Waiting on the Bank of Japan

July 13, 2006 by Trader Rich 

I am alive and watching the market somewhat.  I am watching what unfolds at midnight EST when the Bank of Japan announces whether they are increasing interest rates or not.  If they do, it would mark the first time in six years.  Supposedly, they are expected to raise rates by at least 25 basis points.  According to Kathy Lien, even if BoJ does raise rates, it doesn't necessarily mean bullish times for the Yen.  According to her, there are 3 possible scenarios that can happen tonight:

  1. Leave interest rates alone which would clearly be Yen bearish.  LONG USD/JPY
  2. Raise rates 25 basis points and signal that in the upcoming months more rate increases are expected.  This is clearly Yen bullish. SHORT USD/JPY
  3. Raise rates 25 basis points and indicate that just because they are raising rates now doesn't mean they will continue to raise rates.  This is a highly likely scenario and one which doesn't give a clear directional signal.

I don't know what I will do if anything to trade this pair tonight.  The pair is trading right now at its highest since the end of June at 115.87.

If you want to follow the Bank of Japans decision, go to http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/seisaku/kettei/index.htm  

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