Wanna Easy Profitable Forex Trading Strategy?
December 27, 2007 by Trader Rich
I started doing more probability testing over the last couple of days after I got my backtesting database all sorted out. I have seven (7) years of backtest data for the GBP/USD. My backtesting has been on trading in a direction based on the OHLC of a certain time period. For instance, take this example which turns out to be profitable over 7 years of backtest data.
- Look at an hourly GBP/USD chart. What color is the 4:00 a.m. EST candlestick?
The candlestick is green? Go long at 5:00 a.m. EST. Close the position at 12:00 p.m. EST.
The candlestick is red? Go short at 5:00 a.m. EST. Close the position at 12:00 p.m. EST.
Pretty easy. This is a strict day trade. Who cares about anything but the 4:00 a.m. candle. Sounds random, right? Who knows if it is or it isn't. All I know is that it turns out as the most profitable from what I've tested so far.
What do you set your stop loss to? You don't set one. This is a time-based stop loss. You will close the position at noon no matter what.
What is your profit target? Again, this is a time-based target. You will close the position at noon no matter what.
How profitable is this? Over the last 7 years, the short trades would have profited 4,636 pips. The long trades would have profited 7,510 pips. That's a total of 12,146 pips total or an average of 1,735 pips a year, 145 pips a month, or 7.25 pips a day (based on 20 day trading month.)
You may ask what type of drawdown this system will produce. I have those numbers too. The greatest loss from all short trades was 251 pips. The greatest loss from all long trades was 292 pips.
What is the greatest profit from a short and long trade? 225 pips and 256 pips respectively.
Is this a viable strategy? I have no idea. With a lot of capital, maybe. I'm just throwing it out and sharing. Don't take my word for it. I've validated the results but they're all dependent on the data provider. If you really think about it, trading a 1-lot mini-account, you're looking at a profit of $1735 for the year. This is peanuts and not worth the effort. Trading a 1-lot standard account, you're looking at a profit of $17350. Still peanuts. If I wanted to live off this one strategy, I'd really have to trade 6 standard lots which means my maximum loss could cost me $17520.00. Wow. If I wanted to only risk a maximum of 1% per trade, I'd need an account over 1 million dollars. Sucks. This just shows how hard it is to make money doing this if you don't already have a pretty sizable capital base.
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Hi,
That quite interesting! According to my calculations, if you had brought GBP/USD back in 2001 you would have earned ~3 pips a day in average, so with 7 pips per day you\’re definitely outperforming the market! How was the performance for each year, e.g. what was the result between 1st of Jan. 2005 to the 1st of Jan 2006?
Thanks for sharing, I really enjoy reading your blog!
Cheers,
Bjarne
Any edge you find in the a market as efficient as forex is never going to be big, but an edge is an edge. I’m not sure what you mean by ‘not worth the effort’, just write an EA and let it go.