"I can tell you that a combination of a mechanical simple system and your own judgement will give you the best results…. Make your own judgement on trades!!!"

I've done a lot of reading over the past 12 months and a lot of it is repetitive.  I've also been trying hard to go by what I've been told over and over again but maybe I've been wrong.   Yes, some of the preachings are absolutely true like the recommendation to PLACE STOP LOSSES.  But no one knows what your or my personality is.  Just because a certain way of trading whether mechanical or discretionary works for 1 person doesn't mean it will work for you or I.  

I look back at the first 11 weeks I was trading and I don't think it was beginners luck:

Week #	Pip P/L	Gross P/L	Total # of Trades	Total Winning Trades	Total Losing Trades	Total Even Trades	Avg. Winning pips	Avg. Losing pips
1	73	$650.8	11	6	5	0	29.0000	-20.2000
2	80	$748.4	21	8	13	0	41.8750	-19.6154
3	-15	$-55.1	9	4	2	3	25.0000	-57.5000
4	-15	$-242.2	10	4	6	0	31.2500	-23.3333
5	289	$2453.4	20	12	8	0	39.5833	-23.2500
6	-41	$-619.5	14	8	6	0	24.8750	-40.0000
7	189	$1727.1	13	11	2	0	23.6364	-35.5000
8	-214	$-1782.6	7	2	5	0	44.0000	-60.4000
9	169	$1425	3	3	0	0	56.3333
10	304	$2598	3	3	0	0	101.3333
11	71	$742.2	8	5	3	0	41.4000	-45.3333

Yes, I made some mistakes but overall, I was doing something right.  I was up $7700 after these first 11 weeks and this was mostly trading 1 LOT.  I don't know what the future holds but we will definately see if my discretionary way of trading is what works for me.

Popularity: 5%

Week 2 Performance

After my 2nd full week of Rob Booker 1 on 1 training, my results have improved from last week, I only lost 153 pips! I'm being sarcastic and once again don't blame anyone for my results this week but myself.  I made 17 trades this week, only profitable on 5.  My average profit per winning trade was 18.8 pips and my average loss per losing trade was 20.58.  Now it isn't unusual for traders to only "win" 5 out of 17 trades but when your risk/reward is only 1:1 like mine, it is difficult.  That is why I find myself questioning Booker's channel trading strategies where most trades only give you the 1:1 risk/reward.  

On an upbeat note, I ended the week on a 2 trade winning streak, my 1st was contrarian and my 2nd was during the jobs report on Friday.  I actually have been quite successful trading the jobs report in the past and it was no exception on Friday.  As I have done in the past, I drew channel lines for the high and low for the previous 12 hours or so.  I placed a buy order 6 pips above the upper channel line with a 20 pip trailing stop.  I placed a sell order 6 pips below the lower channel line with a 20 pip trailing stop.  On Friday, the price broke the upper channel, my buy order was initiated and 15 minutes later was automatically closed when my trailing stop was hit with a profit of 30 pips.  I could have made more if I didn't place a limit but I've never been greedy when it comes to taking profit.  I'm a lot more stupid when placing stops.

Popularity: 5%

May 2nd NY Session

I'm in short trade right now, USD/JPY at 113.25 with a 30 pip stop.  It's currently down 15 pips.  I just really need a winning trade right now.  I'm not going to do anything stupid though and I'll follow the rules and hopefully I'll come out on top.  

I opened the trade at 8:30 am when we started to get some volatility.  It has since dried up.  There are no major economic releases today.

I'm about to get stopped out.  I have to admit that I'm fighting with myself over the stop.  I want to move it up so bad.  I won't touch it. 

I didn't touch it but I was stopped out.  Wow, I don't know how many trades I've lost in a row.  Since signing on with Rob Booker, I have 1 winning trade and 9 straight losers.   One thing is for certain, I'm great at picking the bottom when I'm shorting.

Trade Details

The red thumbtack is where I went short.  I was stopped out
2 candles later.  I went short after a close below my lower channel. 
The volatility dried up and the squeeze dissipated quickly after 8:30
am.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Popularity: 2%

Rob Booker Training Update

Well, the bottom line is that since my first winning trade, I have had all losers.  It is quite discouraging but part of trading and training.  Rob really recommends using a demo account or a mini-account but I'm going to continue to chug along here.  I am using a lot of Rob Booker's methods with a touch of emotion so my results are in no way related to his performance.  I'll be entering my trades later today so everyone can view my performance so far.  They will be listed to the left menu in, My Trading History or the My Goal & Performance links.

I'm going to put together a spreadsheet for this week to more closely analyze my losses.  Rob Booker's methods for trading the 15 minute chart really don't give more than a 1:1 risk/reward ratio and going forward I would like to keep track of maximum drawdown so that I can see if decreasing the stop/loss is possible.   

Popularity: 7%

FP-1 Trading System

I’ve started trading my new trading system which I’ve simply named FP-1.   I’ve been spending a lot of time tweaking it over the last couple of days.  I’ve made it quite simple to indicate a buy and a sell opportunity.  The red circle indicates a sell and the green circle a buy.  If you see a blue circle, this is a losing exit.  If you see a yellow circle, this is a winning exit.

 

 

 

 

 

 I just went went short on the EUR/USD where the last red circle is.

Popularity: 2%

Paid Seminars

I’m mentioning John Carter again because he is having a two-day online seminar this weekend that concentrates on trading the forex market.  I have never really paid for anything but books towards my education but I’m wondering if a paid seminar is beneficial.  ???  This is a question to any of you who have paid for seminars.  Are they worth it? 

Carter’s seminar this weekend is Saturday and Sunday for a total of 14 hours.  Here is the agenda:

- Your chance to see what you missed in Las Vegas

- Review Forex Market Basics (Everything you need to know to trade them)

- Trade by Trade Analysis with Real P&L’s for John’s 5K Account

- Major focus: Currency Market

- Get Insight into Key Winning Trade Setups

- Learn everyday Trading Strategies for the Currency Market

- View John’s Favorite Setups

The seminar is $995 and I cannot say that I haven’t been thinking about it.  You can read more on his website.  John Carter Seminar 

I would appreciate any comments that you may have. 

Popularity: 1%

A Forex Trader Speaks His Mind

I’m posting an email I received from a fellow participant of Raghee Horner’s webinars today.  He has been utilizing Raghee’s methods for the last year and goes into the successes and failures he has had with them.  Keep in mind that he is a beaten down trader who started out with $30,000 and now has $3000 left.  I don’t necessarily agree with everything he says.  I don’t think because 1 person is unsuccessful at something that no one else has a shot.  One of his final sentences is "Do not think you’re going to realize your dreams by day trading."  I don’t believe this and won’t believe this.  I feel like his story will be beneficial:

I would say her setups happen quite a bit if you scan all the pairs. I am not good at position trading or sitting on trades, so I found it really hard to utilize the large time frames. I like to be in and out, a day trader. Her system is like any system, it gives you a method for entries and exits. Each entry has 50% chance of moving in your direction and her method gives you a slight edge or helps you gain a higher probability of being on the winning side. No trading system is consistently profitable, your either on the winning side or your not. The key is to get in when your system tells you to, act on your systems signals, utilize stops or get out as soon as the trade tells you it’s not going in your direction.

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